Posted at 14 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• German CPI (YoY) (Apr) 2.1%,2.1% forecast,2.2% previous
• German CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.4%,0.4% forecast,0.3% previous
• German HICP (MoM) (Apr) 0.5%,0.5% forecast,0.4% previous
• German HICP (YoY) (Apr) 2.2%,2.2% forecast,2.3% previous
• UK 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction 4.638% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) (Mar) -0.7% forecast,2.9% previous
• 12:30 New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (Mar) 125.4K previous
• 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -2.000M forecast, -2.032M previous
• 14:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) -0.007M previous
• 14:30 US Crude Oil Imports 0.673M previous
• 14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories-0.740M previous
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• 14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production 0.041M previous
• 14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks 0.100M forecast, -1.107M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:30 Fed Governor Jefferson Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Wednesday as dollar extended losses from the day before as benign U.S. inflation data kept Federal Reserve rate cuts on the table. Data on Tuesday showing softer-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation also provided some relief to investors worried about the inflationary impact of U.S. tariff policies, which had severely undercut expectations of near term Fed rate cuts.Though traders expect inflation to pick up as tariffs lift import costs, the uncertainty over the outlook remains as Washington moves ahead to strike deals with its trading partners. The Fed has warned of rising economic uncertainty, signalling it is prepared to wait to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs before moving to cut interest rates again. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1263(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1392(May 6th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1065(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1000(Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar dipped following a softer than-expected rise in U.S. consumer inflation for April. U.S. data on Tuesday showed the consumer price index increased by 0.2% last month, below expectations of economists for a 0.3% gain.The UK is set to release its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Thursday, covering both the month of March and the first quarter (Q1) of 2025.The figures will provide a comprehensive snapshot of the country’s economic performance, highlighting key trends in consumer spending, business investment, industrial output, and trade . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3338(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3460(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3174(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3015(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar steadied on Wednesday as higher commodities prices and softer dollar supported Australian dollar.The U.S. dollar has weakened following the release of April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed inflation rising at a slower pace than anticipated. Commodity prices rose, with iron ore hitting a two-week high and copper reaching its highest level in six weeks. This surge was primarily driven by a temporary easing of trade tensions between the United States and China, coupled with a weakening U.S. dollar. At GMT 12:22, the Australia dollar was up 0.01% to 0.6468 against the US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6491(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6513(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6385(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6319(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar fell sharply against the yen on Wednesday as dollar dipped as cooler-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation data bolstering the case for Federal Reserve easing. U.S. consumer prices rose modestly in April, with cheaper food offsetting higher rents, marking the slowest annual inflation in four years. However, the inflation outlook remains uncertain amid tariff concerns.U.S. consumer price index increased 0.2% last month, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Tuesday. Economists polled had forecast the CPI would rise 0.3%.The data showed cooling price pressures before Trump’s tariff moves and reinforced expectations that the Fed will likely hold off on rate cuts until late summer. At GMT 12:20, the US dollar was down 0.83% to 146.26 against the yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.55 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.56(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 145.00(Psychological level
Equities Recap
European stocks dipped on Wednesday as investors paused after a strong rally driven by easing global trade tensions. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar extended losses amid softer inflation data, keeping hopes alive for Fed rate cuts.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.04 percent, Germany's Dax was 0.12 by 1.18 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.29 percent.
Oil prices slipped on Wednesday as markets anticipated a rise in U.S. crude inventories, while OPEC cut its supply growth forecast for non-OPEC+ producers.
Brent crude futures fell 75 cents, or around 1.1%, to $65.88 a barrel by 1206 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 75 cents, or 1.2%, to $62.92.
Gold prices declined on Wednesday as easing U.S.-China trade tensions reduced global recession fears, increasing risk appetite and dampening demand for the safe-haven metal.
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $3,231.08 an ounce, as of 1144 GMT. Prices scaled a record high of $3,500.05 last month amid elevated trade war fears.