Posted at 19 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• China House Prices (YoY) (Apr) -4.0%, -4.5% previous
• China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Apr) 4.0%,4.4%,4.2% previous
• China Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr) 6.1%,5.7%forecast,7.7% previous
• China Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Apr) 6.4%,6.5% previous
• China Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) 5.1%, 6.0% forecast,5.9% previous
• China Chinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (Apr) 3.73%,3.61% previous
• China Chinese Unemployment Rate (Apr) 5.1%, 5.2% forecast, 5.2% previous
Looking Ahead economic Data(GMT)
•09:00 EU Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) 1.0% forecast, 1.0% previous
•09:00 EU Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) 2.7% forecast, 2.4% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Apr) 2.2% forecast, 2.2% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous
•09:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Apr) 0.6% previous
•09:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Apr) 2.1% previous
•09:00 EU CPI, n.s.a (Apr) 128.76 forecast, 128.04 previous
•09:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Apr) 2.7% forecast,2.5% previous
•09:00 EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Apr) 0.9% forecast, 0.8% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Monday as euro was aided by a surprise victory for the centrist candidate in Romania's presidential election over a far right anti-EU opponent. Romania's centrist Bucharest mayor, Nicusor Dan, won the country's presidential election on Sunday in a shock upset over a hard-right, nationalist rival who had pledged to put Romania on a path inspired by U.S. President Donald Trump's politics. Official results from nearly all voting stations showed Dan garnering about 54% of ballots cast by voters in the EU and NATO member country of about 19 million people, while Trump supporter George Simion was at 46%. Meanwhile, in a weekend interview, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the dollar’s recent decline reflects a loss of confidence in U.S. policies, which could support the euro. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1330(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1462(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1151(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1060(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened on Monday as the U.S. dollar weakened following the surprise downgrade of the U.S. government’s credit rating.On Friday, the ratings agency downgraded the United States’ sovereign credit rating by one notch, becoming the last major agency to do so. The decision was driven by concerns over the country’s escalating $36 trillion debt. This downgrade comes amid Republican efforts in both the House and Senate to pass a comprehensive package of tax cuts, spending increases, and safety-net reductions that could significantly increase the national debt. Uncertainty around the final form of the so-called "Big Beautiful Bill" has left investors uneasy, despite growing optimism on trade. The bill failed to clear a critical legislative hurdle on Friday, even as President Donald Trump called for unity in support of the proposal. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3405(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3449(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3217(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3164(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar steadied on Monday as investors awaited Tuesday's Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy decision. The Reserve Bank of Australia will cut its key rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday and twice more this year as core inflation remains within its target range while trade tensions fuel growth concerns.After it held borrowing costs steady in April there has been a shift in expectations regarding the RBA, from three 25 basis-point cuts before last month's meeting to four this year amid global trade uncertainties and core inflation cooling to 2.9% in the March quarter.Markets have priced in a certainty of a quarter-point cut to the RBA's 4.10% cash rate on Tuesday, as slowing inflation allows policymakers to respond to rising global risks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6456(May 15th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6496(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6377(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6342(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar slipped to hit one week low against the yen on Monday as markets digested a surprise downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating.Moody's cut the United States' top sovereign credit rating by one notch on Friday, the last of the major ratings agencies to downgrade the country, citing concerns about its growing $36 trillion debt pile.The news saw the dollar turn lower against its major rivals following four straight winning weeks when it was boosted by rising optimism for U.S. trade deals and then a thaw in relations with China that eased fears of a global recession. The greenback slipped as much as 0.6% to 144.80 yen for the first time since May 9 on Monday .Immediate resistance can be seen at 146.36 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.56(23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.56(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.88(61.8%fib)
Equities Recap
Asian shares fell on Monday as mixed Chinese data signaled economic struggles, with U.S. tariffs impacting exports and the White House maintaining trade pressure.
China A 50 was down 0.42% , South Korea's KOSPI was down 0.89%,Hang Seng was down by 0.05%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Monday as a weaker dollar and renewed trade tensions after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed President Trump’s tariff threats boosted safe-haven demand.
Spot gold was up 0.8% at $3,228.47 an ounce, as of 0632 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 1.4% to $3,232.10.
Oil prices fell on Monday, pressured by Moody’s downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit and weaker-than-expected Chinese industrial output and retail sales data.
Front-month Brent crude futures edged down 51 cents, or 0.8%, to $64.90 a barrel by 0630 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 45 cents, or 0.7%, to $62.04 a barrel. The front-month June WTI contract expires on Tuesday and the more-active July contract fell 48 cents, or 0.8%, to $61.49 a barrel.