Posted at 02 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 49.3,47.1 forecast, 46.6 previous
• HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 48.7, 48.2 forecast, 48.5 previous
• HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 48.4, 48.0 forecast, 48.3 previous
• Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Mar) 6.0%, 6.0% forecast, 5.9% previous
• S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 53.2,55.0 previous
• HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 49.0 ,48.7 forecast, 48.6 previous
• EU Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) 1.0%, 1.0% previous
• EU Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) 2.7%,2.5% forecast, 2.4% previous
• EU CPI (YoY) (Apr) 2.2%,2.1% forecast, 2.2% previous
• EU CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.6%,0.6% previous
• EU CPI, n.s.a (Apr) 128.76,128.04 previous
• EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Apr) 2.7% 2.5% previous
• EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Apr) 0.9%, 0.8% previous
• EU Unemployment Rate (Mar) 6.2%,6.1% forecast, 6.2% previous
Looking Ahead economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Apr): 3.9% forecast, 3.8% previous
•12:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Apr): 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•12:30 US Average Weekly Hours (Apr): 34.2 forecast, 34.2 previous
•12:30 US Government Payrolls (Apr): 19K previous
•12:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls (Apr): -5K forecast, 1K previous
•12:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr): 138K forecast, 228K previous
•12:30 US Participation Rate (Apr): 62.5% previous
•12:30 US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr): 124K forecast, 209K previous
•12:30 US U6 Unemployment Rate (Apr): 7.9% previous
•12:30 US Unemployment Rate (Apr): 4.2% forecast, 4.2% previous
•14:00 US Durable Goods Orders ex-Defense (MoM) (Mar): 10.4% previous
•14:00 US Durable Goods Orders ex-Transport (MoM) (Mar): 0.0% previous
•14:00 US Factory Orders (MoM) (Mar): 4.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
•14:00 US Factory Orders ex-Transportation (MoM) (Mar): 0.4% previous
•14:00 US Total Vehicle Sales (Apr): 15.70M forecast, 17.77M previous
•17:00 US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count: 485 forecast, 483 previous
•17:00 US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count: 587 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Friday as slightly upbeat data and soft dollar supported euro. Euro zone manufacturing output grew at the fastest pace in just over three years in April despite overall factory activity remaining in contraction territory, with the big three economies showing signs of improvement, a survey showed on Friday.HCOB's euro zone final headline manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, rose to 49.0 in April from 48.6 in March, marking its highest level in 32 months but remaining below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction. Germany, France and Italy the bloc's largest economies all showed improvements, though their PMIs remained in contraction territory. The market now awaits the U.S. non-farm payrolls report due at 1230 GMT for more cues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1405 (April 28th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1530 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1266 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1198 (April 11th low).
GBP/USD: The British pound firmed on Friday as dollar weakned ahead of payrolls report . Investors are closely awaiting the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which is expected later in the day. The data is seen as a critical indicator of the health of the U.S. labor market, and its outcome could provide important insights into the timing of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A weaker-than-expected payrolls report could fuel speculation that the Fed will cut rates sooner rather than later, potentially weakening the U.S. dollar and impacting global currency markets. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected report could reinforce expectations that the Fed will hold off on rate cuts, which could support the dollar and put downward pressure on the pound. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3343(April 24th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3449(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3253(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3161 (April 15th low).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar strengthened on Friday as growing optimism over US-China trade deal supported risk sensitive Australian dollar. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on Thursday that formal discussions with China are expected to take place soon, marking a potentially significant moment in the evolving relationship between the two global powers. On the data front, Australian retail sales rose by 0.3% month-on-month in March 2025, slightly below the anticipated 0.4% increase, highlighting ongoing consumer caution despite recent monetary easing. Attention is now turning to the release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later in the day. The data will be closely analyzed for clues on US labor market strength and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6372(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards (Feb 21st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6324(April 16th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6286(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar pulled back slightly on Friday as market participants remained cautious ahead of crucial non-farm payrolls data later in the day. Market participants are looking to the nonfarm payrolls report for an indication on when the Federal Reserve will resume cutting rates.U.S. job growth likely slowed in April, with economists forecasting an increase of 130,000 nonfarm payrolls, down from 228,000 in March .The Bank of Japan on Thursday sharply lowered growth forecasts due to U.S. tariffs and left interest rates on hold, suggesting the central bank could keep policy in a holding pattern for some time. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda noted that the timeline for inflation to reach the 2% target has been pushed back somewhat, signaling a likely pause in further rate hikes amid uncertainty from rising tariffs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.55 (50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142. 67 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 141. 85(April 29th low).
Equities Recap
European shares rallied on Friday as hopes of easing U.S.-China trade tensions boosted risk appetite, with investors also digesting a wave of corporate earnings and crucial economic data.
At GMT (12:10) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.78 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.71 percent, France’s CAC was down by 1.57 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices declined on Friday as traders adjusted positions ahead of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, while cautious optimism over a possible easing in U.S.-China trade tensions also weighed on sentiment.
Brent crude futures were down 56 cents, or 0.9%, to $61.57 a barrel at 1202 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 61 cents, or 1%, to $58.63 a barrel.
Gold gained on Friday as buyers stepped in following a recent dip to a two-week low, with attention turning to the upcoming U.S. jobs report
Spot gold was up 0.8% at $3,267.56 an ounce, as of 1148 GMT. Bullion has lost 1.5% so far this week.