Posted at 07 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• New Zealand Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1) 0.1%,0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
• New Zealand Labor Cost Index (YoY) (Q1) 2.5%, 2.7% forecast,2.9% previous
• New Zealand Labor Cost Index (QoQ) (Q1) 0.4%,0.5% forecast,0.6% previous
• New Zealand Participation Rate (Q1) 70.80%, 71.00% forecast, 70.90% previous
• New Zealand Unemployment Rate (Q1) 5.1%,5.3% forecast, 5.1% previous
•Australia AIG Construction Index (Apr) -7.9 -19.3 previous
•Australia AIG Manufacturing Index (Apr) -26.5 ,-29.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•07:30 HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (Apr) 52.4 previous
•07:30 HCOB HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Apr) 40.3 previous
•07:30 HCOB HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (Apr) 43.8 previous
•07:30 HCOB HCOB Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (Apr) 44.8 previous
•08:00 Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) -1.5% previous
•08:00 Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.2%forecast,0.1% previous
•08:30UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Apr) 46.0 forecast,46.4 previous
•09:00 UK 5-Year Treasury Gilt Auction 4.142% previous
•09:00 French 10-Year OAT Auction 3.37% previous
•09:00 EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) -0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
•09:00 EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) 1.6% forecast,2.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro steadied against dollar on Wednesday as investors looked to the U.S.-China summit later in the week to ease trade-related concerns. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer are set to meet China’s economic tsar He Lifeng in Switzerland this weekend for talks that may mark the first step toward resolving the ongoing trade war disrupting the global economy. The meeting follows weeks of rising tensions, during which both countries imposed steep tariffs on each other’s goods now exceeding 100% with Bessent comparing the situation on Tuesday to a de facto trade embargo.The U.S. Federal Reserve meets to set interest rates later in the day, with expectations for cuts being dialled down after relatively solid U.S. labour data last week.Markets imply nearly no chance of a move on Wednesday and only a 33% chance of a cut in June, down from 64% a month ago. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1405 (April 28th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1530 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1266 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1198 (April 11th low).
GBP/USD: The British pound slipped slightly on Wednesday as markets turned their focus to upcoming policy decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. The BoE is widely expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, though investor attention will center on the accompanying statement, with some anticipating a more aggressive easing path in response to the global growth impact of Trump’s tariffs. The Bank of England also announced it will delay its rate decision release by two minutes on Thursday, publishing it at 1102 GMT instead of the usual 1100 GMT. Meanwhile, investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s meeting later today for any signals from Chair Jerome Powell on the timing of potential U.S. rate cuts.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3343(April 24th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3449(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3253(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3161 (April 15th low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower from a five-month high on Wednesday as investor focus shifted to upcoming U.S.-China trade talks and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. Despite weeks of optimism, markets reacted cautiously to news that top trade officials from both countries will meet in Geneva this weekend. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer are scheduled to hold talks with China’s economic czar He Lifeng, a move seen as a potential first step toward easing trade tensions. Meanwhile, market attention turned to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later today, with the Fed widely expected to hold interest rates steady.At GMT 04:50, the Australian dollar was down 0.18% to 0.6482against the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6498(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6554(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6431(May 5th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6393(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar rebounded from a one-week low against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, as optimism over upcoming U.S.-China trade talks reduced demand for the safe-haven currency. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and chief trade negotiator Jamieson Greer are scheduled to meet China’s top economic official, He Lifeng, in Switzerland this weekend for discussions. The two countries imposed tit-for-tat tariffs last month, escalating a trade war that has fueled fears of a global recession. Meanwhile, investors are closely watching the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later today, where the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. While markets are pricing in a potential rate cut in July, some economists argue that persistently high inflation may prevent any policy easing this year.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.43(50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.31(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks advanced on Wednesday as news of an upcoming meeting between top U.S. and Chinese trade officials pushed up hopes for a de-escalation in an ongoing trade war.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 0.20% , South Korea's KOSPI was up 0.55 %,Hang Seng was up by 0.59%.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Wednesday as hopes for U.S.-China trade talks reduced safe-haven demand, while investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later in the day.
Spot gold was down 1.3% at $3,383.88 an ounce, as of 0432 GMT. The metal climbed nearly 3% in the previous session.U.S. gold futures fell about 1% to $3,391.80.
Oil prices rose higher on Wednesday, hovering just above recent four-year lows, as markets looked to U.S.-China trade talks and indications of declining U.S. output.
Brent crude futures gained 44 cents a barrel, or 0.7%, to $62.59 a barrel by 0400 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 50 cents, or 0.9%, at $59.59 a barrel.