Posted at 13 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Mar) 5.6% 5.7% forecast, 5.9% previous
• UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Mar) 5.5% ,5.2% forecast, 5.7% previous
• UK Claimant Count Change (Apr) 5.2K,22.3K forecast, -16.9K previous
• UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Mar) 112K,120K forecast, 206K previous
• UK Unemployment Rate (Mar) 4.5%,4.5% forecast, 4.4% previous
• German ZEW Current Conditions (May) -82.0, -77.0 forecast, -81.2 previous
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment (May) 25.2, 10.7 forecast, -14.0 previous
• EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (May) 11.6,-3.5 forecast, -18.5 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) 2.8% forecast, 2.8% previous
•12:30 US Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.3% forecast,0.1% previous
•12:30 US Core CPI Index (Apr) 325.66 previous
•12:30 US CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.3% forecast,-0.1% previous
•12:30 US CPI (YoY) (Apr) 2.4% forecast,2.4% previous
•12:30 US CPI Index, n.s.a. (Apr) 320.86 forecast, 319.80 previous
•12:30 US CPI Index, s.a (Apr) 319.62 previous
•12:30 US CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Apr) 0.22% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:00 German Buba Balz Speaks
•15:00 BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
•15:00 BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Tuesday after data showed German investor sentiment rebounded more than expected in May. German investor morale rose more than expected in May, recovering from its sharp decline the previous month, the ZEW economic research institute said on Tuesday.The economic sentiment index rose to 25.2 points from -14.0 points in April. Analysts polled had pointed to a reading of 11.9. The rebound compensates for some of the losses in April, when German investor morale posted its strongest decline since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 due to uncertainty unleashed by U.S. tariffs. The euro was last trading up 0.24% at $1.1113. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1237(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1392(May 6th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1038(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0850 (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened on Tuesday as the dollar eased slightly as initial optimism over the U.S.-China trade truce faded. On Monday, the U.S. and China announced tariff cut for the next three months, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports falling from 145% to 30%, and Chinese duties on U.S. imports dropping from 125% to 10%.On the data front, Britain's job market slowed again last month, with data reflecting the effects of a tax hike on employers and Donald Trump's trade tariffs.Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, rose by 5.6% from January to March compared to the same period last year, marking the slowest increase since the three months ending in November, according to the Office for National Statistics. At GMT 12:10, the pound was down 0.30% to 1.3215 against the greenback .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3382(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3455(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3177(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3018(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rose on Tuesday as optimism over easing U.S.-China trade tensions boosted demand for risk-sensitive Australian dollar. Washington and Beijing agreed on Monday to cut tariffs for 90 days, triggering a global market rally. The improved outlook led traders to scale back expectations of sharp rate cuts, with Australia’s year-end rate now seen at 3.25%, up from 2.85% two weeks ago. On the data front, Australian business activity remained soft in April amid weaker profits and cautious investment, while consumer sentiment showed a partial rebound in May. At GMT 12:10, the Australian dollar was up 0.59% to 0.6410 against the US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6437(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6495(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6361(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6322(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased against the yen on Tuesday as dollar lost steam as initial optimism over the U.S.-China trade truce faded.Worries over U.S. growth and stalled trade negotiations have unsettled markets since President Trump introduced sweeping tariffs in early April.Investor focus now shifts to the details of the agreement and what follows after the 90-day truce. Traders now await the U.S. Consumer Price Index report for fresh signals on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory.The market is expecting a 55-basis-point rate cut this year by the Fed, starting September. The greenback dipped 0.40% to 147.85 yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.55 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.43(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.43(50%fib)
Equities Recap
European stocks climbed on Tuesday, boosted by gains in Bayer and clean energy shares, maintaining market momentum following the U.S.-China trade truce announcement.
At GMT (12:10) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 00.4 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.10 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.09 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Tuesday as the dollar edged lower as the U.S.-China trade truce faded, while investors awaited U.S. inflation data due later in the day.
Spot gold was up 0.6% at $3,255.09 an ounce, as of 1144 GMT, after dropping more than 2% in the previous session. U.S. gold futures were up 0.9% at $3,258.40.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday, though gains were limited by rising supply and uncertainty over whether the U.S.-China trade truce will result in a lasting agreement.
Brent crude futures gained 50 cents, or about 0.8%, to $65.46 a barrel by 1054 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 53 cents, or about 0.9%, at $62.49.