Posted at 07 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Finnish Trade Balance (Mar) -0.89B, -0.21B previous
•French Current Account (Mar) 1.40B,-1.60B previous
•French Exports (Mar) 52.6B,49.8B previous
•French Imports (Mar) 58.8B, 57.5B previous
•French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q1) 0.0%,0.0% forecast,-0.3% previous
•French Trade Balance (Mar) -6.2B,-7.0B forecast,-7.7B previous
•Swiss Foreign Reserves (USD) (Apr) 702.9B, 725.6B previous
•EU HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (Apr) 50.1, 52.4 previous
•EU HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Apr) 45.1,40.3 previous
•EU HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (Apr) 43.6, 43.8 previous
•EU HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (Apr) 46.0,44.8 previous
•Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) -2.8%,-1.4% previous
•Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) -0.5% ,0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Apr) 46.6 46.0 forecast,46.4 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -1.700M forecast,-2.696M previous
•14:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) 0.189M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Imports -0.663M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.682M previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production -0.017M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -2.700M forecast, 0.937M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Production -0.616M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro held steady against the dollar on Wednesday as investors awaited the upcoming U.S.-China summit, hoping for progress in easing trade tensions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and top trade negotiator Jamieson Greer will meet China’s economic chief He Lifeng in Switzerland this weekend in what could be a key step toward resolving the ongoing trade war. The talks come after weeks of escalating tariffs now over 100% with Bessent likening the standoff to a trade embargo. Meanwhile, attention also turns to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision later today, though expectations for a cut have faded following strong U.S. labor data. Markets now price in no move today and just a 33% chance of a cut in June, down from 64% a month ago. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1405 (April 28th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1530 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1266 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1198 (April 11th low).
GBP/USD: The British pound dipped slightly on Wednesday as markets shifted focus toward upcoming policy decisions from both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. The BoE is widely anticipated to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, but investor attention will be on the accompanying statement, with some speculating that the BoE may adopt a more aggressive easing stance in response to the global growth challenges caused by Trump’s tariffs. Additionally, the Bank of England has announced it will release its rate decision at 1102 GMT on Thursday, two minutes later than the usual 1100 GMT. Meanwhile, investors are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s meeting later in the day, hoping for insights from Chair Jerome Powell on the timing of potential U.S. rate cuts .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3343(April 24th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3449(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3253(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3161 (April 15th low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped lower from a five-month high on Wednesday as investor attention shifted to the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. Despite weeks of optimism, markets responded cautiously to news that senior trade officials from both nations will meet in Geneva this weekend. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer are set to hold discussions with China’s economic chief He Lifeng, a move seen as a potential step toward easing trade tensions. At the same time, market focus turned to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later today, with the Fed expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6498(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6554(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6431(May 5th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6393(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar rebounded from a one-week low against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, as optimism surrounding the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks diminished demand for the safe-haven currency. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer are scheduled to meet China’s top economic official, He Lifeng, in Switzerland this weekend for discussions. The two nations imposed reciprocal tariffs last month, escalating a trade war that has raised concerns of a global recession. Meanwhile, investors are closely monitoring the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later today, with the Federal Reserve expected to keep rates steady. While markets are factoring in a possible rate cut in July, some economists believe persistently high inflation may prevent any policy easing this year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.43(50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.31(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Wednesday as investors booked profits after a recent rally, while markets digested earnings reports and U.S.-China trade updates ahead of the Fed’s rate decision later today.
At GMT (12:10) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.45 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.04 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.55 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices dropped over 1% on Wednesday as optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade talks reduced demand for the safe-haven metal, with investors also awaiting the Federal Reserve's rate decision later in the day.
Spot gold was down 1.2% at $3,388.49 an ounce as of 1141 GMT, after a sharp rise in the previous session.U.S. gold futures lost 0.8% to $3,396.70.
Oil prices trimmed gains on Wednesday but still rose for a second consecutive session, supported by positive investor sentiment surrounding U.S.-China trade talks this weekend and signs of declining U.S. shale output.
Brent crude futures climbed 34 cents a barrel, or around 0.6%, to $62.49 a barrel by 1220 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 44 cents, or 0.7%, at $59.53 a barrel.