Posted at 15 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia MI Inflation Expectations 4.1%, 4.2% previous
• Australia Employment Change (Apr) 89.0K, 20.9Kforecast,36.4K previous
• Australia Full Employment Change (Apr) 59.5K, 12.2K previous
• Australia Participation Rate (Apr) 67.1%, 66.8% forecast,66.8% previous
• Australia Reserve Assets Total (Apr) 103.8B, 104.5B previous
• Australia Unemployment Rate (Apr) 4.1%,4.1% forecast,4.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•06:30 U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Mar): 1.2% forecast, 1.6% previous
•06:30 U.K Construction Output (MoM) (Mar): 0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•06:30 U.K GDP (QoQ) (Q1): 0.6% forecast, 0.1% previous
•06:30 U.K GDP (YoY) (Q1): 1.2% forecast, 1.5% previous
•06:30 U.K GDP (MoM) (Mar): 0.0% forecast, 0.5% previous
•06:30 U.K GDP (YoY) (Mar): 1.0% forecast, 1.4% previous
•06:30 U.K Index of Services (MoM) (Mar): 0.7% forecast, 0.6% previous
•06:30 U.K Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar): -0.6% forecast, 1.5% previous
•06:30 U.K Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar): -0.9% forecast, 0.1% previous
•06:30 U.K Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Mar): -0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
•06:30 U.K Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar): -0.8% forecast, 2.2% previous
•06:30 U.K Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Mar): 0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous
•06:30 U.K Trade Balance (Mar): -19.10B forecast, -20.81B previous
•06:30 German WPI (YoY) (Apr): 1.3% previous
•06:30 German WPI (MoM) (Apr): 0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
•06:45 French CPI NSA (MoM) (Apr): 0.50% previous
•06:45 French CPI NSA (YoY) (Apr): 0.80% previous
•06:45 French CPI (MoM) (Apr): 0.5% forecast, 0.2% previous
•06:45 French CPI (YoY) (Apr): 0.8% forecast, 0.8% previous
•06:45 French HICP (MoM) (Apr): 0.6% forecast, 0.2% previous
•06:45 French HICP (YoY) (Apr): 0.8% forecast, 0.9% previous
•09:00 EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q1): 0.8% forecast, 0.7% previous
•09:00 EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1): 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•09:00 EU Employment Overall (Q1): 169,435.3K previous
•09:00 EU GDP (QoQ) (Q1): 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous
•09:00 EU GDP (YoY) (Q1): 1.2% forecast, 1.2% previous
•09:00 EU Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar): 2.5% forecast, 1.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 07:50 ECB's Elderson Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Thursday as the U.S. dollar dipped ahead of a key U.S. data, which is expected to provide cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. The spotlight is now on the U.S. producer price index (PPI) data, due at 1230 GMT, following the softer-than-expected consumer data.Fed policymakers are leaving interest rates where they are while they try to assess how U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and trade negotiations will affect prices and the economy. So far, the hard data is giving them little to go on. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also set to deliver a speech later in the day.Markets are expecting 50 basis points of Fed interest rate cuts this year, starting from October instead of July, as previously anticipated. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1263(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1392(May 6th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1065(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1000(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened on Thursday as traders positioned themselves ahead of a key UK GDP release. The UK’s Office for National Statistics releases GDP, industrial output, and trade data, with the economy expected to show no growth in March following a 0.5% expansion in February. The figures offer key insight into the country's economic momentum heading into Q2.Meanwhile, Bank of England interest rate-setter Catherine Mann on Wednesday said she voted to keep rates on hold last week after advocating a significant 50-basis point cut in February citing Britain’s labor market resilience as the key reason for her decision. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.335(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3414(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3174(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3015(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Thursday after stronger-than-expected jobs data bolstered expectations for a more hawkish stance from the RBA. Employment surged by 89,000 in April, far above the 20,000 forecast and the revised 36,400 gain in March, marking the biggest monthly increase in over a year. While the data eases the need for additional stimulus, markets still expect a rate cut next week as cooling inflation gives policymakers room to respond to global economic risks. The RBA held rates at 4.1% in April but signaled the May meeting as an opportunity to reassess monetary policy.At GMT 05:29, the Australia dollar was up 0.01% to 0.6433 against the US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6491(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6513(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6385(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6319(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased against the yen on Thursday as dollar dipped as initial investor relief over the U.S.-China tariff truce gave way to caution amid ongoing uncertainty about the details of various trade deals. Investor focus on Thursday will be on retail sales data, as markets seek further clarity on potential trade deals following easing tensions between the U.S. and China.On Monday, the two countries announced a 90-day pause on most tariffs imposed since early April, sparking a brief relief rally. The agreement in Geneva exceeded market expectations, with the United States and China sharply dropping extra retaliatory tariffs imposed on each other. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.55 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.48(My 12th high) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.95(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.53(61.8%fib)
Equities Recap
Asian stocks dipped on Thursday for the first time in five sessions, as momentum from Wall Street’s rally driven by US-China trade optimism began to fade.
China A 50 was down 021% , South Korea's KOSPI was down 0.64 %,Hang Seng was down by 0.74%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell to a more than one-month low on Thursday, pressured by easing U.S.-China trade tensions and caution ahead of key U.S. economic data that could offer clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Spot gold fell 0.8% to $3,153.09 an ounce, as of 0303 GMT, after hitting its lowest level since April 10, earlier in the session.
Oil prices fell over $1 on Thursday amid optimism about a potential U.S.-Iran nuclear deal, coupled with worries over oversupply following a surprise rise in U.S. crude oil inventories last week.
Brent crude futures fell $1.49, or 2.3%, to $64.60 a barrel by 0405 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slid $1.46, or 2.3%, to $61.69.