Posted at 29 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Italian Business Confidence (May): 86.5, 86.2 forecast, 85.8 previous.
• Italian Consumer Confidence (May): 96.5, 93.0 forecast, 92.7 previous.
• Italian Industrial Sales (MoM) (Mar): -1.60%, -0.40% previous.
• Italian Industrial Sales (YoY) (Mar): -1.10%, -1.60% previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims : 1,890K forecast, 1,903K previous
•12:30 US Core PCE Prices QoQ (Q1): 3.50% forecast, 2.60% previous
•12:30 US Corporate Profits QoQ (Q1): 5.9% forecast, -0.4% previous
•12:30 US GDP QoQ (USD, Q1): -0.3% forecast, 2.4% previous
•12:30 US GDP Price Index QoQ : 3.7% forecast, 2.3% previous
•12:30 US GDP Sales -2.5% forecast, 3.3% previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 229K forecast, 227K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 231.50K previous
•12:30 US PCE Prices QoQ (Q1): 3.6% forecast, 2.4% previous
•12:30 US Real Consumer Spending (Q1): 1.8% forecast, 4.0% previous
•12:30 US Average Weekly Earnings YoY (Mar): 5.40% previous
•14:00 US Pending Home Sales MoM -0.9% forecast, 6.1% previous
•14:00 US Pending Home Sales Index : 76.5 previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 98B forecast, 120 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro weakened on Thursday as U.S. dollar strengthened after a court blocked President Donald Trump from imposing his import tariffs on other countries, providing some relief for the currency that has struggled this year due to trade uncertainty. The Court of International Trade ruled that Trump overstepped his authority by imposing across-the-board duties on imports from nations that sell more to the United States than they buy. U.S. assets including the dollar, equities and longer-dated Treasury bonds have witnessed sharp declines in recent months as investors reassessed historic assumptions around the strength and outperformance of U.S. markets as Trump's erratic trade and tax policies sap confidence and spur inflation. The euro slipped 0.4% to $1.12445. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1386(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1421(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1187(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1117(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound initially dipped but recovered some ground as investors spotlight shifted to key U.S data later in the day. Markets are watching the U.S. economic calendar, which includes weekly jobless claims data. First-time unemployment filings are expected to edge up to 230,000, slightly higher than last week's 227,000.Markets also await U.S. GDP data due later in the day, along with core U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures figures on Friday, for further cues on the Fed's policy path. The pound has gained almost 8% against the dollar in 2025 and is on track for its fourth consecutive monthly rise, as investors react to uncertain U.S. trade policy.It has also been boosted by strong data, including retail sales last week as well as the announcement of a UK-U.S. trade deal earlier this month. At GMT 11:55, the pair was trading down 0.04 percent at 1.3463.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3558(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3617(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3400(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3317(April 30th low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Thursday as the U.S. dollar strengthened after a federal court blocked President Donald Trump’s broad import tariffs from taking effect. The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Trump had overstepped his authority by imposing tariffs on countries with trade surpluses against the United States. The ruling boosted investor appetite for risk assets, including equities and the U.S. dollar, which had been under pressure since early April. Meanwhile, domestic data weighed on sentiment, with Australian business investment unexpectedly declining in Q1 as a drop in equipment spending dragged on growth and dimmed hopes for an economic recovery. At GMT 12:10, the Australian dollar was down 0.10% to 0.6415 against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6498(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6515(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6414(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6375(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar gained further ground against the Japanese yen on Thursday after dollar after a U.S. federal court blocked most of President Donald Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" from taking effect. A U.S. trade court ruled that the Constitution grants Congress exclusive authority to regulate commerce with foreign nationsan authority that cannot be overridden by the president’s emergency powers, even when invoked to protect the U.S. economy. The court’s decision effectively limits the scope of executive action in imposing broad trade measures without legislative approval. In response, the Trump administration has filed an appeal, challenging both the ruling and the court's interpretation of presidential authority under trade law. The dollar gained 0.7% on the Japanese yen to 145.86 yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.06 (50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.76(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 143.00(Psychological level)
Equities Recap
European stocks rose on Thursday after a U.S. federal court blocked President Donald Trump's so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs from going into effect .
At GMT (12:10) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.09 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.05 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.55 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices bounced back on Thursday as dip-buying emerged after the metal hit a more than one-week low earlier in the session.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $3,296.63 an ounce, as of 1114 GMT, after hitting its lowest since May 20.U.S. gold futures were steady at $3,294.60.
Oil prices climbed on Thursday after a U.S. court blocked most of President Donald Trump's tariffs. Meanwhile, markets kept a close watch on potential new U.S. sanctions targeting Russian crude exports and the upcoming OPEC+ decision on whether to raise output in July.
Brent crude futures were up 19 cents, or 0.3%, to $65.09 a barrel at 1215 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 24 cents, or 0.4%, to $62.08 a barrel.