Posted at 06 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Swiss Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Apr) 2.8%, 2.9% previous
•Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Apr) 2.8%, 2.8% forecast,2.8% previous
•Sweden Services PMI (MoM) (Apr) 48.4, 49.3 previous
•French Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) 7.4K,6.5K forecast, -13.3K previous
•HCOB Spain Services PMI (Apr) 53.4,53.9 forecast,54.7previous
•HCOB Italy Composite PMI (Apr) 52.1, 50.5 previous
•HCOB Italy Services PMI (Apr) 52.9,51.3 forecast,52.0 previous
•HCOB France Composite PMI (Apr) 47.8, 47.3 forecast ,48.0 previous
•HCOB France Services PMI (Apr) 47.3, 46.8 forecast ,47.9 previous
•HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Apr): 50.1, 49.7 forecast, 51.3 previous
•HCOB Germany Services PMI (Apr) 49.0, 48.8 forecast ,50.9 previous
•UK Car Registration (YoY) (Apr) -10.4%, 12.4% previous
•HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Apr) 50.4,50.1 forecast , 50.9 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Apr) 50.1, 49.7 forecast , 51.0 previous
•UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Apr) 48.5, 48.2 forecast , 51.5 previous
•UK S&P Global Services PMI (Apr) 49.0 , 48.9 forecast , 52.5 previous
•EU PPI (MoM) (Mar) -1.6%,-1.4% forecast , 0.2% previous
•EU PPI (YoY) (Mar) 1.9%,2.0% forecast , 3.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Exports (Mar) 278.50B previous
•12:30 US Imports (Mar) 401.10B previous
•12:30 US Trade Balance (Mar) -136.80B forecast , -122.70B previous
•12:30 Canada Exports (Mar) 70.11B previous
•12:30 Canada Imports (Mar) 71.63B previous
•12:30 Canada Trade Balance (Mar) -1.70B forecast , -1.52B previous
•12:55 US Redbook (YoY) 6.1% previous
•14:00 Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Apr) 55.6 previous
•14:00 Canada Ivey PMI (Apr) 51.2 forecast , 51.3 previous
• 14:10 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (May) 50.2 forecast , 49.1 previous
•15:00 New Zealand GlobalDairyTrade Price Index 1.6% previous
•15:00 US Milk Auctions 4,385.0 previous
•17:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 1.1% forecast ,1.1% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro steadied on Tuesday despite German conservative leader Friedrich Merz unexpectedly failed to secure the parliamentary votes required to become chancellor. Friedrich Merz required 316 votes in the 630-seat Bundestag, but he only secured 310, marking a major setback for the Christian Democrat leader, just two and a half months after his party's victory in Germany's federal elections.While his centre-left coalition holds enough seats in parliament, 18 MPs who were expected to support him broke ranks. Merz's failure in the initial vote is viewed as unprecedented in modern German political history. The next major scheduled development for currency markets is Wednesday's Federal Reserve policy decision. The U.S. central bank is expected to keep rates on hold but the meeting may be the last where the outcome is so cut and dry. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1405 (April 28th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1530 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1266 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1198 (April 11th low).
GBP/USD: The British pound advanced against weaker dollar on Tuesday as market participants focus shifted to upcoming Bank of England policy meeting . The BoE is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, but attention will be on the accompanying statement, as some investors believe the bank should speed up rate cuts due to the impact of Trump’s tariffs on global growth. Markets see a 25 basis point rate cut as all but certain, and will be focusing on any indications of policymakers' plans for later in the year.The BoE said on Tuesday its announcement and economic forecasts will be delayed by two minutes and published at 1102 GMT rather than 1100 GMT, due to a national two-minute silence being held to commemorate the 80th anniversary of Victory in Europe (VE) Day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3439(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3540(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3237(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3070 (50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar briefly fell on Tuesday but recovered as the U.S. dollar weakened as investors grew uncertain about the outcome of potential U.S. trade deals. Focus remained on the possibility of eased tensions between the U.S. and China after Beijing revealed it was evaluating Washington’s offer to hold tariff talks.U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Sunday that the U.S. is engaging with multiple countries, including China, with the aim of securing a fair trade agreement. However, with few concrete details emerging investors have been left to decipher the uncertain messages from the White House. The next major event is the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on Wednesday, where interest rates are expected to remain steady.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6498(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6554(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6431(May 5th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6393(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar weakened against the Japanese yen as rising concerns over U.S. President Trump's tariff proposals fueled demand for the safe-haven yen. On Sunday, Trump announced plans for a 100% tariff on overseas-produced movies, but offered few details on its implementation. The next day, he revealed plans to impose pharmaceutical tariffs within two weeks. Investors are now looking for concrete progress in trade talks and clear signs of improving Sino-U.S. relations. Attention this week shifts to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on Wednesday likely to offer insight into the central bank's future rate trajectory. The Fed has maintained its policy rate between 4.25% and 4.50% since December. The dollar was last down 0.5% on the Japanese yen at 142.99 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 143.56(50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.31 (Daily high) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.07(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 141.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European stocks declined on Tuesday, with German equities underperforming after conservative leader Friedrich Merz failed to secure a parliamentary majority to become chancellor. Meanwhile, lingering uncertainty over U.S. tariffs continued to dampen investor sentiment.
At GMT (11:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.15 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.81 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.47 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices reached a two-week high on Tuesday, boosted by renewed safe-haven demand following fresh tariff threats from President Trump, with markets also eyeing the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision.
Spot gold rose 1.4% to $3,381.37 an ounce, as of 1009 GMT, after hitting its highest since April 22 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures gained 2% to $3,389.20.
Oil climbed more than $1 a barrel on Tuesday, recovering from the prior session’s losses driven by OPEC+ output hike plans, as technical support and dip buying lifted prices despite ongoing market surplus worries.
Brent crude futures rose $1.23, or 2%, to $61.46 a barrel by 1125 GMT, the first gain after six consecutive declines, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude added $1.20, or 2.1%, to $58.33 a barrel.