Posted at 03 June 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia Business inventories (MoM) (Q1) 0.8%, 0.2%forecast, 0.2% previous
• Australia Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) (Q1) -0.5%, 1.4% forecast, 6.0% previous
• Australia Company Profits Pre-Tax (QoQ) (Q1) 0.7%, 4.8% previous
• Australia Current Account (Q1) -14.7B, -12.3B forecast, -12.5B previous
• Australia Net Exports Contribution (Q1) -0.1%, -0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (May) 48.3, 50.8 forecast,50.4 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 07:00 Spanish Unemployment Change (May) -67.4K previous
• 08:00 Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Apr) 6.1% forecast,6.0% previous
• 08:40 Spanish 12-Month Letras Auction 1.886% previous
• 08:40 Spanish 6-Month Letras Auction 1.937% previous
• 09:00 EU Core CPI (MoM) (May) 1.0% previous
• 09:00 EU Core CPI (YoY) (May) 2.4% forecast, 2.7% previous
• 09:00 EU CPI (MoM) (May) 0.6% previous
• 09:00 EU CPI (YoY) (May) 2.0% forecast, 2.2% previous
• 09:00 EU CPI, n.s.a (May) 128.77 previous
• 09:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (May) 2.4% forecast, 2.7% previous
• 09:00 EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (May) 0.9% previous
•09:00 EU Unemployment Rate (Apr) 6.2% forecast, 6.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•01:30 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as markets shifted focus to the European Central Bank's upcoming rate decision. The ECB is widely expected to lower its main borrowing rate on Thursday to 2%, half what it was at its peak a year ago and less than half the Federal Reserve equivalent. It's also back to what the central bank broadly considers a 'neutral' level, meaning it neither spurs nor reins in the economy. The expected rate cut reflects easing inflationary pressures across the euro area and a broader effort by the ECB to support economic activity, which has remained sluggish in recent quarters. Investors will be closely watching not only the rate decision itself but also ECB President Christine Lagarde’s remarks, which could provide insight into the central bank’s future policy direction. The euro slid 0.2% after briefly touching a six-week high of $1.1454.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1460(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1496(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1304(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1173(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound eased on Tuesday as erratic U.S. trade policies clouded market sentiment and investors turned defensive ahead of key developments later in the week. U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will probably speak this week, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Monday, days after Trump accused Beijing of violating an agreement to roll back tariffs and trade restrictions. The call between the two leaders will be closely watched by markets, which have been roiled by tariff-induced trade tensions between the world's two largest economies that continue to simmer. Data on Monday showed U.S. manufacturing contracted for a third straight month in May and suppliers took the longest time in nearly three years to deliver inputs amid tariffs. .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3579(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3611(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3452(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3339(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar weakened on Tuesday, pressured by cautious sentiment following the release of the RBA Minutes and disappointing economic data from China.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) warned that rising U.S. tariffs could pose risks to global growth and drive down traded goods prices in the short term, though the overall impact remains uncertain due to ongoing policy volatility. RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter, speaking in Brisbane, emphasized that the central bank is closely watching global trade developments, as increased uncertainty could negatively affect investment, economic output, and employment.Adding to the pressure, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly in May, slipping to 48.3 from 50.4 in April—the first contraction in eight months and below market forecasts. The weak reading raised concerns about slowing demand in Australia’s largest trading partner, further weighing on the Aussie dollar.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6497(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6515(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6429(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6373(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher but gains were limited against the Japanese yen on Tuesday as concerns over U.S.-China trade tensions overshadowed hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to speak this week, following Trump’s accusation that China breached their tariff rollback agreement. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated the central bank would consider raising interest rates once it sees a solid recovery in economic and price growth. He also indicated that bond purchase tapering will continue beyond March, reinforcing the BOJ’s gradual shift away from its ultra-loose monetary policy.Markets remain focused on the anticipated U.S.-China talks, with ongoing tariff-related tensions between the two economic powers keeping investors cautious. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.26 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.28(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.66(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian shares rose slightly on Tuesday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of key economic events and developments expected later in the week.
Japan’s Nikkie was down 0.05% , South Korea's KOSPI was up 0.05%,Hang Seng was up by 1.49%.
Commodities Recap
Gold eased on Tuesday, pulling back from a nearly 4-week high as investors booked profits and adopted a cautious stance ahead of key economic data and central bank decisions later this week.
Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3,365.22 an ounce as of 0603 GMT, after hitting its highest since May 8 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures eased 0.2% to $3,390.10.
Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday amid supply concerns, as Iran is poised to reject a U.S. nuclear deal proposal crucial for easing sanctions on the major oil producer.
Brent crude futures gained 12 cents, or 0.19%, to $64.75 a barrel by 0627 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 20 cents, or 0.32%, to $62.72 a barrel, after rising about 1% earlier in the session.