Posted at 09 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Canada Avg hourly wages Permanent employee (Apr) 3.5%, 3.5% previous
• Canada Change (Apr) 7.4K, 4.1K forecast,-32.6K previous
• Canada Full Employment Change (Apr) 31.5K, -62.0K previous
• Canada Part Time Employment Change (Apr) -24.2K,29.5K previous
• Canada Participation Rate (Apr) 65.3%,65.2% previous
• Canada Unemployment Rate (Apr) 6.9%, 6.8% forecast, -6.7% previous
• U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 474, 479 previous
• U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 578, 584 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Friday as dollar lost ground as a U.S. trade deal with Britain fueled guarded optimism for U.S. tariff negotiations with China and other countries. As financial markets head into the weekend, attention remains firmly on the upcoming U.S.-China trade negotiations, set to begin Saturday in Switzerland. Despite the momentum from the UK deal, President Trump downplayed the idea of using it as a model for future agreements including those scheduled for Saturday, when U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet with China’s top economic official, He Lifeng. The dollar index =USD, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.28% to 100.37. The euro was up 0.25% at $1.1255 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1380(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1438 (April 28th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1187 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0980(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound held firm on Friday following news of a breakthrough trade agreement between the UK and the U.S. On Thursday, President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a limited bilateral deal. While the agreement maintains Trump’s 10% tariffs on British exports, it expands U.S. access to UK agricultural goods and reduces American tariffs on British car exports.The deal comes amid mounting investor pressure on the U.S. administration to ease trade tensions that have disrupted global commerce and fueled concerns over inflation and recession. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey welcomed the move but noted that many UK products still face steeper U.S. tariffs compared to levels before last month’s increases.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3343(April 24th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3449(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3253(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3161 (April 15th low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to a three-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as signs that trade tensions are hurting employment bolstered expectations for additional interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada. Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.9% in April, the highest level since November and above the 6.8% rate economists had expected, as the economy added just 7,400 jobs. The central bank left its benchmark rate on hold at 2.75% last month, its first pause since the easing campaign began in June.Investors see a roughly 60% chance that the BoC resumes cutting interest rates at its next policy decision on June 4, up from 46% before the employment report, overnight index swaps market data showed. The loonie was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3935 per U.S. dollar, Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4344 (SMA 14), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3920 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3761(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3728 (Oct 11th 2024 low )
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar was on course for a weekly gain against the Japanese yen on Friday, as investor focus shifted to the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks beginning Saturday in Switzerland. Market sentiment remained cautious ahead of the high-level discussions, which could shape the global trade outlook.In Japan, economic data added to concerns, with real wages falling for a third straight month in March down 2.1% year-on-year—highlighting the continued drag from inflation on household purchasing power. This follows declines of 1.5% in February and 2.8% in January.While consumer spending came in stronger than expected, the broader data points to a weak growth outlook. Economists now anticipate a GDP contraction in Q1, weighed down by persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Immediate resistance can be seen at 146.63(50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 147.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 144.09(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.46(May 7th low).
Equities Recap
European shares advanced on Friday, with Germany’s DAX index closing at a record high as easing global trade tensions lifted investor sentiment ahead of key U.S.-China talks scheduled for the weekend.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.27 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.63 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.64 percent.
U.S. stocks ended the week on a quiet note on Friday after oscillating between slight gains and declines, as investors gauged President Donald Trump's comments on Chinese tariffs ahead of weekend trade talks between the two countries..
Dow Jones closed up by 0.29%percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.07% percent, Nasdaq settled flat by 0.00% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold climbed more than 1% on Friday as the U.S. dollar weakened and investors weighed comments from President Donald Trump on tariffs ahead of the weekend’s U.S.-China trade talks.
Spot gold was up 1.1% at $3,340.29 an ounce at 1346 ET (17:46 GMT) and has gained 3.1% so far this week.
Oil prices climbed nearly 2% on Friday, marking their first weekly gain since mid-April, as a new U.S.-UK trade deal boosted investor optimism ahead of key U.S.-China talks.
Brent crude futures rose $1.07, or 1.7%, to settle at $63.91 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced $1.11, or about 1.9%, to settle at $61.02.