Posted at 21 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) 3.8%, 3.6%forecast, 3.4% previous
•UK Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) 1.4% , 1.2% forecast, 0.5% previous
•UK Core RPI (MoM) (Apr) 1.8%, 0.3% previous
•UK Core RPI (YoY) (Apr) 4.2% ,2.8% previous
•UK CPI (MoM) (Apr) 1.2%, 1.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•UK CPI (YoY) (Apr) 3.5%, 3.3% forecast, 2.6% previous
•UK CPI, n.s.a (Apr) 138.20, 136.50 previous
•UK RPI (MoM) (Apr) 1.7%, 1.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
•UK RPI (YoY) (Apr) 4.5%,4.2% forecast, 3.2% previous
• Swiss M3 Money Supply (Apr) 1,176.8B, 1,170.6B previous
•Greek Current Account (YoY) (Mar) -2.998B, -2.490B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Apr) 0.1%forecast,0.0% previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -0.900M forecast, 3.454M previous
•14:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) 0.330M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Imports 0.422M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -1.069M previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production -0.069M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -1.200M forecast, -3.155M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Production -0.327M previous
•14:30 US Heating Oil Stockpiles 0.292M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Inventories -1.760M forecast,-1.022M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•16:00 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
•16:00 ECB's Lane Speaks
•16:15 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Wednesday as investors fretted about the fiscal outlook of major developed economies and the lack of progress on trade deals. Investor sentiment has been fragile since Moody's last week downgraded U.S. credit rating, stoking worries about the country's $36 trillion debt pile, with U.S. President Donald Trump pushing for tax cuts that could worsen the debt load by $3 trillion to $5 trillion.There are also concerns about a lack of progress on U.S. trade talks with foes and allies pressing Washington to ease or eliminate its tariffs. Markets were also monitoring the Group of Seven finance minister meetings currently underway in Canada for any hints that a weaker dollar could help advance trade negotiations. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1370(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1462(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1187(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1103(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound gave up early gains on Wednesday after UK inflation data came in hotter than expected, dimming hopes for near-term rate cuts by the Bank of England. Consumer price inflation jumped to 3.5% in April from 2.6% in March, the highest level since January 2024 and the steepest month-on-month rise since 2022, when inflation was soaring above 10%, according to the Office for National Statistics. The data raises concerns about the UK's economic outlook despite strong growth earlier in 2025, momentum is expected to slow in the second half of the year. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves expressed disappointment over the inflation reading, which further dampened investor expectations of a BoE rate cut in the coming months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3469(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3512(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3340(May 20th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3265(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Wednesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar as investor concerns grew over the U.S. economic and fiscal outlook. President Trump urged Republican lawmakers to support a bill aimed at extending his 2017 tax cuts, but resistance from a few holdouts cast doubt on its passage. The proposal has sparked fears of an accelerated rise in the U.S. budget deficit, especially after Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating highlighted rising debt concerns.On Tuesday, the Aussie had come under pressure after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points, in line with expectations. The RBA cited weakening growth prospects and easing inflation pressures. Policymakers indicated that inflation risks have moderated, and projections now show headline inflation stabilizing near the midpoint of the RBA’s 2–3% target range, reducing the urgency for further tightening. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6491(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6513(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6385(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6319(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar extended fall against the yen on Wednesday as investors sought safe-haven assets amid heightened U.S. fiscal uncertainty.Sentiment remains fragile after Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, with concerns mounting that President Trump's tax plan could add $3–5 trillion to the already $36 trillion national debt.Adding to the unease, U.S. trade talks remain stalled, as both allies and adversaries press Washington to ease tariffs.Meanwhile, data showed Japan's exports rose for a seventh consecutive month in April, but shipments to the U.S. declined, underlining the potential impact of U.S. trade policies on Japan's recovery.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.61 (Daily high)an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.47(61.8%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.63(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.81(38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
European stocks pulled back from two-month highs on Wednesday, weighed down by losses in JD Sports and Julius Baer, as investors remained cautious amid ongoing U.S. trade negotiations and Congressional debate over the tax bill.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.05 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.14 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.60 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed to their highest level in over a week on Wednesday, buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar and renewed safe-haven demand.
Spot gold was up 0.8% at $3,314.48 an ounce, as of 1022 GMT. U.S. gold futures climbed 1% to $3,317.20.
Oil prices jumped over 1% on Wednesday following reports that Israel may be preparing to launch strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Brent futures rose 79 cents, or 1.2%, to $66.17 a barrel by 1018 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 82 cents, or 1.3%, to $62.85.