Posted at 20 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German PPI (MoM) (Apr) -0.6%, -0.3% forecast,-0.7% previous
• German PPI (YoY) (Apr) -0.9%, -0.6% forecast, -0.2% previous
• EU Current Account (Mar) 50.9B, 35.9B forecast, 34.3B previous
• EU Current Account n.s.a. (Mar) 60.1B, 33.1B previous
• Belgium Consumer Confidence (May) -7, -14 previous
• EU Construction Output (MoM) (Mar) 0.10%,-1.16% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Common CPI (YoY) (Apr) 2.3% forecast, 2.3% previous
•12:30 Canada Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.2%, 0.1% previous
•12:30 Canada Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) 2.2% previous
•12:30 Canada CPI (YoY) (Apr) 1.6% forecast, 2.3% previous
•12:30 Canada CPI (MoM) (Apr) -0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•12:30 Canada Median CPI (YoY) (Apr) 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous
•12:30 Canada Trimmed CPI (YoY) (Apr) 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous
•12:30 US Redbook (YoY) 5.8% previous
•14:00 EU Consumer Confidence (May) -16.0 forecast, -16.7 previous
•15:00 New Zealand GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 4.6% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:00 US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
•13:00 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
•13:30 US Fed Collins Speaks
•21:00 US FOMC Member Kugler Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped on Tuesday as investors remained cautious ahead of potential updates to U.S. tariff policy, which has heightened fears about the global economic outlook. Earlier in the year, aggressive tariff actions from the Trump administration led investors to reduce their exposure to U.S. assets after a long stretch of outperformance. While the dollar saw some stabilization in recent sessions on optimism surrounding a temporary truce in the U.S.-China trade conflict, it came under renewed pressure following Moody’s decision to downgrade the U.S. sovereign credit rating by one notch. The downgrade cited growing concerns over the nation's ballooning $36.2 trillion debt. Adding to the uncertainty, former President Trump is expected to participate in the congressional debate on his proposed tax bill, which could further strain the fiscal outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1370(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1462(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1187(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1103(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher on Tuesday as investors reacted to the landmark trade agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union. Sentiment was also influenced by comments from Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill, who cautioned that recent interest rate cuts may have been too rapid given persistent wage-driven inflation pressures. Pill, who voted to hold rates steady this month, emphasized that the move was likely “a skip, not a halt” in the broader tightening cycle.The Bank of England lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% on May 8, and markets are pricing in another similar cut at the June policy meeting. Following stronger-than-expected GDP figures last week, traders now await UK consumer inflation data due on Wednesday for further direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3405(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3449(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3217(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3164(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its main cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, in line with market expectations. The rate is now at a two-year low, as the central bank cited a weakening global outlook and moderating domestic inflation.Following a two-day policy meeting, the RBA noted that inflation pressures have eased, while international developments particularly ongoing global trade tensions pose downside risks to Australia's economy. The central bank also projected that inflation would continue to decline and unemployment could rise, even with moetary easing largely aligned with market forecasts. Despite the cut, the RBA signaled a cautious stance on further rate reductions. At GMT 05:00, the Australia dollar was down 0.86% to 0.6401 against the US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6491(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6513(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6385(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6319(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped to hit two week low against the yen on Tuesday as traders focused on the U.S. economy and considered news that upcoming U.S.-Japan talks could include discussions on foreign exchange and avoiding volatility. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday he expects any bilateral meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on exchange rates to be based on their shared view that excessive currency volatility was undesirable. Kato and Bessent are expected to hold a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of a G7 finance leaders' gathering to be held this week in Canada.As Tokyo and Washington proceed with separate bilateral talks on tariffs, the thorny currency rate topic has been set aside for the two finance chiefs to discuss.Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.63 (Daily high)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.48(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.22(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.42(May 7th low)
Equities Recap
European stocks inched higher on Tuesday, led by gains in utilities and telecom sectors, as investors awaited developments on U.S. tariff policy amid growing concerns over the global economic outlook.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.67 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.67 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.62percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, supported by a softer dollar, as investors kept a cautious eye on Russia-Ukraine peace talks and potential shifts in U.S. tariff policy.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $3,236.94 an ounce as of 1102 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.2% to $3,239.40.
Oil prices held steady on Tuesday amid uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations and Russia-Ukraine peace talks, while fresh government data pointed to a cautious economic outlook for top crude importer China.
Brent futures for July slipped 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $64.75 a barrel by 0947 GMT.