Posted at 12 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Japan Adjusted Current Account (Mar) 2.72T, 2.42T forecast,2.91T previous
• Japan Bank Lending (YoY) (Apr) 2.4%,2.8% forecast,2.8% previous
• Japan Current Account n.s.a. (Mar) 3.678T, 3.678T forecast,4.061T previous
• Japan Economy Watchers Current Index (Apr) 42.6, 44.7 forecast,45.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•09:30 German 12-Month Bubill Auction 1.864% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•10:00 Eurogroup Meetings
•12:50 UK BoE MPC Member Mann
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro retreated on Monday, pressured by a rising U.S. dollar amid renewed optimism over U.S.-China trade negotiations. Over the weekend, officials from both countries struck a constructive tone following high-stakes discussions, calming investor nerves about the escalating tariff conflict. U.S. representatives announced a preliminary agreement aimed at narrowing the trade deficit, while China emphasized a key breakthrough had been achieved. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng indicated that a joint communique would be issued from Geneva later in the day. The apparent de-escalation marks a potential turning point in a trade standoff that had rattled markets and stoked fears of a global economic downturn.Meanwhile, traders are also eyeing release of U.S. Consumer Price Index on Tuesday for fresh signals on the Fed's monetary policy trajectory. The euro dipped 1.05% to $1.1124. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1245(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1302 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1119 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0950 (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged lower on Monday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar as signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks lifted global sentiment and eased fears of a potential recession. In Geneva, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the weekend negotiations as showing “substantial progress,” while Chinese officials noted an “important consensus” had been reached. Both parties also agreed to establish a new economic dialogue mechanism. Although a joint statement is expected later Monday, neither side has provided clarity on tariff adjustments. Investors are optimistic that the White House may soon reduce the 145% tariff on Chinese imports, potentially reverting to the initial 60% level suggested by President Donald Trump. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3311(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3391(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3184(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3152 (Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar gained ground on Monday, buoyed by growing optimism surrounding the easing of U.S.-China trade tensions. Over the weekend, U.S.-China trade negotiations concluded with both sides expressing positivity. Washington highlighted an agreement aimed at reducing the U.S. trade deficit, while Beijing emphasized the key consensus reached. Investors are now hopeful that the White House will soon reduce the 145% tariff on Chinese goods, possibly returning it to the 60% level originally proposed by President Donald Trump. As global trade tensions ease, market participants have recalibrated their expectations, reducing forecasts for further domestic interest rate cuts. While the Reserve Bank of Australia is still expected to implement a quarter-point reduction in the current 4.10% rate next week, the likelihood of a more substantial cut has significantly diminished. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6462(May 8th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6495(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6379(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6306(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed against yen on Monday as discussions between the United States and China over the weekend helped alleviate concerns of a damaging trade war between the two largest economies. Following talks in Geneva, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced on Sunday that an agreement had been reached with China to reduce the U.S. trade deficit. While specific details remain scarce, a joint statement is expected later on Monday. This week, attention will also be on U.S. economic data, particularly the consumer price index (CPI) figures set to be released on Tuesday. Market participants will be looking for insights on how the ongoing trade dispute has affected the U.S. economy and whether it could influence further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The greenback climbed 0.4% to 145.93 yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 147.80(50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.46(61.8fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 145.00(Psychological level)a break below could take the pair towards 143.36(May 8th low).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks advanced on Monday as signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks boosted hopes a global recession might be avoided, though specifics were still sorely lacking..
Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 0.42% , China A50 was up 0.88%, Hang Seng was up by 2.85%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices declined on Monday as signs of progress in U.S.-China trade talks reduced investor anxiety over escalating tariffs, prompting a move away from traditional safe-haven assets in favor of riskier, growth-linked investments.
Spot gold was down 1.4% at $3,277.84 an ounce, as of 0624 GMT. U.S. gold futures lost nearly 2% at $3,279.20.
Oil climbed by over $2 during Asian trading hours on Monday, driven by improved sentiment after the U.S. and China signaled plans to roll back certain tariffs.
Brent crude futures climbed $2.11, or 3.3%, to $64.14 a barrel by 0714 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures