Posted at 08 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• German Exports (MoM) (Mar) 1.1%, 1.0% forecast,1.8% previous
• German Imports (MoM) (Mar) -1.4%, 0.4% forecast,0.5% previous
• German Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) 3.0%, 0.9% forecast, -1.3% previous
• German Trade Balance (Mar) 21.1B,19.0B forecast, 17.9B previous
• German Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) -0.42%, -4.10% previous
• Irish CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.4%,0.7% previous
• Irish HICP (YoY) (Apr) 2.0%,2.0% forecast, 1.8% previous
•UK BoE MPC vote cut (May) 7, 9 forecast, 1 previous
•UK BoE MPC vote hike (May) 0, 0 forecast, 0 previous
•UK BoE MPC vote unchanged (May) 2, 0 forecast, 8 previous
•UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (May) 4.25%, 4.25% forecast, 4.50% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,890K forecast, 1,916K previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 231K forecast, 241K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 226.00K previous
•12:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q1) -0.4% forecast, 1.5% previous
•12:30 US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q1) 5.3% forecast, 2.2% previous
•14:00 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Mar) 0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
•14:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Mar) 2.4% previous
•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 103B forecast, 107B previous
•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 4.240% previous
•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 4.220% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:00 Canada BoC Financial System Review
•13:00 ECB Supervisory Board Member Tuominen Speaks
•13:15 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped against the dollar on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced he would reveal "a major trade deal" later in the day. Trump stated he would hold a press conference at 1400 GMT about a deal with representatives of a "big, and highly respected, country," calling it "the first of many." He did not specify the country or provide further details. Trump suggested on Wednesday that Beijing initiated the talks, and said he was not willing to cut tariffs on Chinese goods to nurture negotiations. Meanwhile,U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer are scheduled to meet Chinese economic tsar He Lifeng in Switzerland this weekend, a move seen as a potential breakthrough in resolving trade tensions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1405 (April 28th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1530 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1266 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1198 (April 11th low).
GBP/USD: The British pound rose on Thursday after the Bank of England (BoE) implemented a widely expected interest rate cut. The BoE reduced its main rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, despite an unexpected three-way split among policymakers, as U.S. President Trump's tariffs continue to pressure global economic growth. The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 in favor of the rate cut, with Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor supporting a larger 50-point cut, while Huw Pill and Catherine Mann advocated for keeping rates steady. This decision marked the BoE's first move since Trump's announcement of broad tariffs on April 2, which briefly unsettled markets and led the IMF to lower growth forecasts for major economies, including the UK. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3343(April 24th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3449(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3253(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3161 (April 15th low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped on Thursday as the U.S. dollar held onto most of its overnight gains, with markets lowering the chances of near-term rate cuts. The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged on Wednesday but flagged rising risks of higher inflation and unemployment, adding uncertainty to the U.S. economic outlook amid President Trump's tariffs. During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank could not take preemptive actions until there's more clarity on the economy's direction.At GMT 12:16, the Australian dollar was down 0.08% to 0.6418 against the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6467(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6508(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6401(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6327(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against yen on Thursday as the dollar held most of its overnight gains as markets pushed out the chance of near-term rate cuts. Overnight, the Federal Reserve kept the policy rate at 4.25%-4.5% as expected, but warned that the risks of higher inflation and unemployment had increased.Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that it's uncertain whether the economy will maintain steady growth or falter amid rising uncertainty and a potential inflation spike.Markets reduced the likelihood of a US June rate cut to 20%, down from 30% the day before, while the chance of a July cut rose to 70%, compared to nearly certain just a week ago. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.43(50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.32 (Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.47(Daily low)a break below could take the pair towards 142.43(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Thursday after U.S. President Trump signaled progress on a potential first trade deal, lifting market sentiment amid ongoing global tariff tensions.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.34 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.18 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.20 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dropped on Thursday, reversing earlier gains, as U.S. President Donald Trump suggested a potential trade deal with Britain, easing trade tensions and diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven investment.
Spot gold was down 0.7% to $3,342.22 an ounce, as of 1157 GMT. U.S. gold futures slipped 1.3% to $3,347.90.
Oil prices gained over 1% on Thursday, driven by optimism for a breakthrough in the upcoming trade talks between the United States and China, the world’s two largest oil consumers.
Brent crude futures were up 86 cents, or 1.4%, at $61.98 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 97 cents, or around 1.7% to $59.03 a barrel at 1120 GMT.