Posted at 27 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss Trade Balance (Apr) 6.358B, 5.550B forecast, 6.290B previous
•GfK German Consumer Climate (Jun) -19.9,-19.9 forecast, -20.8 previous
•French CPI (MoM) (May) -0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.6% previous
•French CPI (YoY) (May) 0.7%, 0.9% forecast, 0.8% previous
•French HICP (MoM) (May) -0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.7% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (May) 0.6% , 0.9% forecast, 0.9% previous
•EU Business and Consumer Survey (May) 94.8, 94.0 forecast, 93.8 previous
•EU Business Climate (May) -0.55, -0.66 previous
•EU Consumer Confidence (May) -15.2,-15.2 forecast, -16.7 previous
•EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (May) 23.6 ,29.4 previous
•EU Selling Price Expectations (May) 7.9,10.6 previous
•EU Services Sentiment (May) 1.5,0.9 forecast, 1.6 previous
•EU Industrial Sentiment (May) -10.3, -11.0 forecast, -11.0 previous
• US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr): - 0.2%,0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
• US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Apr): -6.3%,-7.6% forecast, 9.2% previous
• US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Apr): -7.5%, 10.5% previous
• US Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Apr): -1.3% , 0.1% previous
• Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Apr): -0.9%,0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:00 US House Price Index (YoY) (Mar): 3.9% previous
•13:00 US House Price Index (MoM) (Mar): 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•13:00 US House Price Index (Mar): 437.3 previous
•13:00 S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) (Mar): 0.4% previous
•13:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) (Mar): 0.7% actual
•13:00 US S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) (Mar): 4.5% actual, 4.5% previous
•14:00 US CB Consumer Confidence (May): 87.1 forecast, 86.0 previous
•14:30 US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (May): -35.8 previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction: 4.285% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction: 4.140% previous
•15:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2): 2.4% forecast,, 2.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Tuesday as markets awaited progress in U.S.-EU trade talks. President Trump delayed a planned 50% tariff on EU imports, setting a new deadline of July 9 to allow negotiations to continue. Meanwhile, investor focus has shifted to the U.S. Senate’s upcoming debate on Trump's tax-cut bill, which is projected to significantly increase the national debt. Market sensitivity has grown since Moody’s downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating on May 16. The House recently passed a version of the tax bill that could add $3.8 trillion to the current $36.2 trillion federal debt over the next decade, according to the CBO. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1447(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1574(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1325(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1207(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged lower on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar regained strength, supported by improved risk sentiment following President Donald Trump's decision to delay higher tariffs on the European Union. The move eased immediate trade tensions and bolstered dollar demand. Meanwhile, expectations for a Bank of England rate cut at its June meeting have faded after last week's stronger-than-expected inflation data. Market pricing now shows a 93.6% probability that the BoE will hold rates steady. This follows the central bank's recent 25 basis point cut on May 8, which brought the Bank Rate down to 4.25%.UK economic data has also outperformed forecasts, reinforcing the BoE’s cautious stance. Retail sales data released last Friday showed a sharp rebound in April, further highlighting the economy's resilience despite ongoing inflationary pressures. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3598(Daily hiigh), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3658(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3473(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3326(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped from a six-month high on Tuesday as investors turned their focus to upcoming high-impact economic data and recent trade developments. Markets remained centered on U.S. fiscal issues and shifting tariff policies under the Trump administration. Australian inflation data for April is due Wednesday, with analysts expecting a slight slowdown to 2.3% from 2.4% in March. Attention this week will also be on Friday’s U.S. core PCE price index for indications on U.S. interest rate prospects. A July rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia is now priced in at 67%, with a total easing of 80 basis points expected by early next year. At GMT 12:21, the Australia dollar was down 0.62 % to 0.6445 against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6505(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6540(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6443(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6412(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, as the yen came under pressure following a sharp decline in Japan’s long-dated government bond yields. The move came after a media report showed that Japan’s Ministry of Finance may reduce issuance of super-long bonds, following a surge in their yields in recent weeks.Investor sentiment was also supported by U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to delay a planned hike in tariffs on European Union imports, easing immediate trade concerns and boosting demand for risk-sensitive assets. Meanwhile, Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said the government is closely monitoring the debt market, while Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank remains alert to rising inflationary pressures signaling the possibility of further rate hikes. Globally, bond yields especially at the long end—have risen sharply amid growing worries about worsening fiscal deficits in major economies, particularly in the U.S. and Japan, adding another layer of uncertainty to the market backdrop.Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.13 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.30(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 140.71(Lower BB)
Equities Recap
European equity indices rose on Tuesday, driven by growing optimism that a potentially costly trade conflict between the U.S. and the European Union may be avoided.
At GMT (12:30) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.63 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.69 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.02 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday, as fading trade war concerns balanced expectations that OPEC+ may agree to raise output at its upcoming meeting later this week.
Brent crude futures were down 28 cents, or 0.4%, at $64.46 a barrel by 1154 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 33 cents, or 0.5%, to $61.20 a barrel.
Gold prices fell over 1% on Tuesday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and reduced safe-haven demand after President Trump's softer trade stance toward the European Union eased market tensions.
Spot gold was down 1.6% at $3,289.93 an ounce as of 1155 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 2.3% to $3,287.80.