Posted at 30 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Finnish GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.0%, 0.2%forecast,0.2% previous
• Sweden GDP (YoY) (Q1) 0.9%,1.1%forecast,2.4% previous
• Sweden GDP (QoQ) (Q1) -0.2%,0.0%forecast,0.8%previous
•Germany Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr): 2.3%, 1.8% forecast, 1.3% previous.
•Germany Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr): -1.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.9% previous.
•Switzerland Official Reserves Assets (Apr): 806.1B, 830.1B previous.
•Italy GDP (QoQ) (Q1): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•Italy GDP (YoY) (Q1): 0.7%, 0.6% forecast, 0.5% previous.
•Eurozone M3 Money Supply (Apr): €16,901.4B, €16,845.5B previous.
•Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Apr): 3.9%, 3.7% forecast, 3.6% previous.
•Eurozone Loans to Non-Financial Corporations (Apr): 2.6%, 2.4% previous.
•Eurozone Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Apr): 1.9%, 1.8% forecast, 1.7% previous.
•Italy CPI (YoY) (May): 1.7%, 1.7% forecast, 1.9% previous.
•Italy CPI (MoM) (May): 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous.
•Italy HICP (MoM) (May): 0.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.4% previous.
•Italy HICP (YoY) (May): 1.9%, 1.9% forecast, 2.0% previous.
•German CPI (YoY) (May) 2.1% ,2.0% forecast, 2.1%previous.
•German CPI (MoM) (May) 0.1%,0.1% forecast, 0.4%previous.
•German HICP (MoM) (May) 0.2%,0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:30 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Apr): 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous.
• 12:30 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Apr): 2.5% forecast, 2.6% previous.
• 12:30 US Goods Trade Balance (Apr): -142.80B forecast, -161.99B previous.
• 12:30 US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Apr): 2.2% forecast, 2.3% previous.
• 12:30 US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Apr): 0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous.
• 12:30 US Personal Income (MoM) (Apr): 0.3% forecast, 0.5% previous.
• 12:30 US Personal Spending (MoM) (Apr): 0.2% forecast, 0.7% previous.
• 12:30 US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Apr): 0.7% previous.
• 12:30 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Apr): 0.4% previous.
• 12:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Apr): 0.4%, 0.4% previous.
• 12:30 Canada GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q1): 0.90% previous.
• 12:30 Canada GDP (MoM) (Mar): 0.1%, -0.2% forecast.
• 12:30 Canada GDP (YoY) (Q1): 2.36% previous.
• 12:30 Canada GDP (QoQ) (Q1): 0.6% previous.
• 12:30 Canada GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q1): 1.7% forecast,, 2.6% previous.
•13:30 US Dallas Fed PCE (Apr): 1.80% previous.
•13:45 US Chicago PMI (May): 45.1 forecast,, 44.6 previous.
•14:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (May): 7.3% forecast,, 6.5% previous.
•14:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (May): 4.6% forecast,, 4.4% previous.
•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (May): 46.5 forecast,, 47.3 previous.
•14:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May): 50.8 forecast,, 52.2 previous.
•14:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (May): 57.6 forecast, 59.8 previous.
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (Mar): -19.27B previous.
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (Mar): 7.57B previous.
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 465 previous.
•17:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 566 previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro weakened on Friday as investors awaited Germany’s May inflation figures, looking for signals on the European Central Bank’s next policy moves. Meanwhile, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington temporarily reinstated Trump-era tariffs on Thursday while reviewing the government’s appeal. This reversal followed a recent ruling by a lower trade court, which had blocked the tariffs on the grounds that former President Trump overstepped his authority, since tariff powers rest with Congress rather than the executive branch. Despite the ongoing legal uncertainty, the Trump administration emphasized that trade negotiations with key partners are continuing uninterrupted, minimizing immediate disruptions to global trade flows. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. unit against a basket of six other currencies, was 0.05% higher at 99.39. The euro was down at $1.1340. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1397(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1429(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1287(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1160(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound dipped as traders prepared for increased uncertainty surrounding trade policy and U.S. fiscal health, while awaiting key inflation reports scheduled for later in the day. On Thursday, former President Trump expressed hope that the Supreme Court would overturn a recent trade court ruling blocking his tariffs. Meanwhile, officials signaled they might use other presidential powers to ensure the tariffs remain in place.This tariff uncertainty has tightened its grip on markets, prompting investors to reduce exposure to U.S. assets amid concerns that Trump’s unpredictable policies could undermine the strength and performance of U.S. markets. Attention is now focused on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) report—due later on Friday, which could provide important signals for monetary policy direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3558(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3588(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3393(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3257(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Friday as weaker-than-expected domestic retail data and broader risk off sentiment weighed on Australian dollar. Australian retail sales unexpectedly dipped in April, as warm weather dampened winter clothing demand and fewer discount events hit department stores, highlighting cautious consumer behavior. Australian Bureau of Statistics showed retail sales fell 0.1% in April, missing forecasts of a 0.3% rise and ending a three-month growth streak. Markets now await the U.S. core PCE price index at 12:30 GMT, expected at 2.5% y/y. As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, it could shape rate outlooks. At GMT 12:20, the Australian dollar was down 0.07% to 0.6432 against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6498(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6515(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6414(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6375(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against the Japanese yen on Friday after data showed Tokyo’s underlying inflation hit a two-year high in May, boosting chances of more BoJ rate hikes.Core inflation in Tokyo reached a more than two-year high on Friday, driven by rising food costs, increasing pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates further. The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), excluding fresh food, rose 3.6% year-on-year in May, surpassing forecasts of 3.5% and up from April’s 3.4% increase. A separate index excluding both fresh food and fuel costs, closely monitored by the BOJ as a broader inflation gauge, rose 3.3% year-on-year in May, up from 3.1% in March.Data strengthens the case for the BoJ to maintain its hawkish stance as it seeks to anchor inflation expectations and support its price stability target. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.00 (Psychological level)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.48(50%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.44(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.64(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
European stocks were on track for their strongest monthly gain since January, supported by easing market volatility and optimism over the global trade outlook, as investors assessed developments in U.S. tariff policy and upcoming economic data.
At GMT (12:10) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.38 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.34 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.09 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Friday as the U.S. dollar strengthened and investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of key U.S. inflation data due later in the day, which could offer fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Spot gold was down 0.7% at $3,292.28 an ounce as of 1145 GMT. Bullion is down 1.9% so far this week.U.S. gold futures fell 0.8% to $3,290.30.
Oil prices steady on Friday, facing a second weekly drop amid OPEC+ output hike expectations and ongoing U.S. tariff uncertainties.
Brent crude futures gained 23 cents, or 0.36%, to $64.38 a barrel by 0949 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose by 32 cents, or 0.53%, to $61.26 a barrel.