Posted at 05 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (Apr) 0.5%, 0.4% previous
• Australia MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) (Apr) 0.6%, 0.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:30 EU Sentix Investor Confidence (May) -14.9forecast, -19.5 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Monday as investors awaited further details on the U.S.-China trade negotiations. Investor sentiment has improved in recent sessions amid hopes that both sides may be moving toward a de-escalation of tensions.On Friday, Beijing confirmed it is reviewing a U.S. proposal to restart trade talks, following Washington’s imposition of 145% tariffs a move met with 125% retaliatory duties from China. In parallel, the Trump administration indicated it is nearing trade agreements with several other partners, including India, South Korea, and Japan, in a bid to avoid implementing further tariffs in the coming weeks.In the euro zone, attention this week turns to key economic data. Retail sales and final PMI readings will offer fresh insight into consumer activity and business sentiment, while Germany the bloc’s largest economy will release figures on factory orders, industrial production, and trade performance. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1405 (April 28th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1530 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1266 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1198 (April 11th low).
GBP/USD: The British pound firmed on Monday as dollar softened as markets remained cautious ahead of further developments in U.S.-China trade relations. With UK markets closed for a bank holiday, trading volumes were thin, but attention is firmly set on a busy data calendar for the week ahead. Key UK economic indicators due this week include industrial and manufacturing production figures, the NIESR monthly GDP estimate, S&P’s construction PMI, and final readings of the services and composite PMIs. These releases will offer further insight into the strength of the UK economy amid ongoing signs of deceleration.Market participants are also eyeing comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and MPC member Huw Pill, both scheduled to speak on Friday. However, the main event will be Thursday’s BoE interest rate decision. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3343(April 24th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3449(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3253(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3161 (April 15th low).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar strengthened on Monday as a weaker U.S. dollar and easing U.S.-China trade tensions lifted Australian dollar. President Donald Trump in interview reiterated that he believed China wanted to do a deal, but offered no details or timeline. Negotiations between the U.S. and its major trading partners continue to draw attention, amid optimism for a de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tension. Australia’s economic calendar for the week is relatively light, with only a few key data releases scheduled.At GMT 05:26, The Australian dollar was 0.60% stronger at $0.6482 against US dollar,its highest level since 5 Dec 2024. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6498(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6554(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6431(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6393(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar as dollar weakened as investors awaited developments in U.S.-China trade relations. Financial markets are betting the U.S. and China will pull back from an all-out trade war and that Trump will cut deals to avert higher tariffs on others. Trump on Sunday said the U.S. was meeting with many countries, including China, on trade deals, and his main priority with China was to secure a fair trade deal.The market's focus will be on the U.S. central bank policy decision and speeches by several Fed officials due this week, for insights into future monetary policy trajectory.Traders are now expecting 80 basis points of rate cuts this year starting in July, following larger-than-expected U.S. job additions in April. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.43(50%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143.31(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian stock markets were subdued on Monday as investors awaited clarity on U.S.-China trade talks.
Major regional markets, including Japan, China, Hong Kong, and South Korea, were closed for public holidays.
Commodities Recap
Gold edged higher on Monday, bolstered by a weaker dollar, as investors remained cautious, awaiting developments in U.S.-China trade relations and the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting later this week.
Spot gold gained 0.6% to $3,259.29 an ounce, as of 0623 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.8% to $3,267.70.
Oil prices slipped more than $1 a barrel on Monday, driven by concerns over rising supply. OPEC+ is poised to accelerate its oil output increases, raising fears of an oversupplied market at a time when the demand outlook remains uncertain.
Brent crude futures dropped $1.34, or 2.19%, to $59.95 a barrel by 0717 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $56.87 a barrel, down $1.42, or 2.44%.