Posted at 02 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Japan Jobs/applications ratio (Mar) 1.26, 1.25 forecast, 1.24 previous
• Japan Unemployment Rate (Mar) 2.5%, 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
• Japan Foreign Bonds Buying 435.2B 218.2B previous
• Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks 278.3B, 705.6B previous
• Japan Monetary Base (YoY) (Apr) -5.1%, -2.0% forecast, previous -3.2% previous
•Australia PPI (YoY) (Q1) 3.7%, 3.7% previous
•Australia PPI (QoQ) (Q1) 0.9%,0.8% forecast, 0.8% previous
•Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 0.8% previous
•Australia Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1) 0.0%,0.8% previous
Looking Ahead economic Data(GMT)
•07:30 HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 47.1 forecast, 46.6 previous
•08: 00 HCOB HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 48.2 forecast, 48.5 previous
•08: 00 HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 48.0 forecast, 48.3 previous
•08: 15 Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Mar) 6.0% forecast, 5.9% previous
•08: 15 S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 55.0 previous
•08: 15 HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 48.7 forecast, 48.6 previous.
•08:30 Portuguese CPI (YoY) (Apr) 1.9% previous
•08:30 Portuguese CPI (MoM) (Apr) 1.4% previous
•09:00 EU Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) 1.0% previous
•09:00 EU Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) 2.5% forecast, 2.4% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Apr) 2.1% forecast, 2.2% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.6% previous
•09:00 EU CPI, n.s.a (Apr) 128.04 previous
•09:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Apr) 2.5% previous
•09:00 HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Apr) 0.8% previous
•09:00 EU Unemployment Rate (Mar) 6.1% forecast,6.1% previous
•09:30 French Car Registration (YoY) (Apr) -14.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The Euro edged higher on Friday amid signs of a possible thaw between the United States and China on trade talks. China’s Commerce Ministry said Friday that the U.S. has repeatedly shown interest in negotiating on tariffs, and Beijing remains open to talks a statement that could help ease global trade tensions. The market now awaits the U.S. non-farm payrolls report due at 1230 GMT for more cues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 130,000 jobs last month after rising by 228,000 in March, a survey of economists showed. The euro edged up 0.1% to $1.1299 from near a three-week low. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1405 (April 28th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1530 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1266 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1198 (April 11th low).
GBP/USD: The British pound saw modest gains on Friday as market participants held off from making significant moves ahead of payrolls report . Investors are closely awaiting the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which is expected later in the day. The data is seen as a critical indicator of the health of the U.S. labor market, and its outcome could provide important insights into the timing of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A weaker-than-expected payrolls report could fuel speculation that the Fed will cut rates sooner rather than later, potentially weakening the U.S. dollar and impacting global currency markets. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected report could reinforce expectations that the Fed will hold off on rate cuts, which could support the dollar and put downward pressure on the pound. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3343(April 24th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3449(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3253(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3161 (April 15th low).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar strengthened on Friday as growing optimism over US-China trade deal supported risk sensitive Australian dollar. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on Thursday that formal discussions with China are expected to take place soon, marking a potentially significant moment in the evolving relationship between the two global powers. On the data front, Australian retail sales rose by 0.3% month-on-month in March 2025, slightly below the anticipated 0.4% increase, highlighting ongoing consumer caution despite recent monetary easing. Attention is now turning to the release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report due later in the day. The data will be closely analyzed for clues on US labor market strength and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6372(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards (Feb 21st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6324(April 16th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6286(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar pulled back slightly on Friday as market participants remained cautious ahead of crucial non-farm payrolls data later in the day. Market participants are looking to the nonfarm payrolls report for an indication on when the Federal Reserve will resume cutting rates.U.S. job growth likely slowed in April, with economists forecasting an increase of 130,000 nonfarm payrolls, down from 228,000 in March .The Bank of Japan on Thursday sharply lowered growth forecasts due to U.S. tariffs and left interest rates on hold, suggesting the central bank could keep policy in a holding pattern for some time. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda noted that the timeline for inflation to reach the 2% target has been pushed back somewhat, signaling a likely pause in further rate hikes amid uncertainty from rising tariffs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.55 (50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142. 67 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 141. 85(April 29th low).
Equities Recap
Asian markets surged on Friday as hopes for U.S.–China trade talks boosted sentiment, offsetting concerns from weak earnings by Apple and Amazon.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 0.98% , South Korea's KOSPI was up 0.12 %,Hang Seng was up by 1.83%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Friday as investors flocked to buy the metal following a two-week low the previous day, triggered by easing trade tensions.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,254.51 an ounce, as of 0610 GMT.U.S. gold futures rose 1.3% to $3,263.
Oil prices rose on Friday following China's announcement that it was open to negotiations with the United States on tariffs. This sparked optimism about a potential de-escalation in the ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies and oil consumers, boosting market sentiment.
Brent crude futures rose 42 cents, or 0.7%, to $62.55 a barrel by 0734 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures added 43 cents, or 0.7%, to $59.67 a barrel.
Oil prices surged on Friday after China expressed its willingness to engage in tariff talks with the United States, fueling optimism about a potential de-escalation of the trade war between the two largest global economies and oil consumers
Brent crude futures rose 42 cents, or 0.7%, to $62.55 a barrel by 0734 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures added 43 cents, or 0.7%, to $59.67 a barrel.