Posted at 13 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment (May) 2.2%, -6.0% previous
• Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Mar) -8.8%,-8.8% forecast, -0.3% previous
• Australia NAB Business Confidence (Apr) -1, -2 previous
• Australia NAB Business Survey (Apr) 2, 4 previous
• Australia Private House Approvals (Mar) -4.5%, -4.5% forecast, 1.0% previous
• UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Mar) 5.6% 5.7% forecast, 5.9% previous
• UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Mar) 5.5%, 5.2% forecast, 5.7% previous
• UK Claimant Count Change (Apr) 5.2K,22.3K forecast, -16.9K previous
• UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Mar) 112K,120K forecast, 206K previous
• UK Unemployment Rate (Mar) 4.5%,4.5% forecast, 4.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 09:00 German ZEW Current Conditions (May) -77.0 forecast, -81.2 previous
• 09:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (May) 10.7 forecast, -14.0 previous
•09:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (May) -3.5 forecast, -18.5 previous
•09:10 EU Italian 3-Year BTP Auction 2.44% previous
•09:10 EU Italian 7-Year BTP Auction 3.30% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Tuesday as a temporary pause in the U.S.-China trade war eased global recession fears, bringing relief to investors. Following two days of talks in Geneva, the U.S. and China agreed to reduce tariffs for the next three months .U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods will drop from 145% to 30%, while China will cut duties on U.S. imports from 125% to 10%. The move comes after both countries imposed tit-for-tat tariffs last month, igniting a trade war. Investors are now watching for further developments in the U.S.-China talks, as well as upcoming economic data, to gauge whether this relief rally has staying power. The euro was last trading up 0.24% at $1.1113. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1237(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1392(May 6th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1038(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0850 (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound retreated slightly on Tuesday as fresh data pointed to further signs of a slowdown in the UK labor market, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England may hold off on further interest rate hikes.Official figures showed a decline in employment and a cooling in wage growth, with average weekly earnings excluding bonuses rising by 5.6% in the first three months of 2025 compared to a year earlier , the slowest pace since the three months to November 2024.The softer labor data suggested easing inflationary pressures, prompting investors to reassess the outlook for monetary policy.A poll of economists had pointed to regular wage growth of 5.7%. At GMT 12:40, the pound was down 0.90% to 1.3185 against the greenback .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3382(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3455(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3177(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3018(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar rose on Tuesday as optimism over easing U.S.-China trade tensions boosted demand for risk-sensitive Australian dollar. Washington and Beijing agreed on Monday to cut tariffs for 90 days, triggering a global market rally. The improved outlook led traders to scale back expectations of sharp rate cuts, with Australia’s year-end rate now seen at 3.25%, up from 2.85% two weeks ago. On the data front, Australian business activity remained soft in April amid weaker profits and cautious investment, while consumer sentiment showed a partial rebound in May. At GMT 05:00, the Australian dollar was up 0.64% to 0.6414 against the US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6437(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6495(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6361(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6322(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar eased against the yen on Tuesday as renewed concerns over President Trump's trade policies and their global impact weighed on risk sentiment. Markets have been unsettled since sweeping U.S. tariffs were announced in early April, prompting investors to shift into safe havens like the yen, Swiss franc, and gold. Despite recent signs of easing in U.S.-China trade tensions, lingering uncertainty has led traders to scale back Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Markets are now pricing in 56 basis points of cuts this year, down from over 100 basis points at the peak of tariff concerns in mid-April. The greenback dipped 0.40% to 147.85 yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.55 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.43(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.43(50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks firmed on Tuesday as a temporary pause in the U.S.-China trade war eased global recession fears, bringing relief to investors.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 1.54% , South Korea's KOSPI was up 0.04 %,Hang Seng was down by 1.70%.
Commodities Recap
Gold recovered on Tuesday as bargain-hunters stepped in after prices hit a more than one-week low in the previous session.
Spot gold was up 0.6% at $3,254.39 an ounce, as of 0639 GMT. Bullion recorded a 2.7% decline in the previous session.U.S. gold futures were up 1% at $3,258.70.
Oil prices dipped on Tuesday from a two-week high, pressured by concerns over rising supply and skepticism about the longevity of the U.S.-China trade war truce.
Brent crude futures dropped 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $64.85 per barrel by 0510 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $61.87.