Posted at 12 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• German 12-Month Bubill Auction 1.873%,1.864% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 1.901% previous
• 13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.072% previous
•13:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 1.982% previous
• 15:30 US 3-Months Bill Auction 4.220% previous
• 15:30 US 6-Months Bill Auction 4.090% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 14:25 US FOMC Member Kugler Speaks
•15:00 German Buba Vice President Buch Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Monday as the U.S. dollar strengthened following a major breakthrough in trade talks between the United States and China. The two economic superpowers announced a deal to significantly reduce reciprocal tariffs, easing concerns about a prolonged trade war that had rattled global markets.In a notable de-escalation, the U.S. and China agreed to slash tariffs by a combined 115% and implement a 90-day pause on further levies. The announcement came after high-level discussions in Geneva, where U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the agreement, signaling a step toward resolving the trade tensions that have weighed heavily on the global economy. The euro dipped 1.05% to $1.1124. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1237(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1392(May 6th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1038(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0850 (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound dipped on Monday as the dollar strengthened following a U.S.-China truce to temporarily ease tariffs and trade tensions. The U.S. will cut tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145%, while China will lower duties on U.S. goods to 10% from 125%, exceeding investor expectations after weekend talks. The de-escalation, which came as a result of intensive negotiations over the weekend, went beyond what most investors had anticipated. This unexpected move boosted investor confidence and reduced fears of a prolonged trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies. At GMT 12:40, the pound was down 0.90% to 1.3185 against the greenback .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3382(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3455(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3177(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3018(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased on Monday as dollar firmed as the United States and China struck a truce to reduce reciprocal tariffs temporarily, easing fears of carnage from a trade war between the world's two biggest economies. The U.S. will reduce extra tariffs it imposed on Chinese imports in April to 30% from 145% and Chinese duties on U.S. imports will fall to 10% from 125%. The de-escalation surpassed investor expectations and follows negotiations over the weekend. The focus this week will also be on U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures on Tuesday and on April retail sales due on Thursday for indications of how the trade spat has impacted the economy and expectations for further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6462(May 8th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6495(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6379(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6306(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar rose against the yen on Monday as discussions between the United States and China over the weekend helped alleviate concerns of a damaging trade war between the two largest economies. Following talks in Geneva, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced on Sunday that an agreement had been reached with China to reduce the U.S. trade deficit. While specific details remain scarce, a joint statement is expected later on Monday. This week, attention will also be on U.S. economic data, particularly the consumer price index (CPI) figures set to be released on Tuesday. Market participants will be looking for insights on how the ongoing trade dispute has affected the U.S. economy and whether it could influence further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The greenback climbed 0.4% to 148.19 yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.55 (38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.43(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.43(50%fib)
Equities Recap
European shares climbed on Monday after the U.S. and China reached a deal to cut reciprocal tariffs, boosting investor confidence and easing fears of a full-blown trade war.
At GMT (12:30) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.59 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.57 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.39 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold slid 3% to a more than one-week low on Monday after the U.S. and China announced a tariff-cutting deal, strengthening the dollar and reducing demand for the safe-haven metal.
Spot gold was down 3.1% at $3,223.57 an ounce, as of 1203 GMT, its lowest since May 1. U.S. gold futures slipped 3.5% to $3,228.80.
Oil prices surged around 4% on Monday after the U.S. and China agreed to ease some tariffs, fueling optimism over a potential end to the trade war between the world’s top two crude consumers
Brent crude futures climbed $2.43, or 3.8%, to $66.34 a barrel by 1156 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were trading up $2.51, or 4.1%, at $63.53.