Posted at 31 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Apr): 2.5%, 2.5% forecast, 2.7% previous
•US Goods Trade Balance (Apr): -87.62B, -142.80B forecast, -162.25B previous
•US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Apr): 2.1%, 2.2% forecast, 2.3% previous
•US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Apr): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
•US Personal Income (MoM) (Apr): 0.8%, 0.3% forecast, 0.7% previous
•US Personal Spending (MoM) (Apr): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.7% previous
•US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Apr): 0.1%, 0.7% previous
•US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Apr): 0.3%, 0.3% previous
•US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Apr): 0.0%, 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
•Canada GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q1): 0.60%, 0.90% previous
•Canada GDP (MoM) (Mar): 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous
•Canada GDP (YoY) (Q1): 2.31%, 2.29% previous
•Canada GDP (QoQ) (Q1): 0.5%, 0.5% previous
•Canada GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q1): 2.2%, 1.7% forecast, 2.1% previous
•Canada GDP (MoM) (Apr): 0.1% , 0.1% previous
•US Chicago PMI (May): 40.5, 45.1 forecast, 44.6 previous
•US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (May): 6.6%, 7.3% forecast, 6.5% previous
•US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (May): 4.2%, 4.6% forecast, 4.4% previous
•US Michigan Consumer Expectations (May): 47.9, 46.5 forecast, 47.3 previous
•US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May): 52.2, 50.8 forecast, 52.2 previous
•US Michigan Current Conditions (May): 58.9, 57.6 forecast, 59.8 previous
•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2): 3.8%, 2.2% forecast, 2.2% previous
•Canada Budget Balance (Mar): -23.88B, 7.57B previous
•Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (Mar): -43.15B, -19.27B previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 461, 465 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 563 ,566 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro weakened on Friday as investors digested German and US economic data. Data released on Friday showed that German retail sales fell by 1.1% in April compared to the previous month. In the United States, consumer spending saw a modest increase in April, reflecting a slowdown after a surge driven by efforts to avoid higher prices resulting from import duties, while inflation eased during the same period. Additionally, a separate report revealed that the U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed significantly in April, as the earlier boost from advance importing ahead of tariff hikes diminished. Looking ahead, May’s jobs report, scheduled for release next Friday, will be closely monitored for signs of weakening in the labor market, especially following Thursday’s data showing a larger-than-expected rise in weekly jobless claims.The euro was last down 0.12% at $1.1356. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1397(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1429(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1287(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1160(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound dipped as investors weighed the possibility that trade tariffs would stay in place despite President Trump’s legal challenges. A federal appeals court on Thursday temporarily reinstated President Trump's broad tariffs, just a day after a trade court ruled he had overstepped his authority and ordered them blocked. While the final scope remains uncertain, traders widely anticipate that some form of the tariffs will stay in place. Investors remain worried that tariffs could hamper growth and fuel inflation, though recent agreements to pause tariff hikes on China and the EU during trade talks have helped ease concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3558(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3636(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3398(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3249(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Friday, supported by stronger-than-expected economic growth that raised expectations the Bank of Canada (BoC) will keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting. Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 2.2% in the first quarter, well above economists’ forecast of a 1.7% increase. This growth was partly driven by U.S. companies accelerating purchases of Canadian goods ahead of planned tariffs. Additionally, monthly GDP data showed a 0.1% increase in March compared to February, with a preliminary estimate for April also indicating a 0.1% gain. Based on these figures, investors currently assign roughly a 75% probability that the BoC will maintain its benchmark interest rate at 2.75% when it announces its decision on Wednesday.The loonie was trading 0.4% higher at 1.3750 per U.S. dollar . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3854 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3947 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3717(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3657(Lower BB )
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar weakened against the Japanese yen following data showing that Tokyo’s core inflation reached a two-year high in May, increasing the likelihood of additional interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food, rose 3.6% year-over-year, exceeding the expected 3.5% and up from 3.4% in April. Meanwhile, a broader inflation measure that excludes both fresh food and fuel—closely watched by the BoJ—rose 3.3% year-on-year in May, up from 3.1% in March. These inflation figures bolster the argument for the BoJ to maintain a hawkish monetary policy as it aims to anchor inflation expectations and achieve its price stability goals. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.73 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.15(50%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.70(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.74(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
European stock markets closed modestly higher on Friday, with major indices posting slim gains as investors weighed a mix of corporate earnings, macroeconomic data.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.64 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.27 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.36 percent.
The S&P 500 closed mostly flat Friday despite volatility, as Trump criticized China but remained hopeful on a trade deal. It posted its biggest monthly gain since November 2023.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.13 %percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.01% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.32% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dipped Friday as the dollar rose and markets reacted to tariff news, while weaker inflation boosted hopes for a U.S. rate cut.
Spot gold was down 0.7%, at $3,293.59 an ounce, as of 02:26 pm ET (1826 GMT) and was down 1.9% so far this week.U.S. gold futures settled 0.9% lower at $3,315.40.
U.S. crude futures dropped Friday as traders anticipated OPEC+ would increase July oil output beyond earlier estimates.
Brent crude futures settled down 25 cents, or 0.39%, at $63.90 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished down 15 cents, or 0.25%, at $60.79 a barrel, having earlier dropped more than $1 a barrel.