Posted at 05 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.0%, 0.2% forecast,0.0% previous
•Swiss CPI (YoY) (Apr) 0.0%, 0.3% previous
•EU Sentix Investor Confidence (May) -8.1, -14.9 forecast, -19.5 previous
•French Car Registration (YoY) (Apr) -5.6%, -14.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 13:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 1.905% previous
• 13:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.128% previous
•13:45 US S&P Global Composite PMI (Apr) 51.2, 53.5 previous
•13:45 US S S&P Global Services PMI (Apr) 51.4 forecast, 54.4 previous
•14:00 US CB Employment Trends Index (Apr) 109.03 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Apr) 55.9 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Apr) 46.2 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Apr) 50.4 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 50.2 forecast, 50.8 previous
•14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Apr) 60.9 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Monday as investors awaited further details on the U.S.-China trade negotiations. Investor sentiment has improved in recent sessions amid hopes that both sides may be moving toward a de-escalation of tensions.On Friday, Beijing confirmed it is reviewing a U.S. proposal to restart trade talks, following Washington’s imposition of 145% tariffs a move met with 125% retaliatory duties from China. In parallel, the Trump administration indicated it is nearing trade agreements with several other partners, including India, South Korea, and Japan, in a bid to avoid implementing further tariffs in the coming weeks.In the euro zone, attention this week turns to key economic data. Retail sales and final PMI readings will offer fresh insight into consumer activity and business sentiment, while Germany the bloc’s largest economy will release figures on factory orders, industrial production, and trade performance. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1405 (April 28th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1530 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1266 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1198 (April 11th low).
GBP/USD: The British pound firmed on Monday as dollar softened as markets remained cautious ahead of further developments in U.S.-China trade relations. With UK markets closed for a bank holiday, trading volumes were thin, but attention is firmly set on a busy data calendar for the week ahead. UK industrial and manufacturing production figures, the NIESR monthly GDP estimate, S&P’s construction PMI, and final readings of the services and composite PMIs is due this week.The main event will be Thursday’s BoE interest rate decision. The BoE is widely expected to hold interest rates at 5.25% on Thursday, but markets will focus on any shift in the vote split or dovish signals.Market participants are also eyeing comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and MPC member Huw Pill, both scheduled to speak on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3343(April 24th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3449(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3253(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3161 (April 15th low).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Monday as a weaker U.S. dollar and easing U.S.-China trade tensions lifted Australian dollar. President Donald Trump in interview reiterated that he believed China wanted to do a deal, but offered no details or timeline. Negotiations between the U.S. and its major trading partners continue to draw attention, amid optimism for a de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tension. Australia’s economic calendar for the week is relatively light, with only a few key data releases scheduled. This lighter data week could result in less volatility, leaving the Australian dollar sensitive to external factors like global trade developments and movements in the U.S. dollar.At GMT 12:20, The Australian dollar was 0.63% stronger at $0.6483 against US dollar,its highest level since 5 Dec 2024. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6498(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6554(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6431(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6393(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar weakened against the Japanese yen on Monday as investors awaited updates on U.S.-China trade talks. Market sentiment is optimistic that both nations will avoid a full-scale trade war, with expectations that President Trump will negotiate deals to prevent higher tariffs. On Sunday, Trump mentioned that the U.S. was engaged in trade discussions with several countries, including China, with a focus on securing a fair trade agreement. This week, the market's attention will turn to the U.S. Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision and speeches by several Fed officials, which could offer clues on the future path of monetary policy. Following stronger-than-expected job growth in April, traders are now anticipating 80 basis points of rate cuts this year, starting in July. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.43(50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.31(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares remained largely unchanged on Monday as investors waited for more details on the U.S.-China trade talks. Attention was also on upcoming corporate earnings reports and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later this week, which could influence market sentiment.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.17 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.86 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.61 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices surged by more than 1% on Monday, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar, as investors awaited further updates on the U.S.-China trade talks.
Spot gold rose 1.8% to $3,298.09 an ounce, as of 0928 GMT, after posting its worst week since February last week. U.S. gold futures climbed almost 2% to $3,306.50.
Oil prices fell more than 1% on Monday after OPEC+ decided over the weekend to accelerate oil output hikes, raising concerns about an oversupply in a market already facing an uncertain demand outlook.
Brent crude futures dropped by 70 cents, or 1.14%, to $60.59 a barrel by 1131 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $57.54 a barrel, down 75 cents, or 1.29%.