Posted at 08 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• German Exports (MoM) (Mar) 1.1%, 1.0% forecast,1.8% previous
• German Imports (MoM) (Mar) -1.4%, 0.4% forecast,0.5% previous
• German Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) 3.0%, 0.9% forecast, -1.3% previous
• German Trade Balance (Mar) 21.1B,19.0B forecast, 17.9B previous
• German Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) -0.42%, -4.10% previous
Looking Ahead economic Data(GMT)
• 08:40 Spanish 3-Year Bonos Auction 2.292% previous
• 08:40 Spanish 30-Year Obligacion Auction 3.691% previous
• 08:40 Spanish 5-Year Bonos Auction 2.756% previous
• 09:00 UK Mortgage Rate (GBP) (Apr) 7.23% previous
•11:00 UK BoE MPC vote cut (May) 9 forecast, 1 previous
•11:00 UK MPC vote hike (May) 0 forecast,0 previous
•11:00 UK BoE MPC vote unchanged (May) 0 forecast ,8 previous
•11:00 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (May) 4.25%, 4.50% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 12:00 UK BOE Inflation Letter
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Thursday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. The Fed kept its benchmark interest rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range, but said that the risks of higher inflation and unemployment had risen and that the U.S. economic outlook remains uncertain. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reinforced that sentiment, saying the central bank cannot act pre-emptively when the path forward is unclear. Meanwhile,U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer are scheduled to meet Chinese economic tsar He Lifeng in Switzerland this weekend, a move seen as a potential breakthrough in resolving trade tensions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1405 (April 28th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1530 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1266 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1198 (April 11th low).
GBP/USD: The British pound remained steady on Thursday after reports suggested U.S. President Donald Trump would announce a trade deal with Britain, with market attention shifting to an expected rate cut from the Bank of England later in the day. The BoE is expected to cut its main interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% later on Thursday, with investors anticipating three more rate cuts by year-end, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.5%.Much has changed since the BoE's last monetary policy report in February, including Trump's proposals for global tariffs, embroiling the UK and other major trading partners in a trade war. Sterling initially climbed 0.5% against the dollar but trimmed gains to trade flat on the day at $1.3287. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3343(April 24th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3449(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3253(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3161 (April 15th low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped on Thursday as the U.S. dollar retained most of its overnight gains, with markets reducing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts. The Federal Reserve kept rates steady on Wednesday but highlighted rising risks of higher inflation and unemployment, adding uncertainty to the U.S. economic outlook amid President Trump's tariffs. During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank cannot make preemptive policy moves until there is more clarity on the economy’s direction.At GMT 07:38, the Australian dollar was up 0.09% to 0.6418 against the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6498(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6554(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6431(May 5th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6393(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened against yen on Thursday as the dollar held most of its overnight gains as markets pushed out the chance of near-term rate cuts. Overnight, the Federal Reserve kept the policy rate at 4.25%-4.5% as expected, but warned that the risks of higher inflation and unemployment had increased.Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that it's uncertain whether the economy will maintain steady growth or falter amid rising uncertainty and a potential inflation spike.Markets reduced the likelihood of a US June rate cut to 20%, down from 30% the day before, while the chance of a July cut rose to 70%, compared to nearly certain just a week ago. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.43(50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.32 (Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.47(Daily low)a break below could take the pair towards 142.43(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks advanced on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump flagged a first trade deal in his global tariff war.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 0.75%, South Korea's KOSPI was up 0.22 %,Hang Seng was up by 0.25%.
Commodities Recap
Gold reversed its direction on Thursday after reports that U.S. President Donald Trump signed a potential trade deal with Britain dampened sentiment, while investors awaited the results of U.S.-China trade talks over.
Spot gold was down 0.8% to $3,336.49 an ounce, as of 0618 GMT. The metal had risen more than 1% earlier in the session.
Oil rose on Thursday, recovering from a $1 drop in the previous session, driven by hopes of a breakthrough in upcoming U.S.-China trade talks, involving the world's two largest oil consumers.
Brent crude futures were up 10 cents, or 0.2%, at $61.22 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 13 cents, or 0.2% to $58.20 a barrel at 0632 GMT.