Posted at 30 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Japan Jobs/Applications Ratio (Apr): 1.26, 1.26 forecast, 1.26 previous.
•Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (May): 3.6%, 3.5% forecast, 3.4% previous.
•Japan Tokyo CPI (YoY) (May): 3.4%, 3.4% previous.
•Japan CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (May): 0.1%, 0.7% previous.
•Japan Unemployment Rate (Apr): 2.5%, 2.5% forecast, 2.5% previous.
•Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Apr): -0.9%, -1.4% forecast, 0.2% previous.
•Japan Industrial Production Forecast 1M Ahead (MoM) (May): 9.0%, 1.3% previous.
•Japan Industrial Production Forecast 2M Ahead (MoM) (Jun): -3.4%, 3.9% previous.
•Japan Large Retailers' Sales (MoM): 0.5%, -1.2% previous.
•Japan Large Scale Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr): 3.0%, 3.0% previous.
•Japan Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr): 3.3%, 2.9% forecast, 3.1% previous.
• Australia Building Approvals (YoY) (Apr): 5.1%, 11.1% previous.
• Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Apr): -5.7%, 3.1% forecast, -7.1% previous.
• Australia Housing Credit (Apr): 0.5%, 0.4% previous.
• Australia Private House Approvals (Apr): 3.1%, -1.9% previous.
• Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Apr): 0.7%, 0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous.
• Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr): -0.1%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous.
•Japan Construction Orders (YoY) (Apr) 52.7%, 3.5% previous.
•Japan Housing Starts (YoY) (Apr) -26.6%,-18.2% forecast, 39.1% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:00 German CPI (YoY) (May): 2.4% previous.
•08:00 German CPI (MoM) (May): 0.5% previous.
•08:00 German CPI (MoM) (May): 0.4% previous.
•08:00 German CPI (YoY) (May): 2.1% previous.
•08:00 German CPI (MoM) (May): 0.4% previous.
•08:00 German e CPI (YoY) (May): 2.2% previous.
•08:00 German CPI (YoY) (May): 2.3% previous.
•08:00 German CPI (MoM) (May): 0.5% previous.
•08:00 German e CPI (YoY) (May): 1.8% previous.
•08:00 Germany North Rhine Westphalia CPI (MoM) (May): 1.8% previous.
•08:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply (Apr): €16,845.5B previous.
•08:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Apr): 3.7% forecast, 3.6% previous
•08:00 Eurozone Loans to Non-Financial Corporations (Apr): 2.3% previous.
•08:00 Eurozone Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Apr): 1.8% forecast, 1.7% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro weakened on Friday as traders awaited May inflation data from Germany, seeking clarity on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy outlook. Meanwhile, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in Washington on Thursday temporarily reinstated Trump's tariffs, pending a review of the government’s appeal. This came just a day after a lower trade court blocked the duties, ruling that Trump had exceeded his authority, as tariff powers lie with Congress, not the executive branch. Despite the legal back-and-forth, the Trump administration stated that negotiations with major trading partners are continuing without disruption, suggesting limited immediate impact on trade flows. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. unit against a basket of six other currencies, was 0.17% higher at 99.506. The euro was down at $1.1340. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1397(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1429(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1287(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1160(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound dipped as traders braced for further uncertainty around trade policy and U.S. fiscal health while awaiting pivotal inflation reports later in the day.Trump on Thursday said he hoped the Supreme Court would overturn the trade court's decision, while officials also indicated that they could employ other presidential powers to ensure the tariffs take effect.The uncertainty around tariffs has taken a vice-like grip on markets as investors flee U.S. assets looking for alternatives, worried that Trump's erratic policies could challenge the strength and outperformance of U.S. markets. Investor focus now shifted to Federal Reserve's preferred inflation data - the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) report later on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3558(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3588(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3393(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3257(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Friday as weaker-than-expected domestic retail data and broader risk off sentiment weighed on Australian dollar. Australian retail sales unexpectedly dipped in April, as warm weather dampened winter clothing demand and fewer discount events hit department stores, highlighting cautious consumer behavior. Australian Bureau of Statistics showed retail sales fell 0.1% in April, missing forecasts of a 0.3% rise and ending a three-month growth streak. Markets now await the U.S. core PCE price index at 12:30 GMT, expected at 2.5% y/y. As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, it could shape rate outlooks. At GMT 05:40, the Australian dollar was down 0.06% to 0.6437against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6498(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6515(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6414(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6375(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped against the Japanese yen on Friday after data showed Tokyo’s underlying inflation hit a two-year high in May, boosting chances of more BoJ rate hikes.Core inflation in Tokyo reached a more than two-year high on Friday, driven by rising food costs, increasing pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates further. The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), excluding fresh food, rose 3.6% year-on-year in May, surpassing forecasts of 3.5% and up from April’s 3.4% increase. A separate index excluding both fresh food and fuel costs, closely monitored by the BOJ as a broader inflation gauge, rose 3.3% year-on-year in May, up from 3.1% in March.Data strengthens the case for the BoJ to maintain its hawkish stance as it seeks to anchor inflation expectations and support its price stability target. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.00 (Psychological level)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.48(50%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.44(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.64(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
Asian stocks slipped on Friday, and the U.S. dollar weakened alongside Treasury yields, as investors reacted to an appeals court decision allowing President Donald Trump's tariffs to remain in effect—reversing optimism from the previous day's ruling that had blocked most of them..
Japan’s Nikkei was down 1.25% , South Korea's KOSPI was up 0.84%,Hang Seng was down by 1.38 %.
Commodities RecaP
Gold prices fell on Friday and were on track for a weekly loss, pressured by a slight rebound in the U.S. dollar.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $3,303.51 an ounce, as of 0601 GMT. Bullion is down 1.6% so far this week.U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to $3,300.70.
Oil prices headed for a second straight weekly decline on Friday, pressured by expectations of another OPEC+ output increase in July and renewed uncertainty following a legal ruling that upheld U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs.
Brent crude futures slipped 21 cents, or 0.33%, to $63.94 a barrel by 0626 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 22 cents, or 0.36%, to $60.72 a barrel. The Brent July futures contract is due to expire on Friday.