Posted at 02 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,916K,1,860K forecast, 1,841K previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 241K, 224K forecast, 222K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 226.00K,220.25Kprevious
• Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 45.3,46.3 previous
• US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 50.2, 50.7 forecast, 50.2 previous
• US Construction Spending (MoM) (Mar) -0.5% ,0.2% forecast, 0.7% previous
• US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Apr) 46.5, 44.7 previous
• US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Apr) 47.2,45.2 previous
• US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 48.7,48.0 forecast, 49.0 previous
• US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Apr) 69.8,72.9 forecast, 69.4 previous
• US 4-Weeks Bill Auction 4.240%,4.220%previous
• US 8-Week Bill Auction4.220%, 4.225% previous
•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 1.1%, 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
•Japan Jobs/applications ratio (Mar) 1.26, 1.25 forecast, 1.24 previous
•Japan Unemployment Rate (Mar) 2.5%, 2.4% forecast,2.4% previous
•Japan Foreign Bonds Buying 435.2B , 218.2B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 01:30 Australia PPI (YoY) (Q1) 3.7% previous
•01:30 Australia PPI (QoQ) (Q1) 0.8% forecast, 0.8% previous
•01:30 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous
•01:30 Australia Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1) 1.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped to hit three week low on Thursday as U.S. dollar continued firm as investors more optimistic about tariff deals between the United States and its trading partners. Volume was thinner than usual, as many international markets were closed on Thursday for the May Day holiday.the euro fell to a three-week Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett voiced optimism on Thursday about potential progress in resolving trade tensions. Speaking to CNBC, Hassett noted that there have been "loose discussions" within both the U.S. and Chinese governments. He pointed to China’s recent move to ease tariffs on some U.S. goods as a positive step toward de-escalation. The euro fell to a three-week trough versus the greenback and was last down 0.4% at $1.1286 . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1405 (April 28th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1530 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1276 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1198 (April 11th low).
GBP/USD: The British pound slipped early Thursday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of upcoming economic data and global development on tariffs. Attention remained focused on Friday’s highly anticipated U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence global risk sentiment and interest rate expectations, indirectly impacting risk-sensitive currencies. U.S. initial jobless claims in the latest week surged to a two-month high. Initial claims for unemployment benefits jumped 18,000 to 241,000 for the week ended April 26, the highest since February.A separate report showed U.S. manufacturing contracted further in April, while tariffs on imported goods strained supply chains, lifting prices paid for inputs and keeping the narrative on stagflation alive and well.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3407(April 30th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3476(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3279 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3173 (SMA 21).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar lost ground against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, reversing part of the sharp gains it had made over the previous month following the release of U.S. manufacturing data, which showed that the sector deteriorated less than economists had expected. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.7 in April, marking a five-month low. However, the reading was slightly better than expectations, with economists forecasting a drop to 48.0. Separate data showed S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 45.3 last month from 46.3 in March, its lowest level since May 2020. The loonie was trading 0.4% lower at 1.3850 per U.S. dollar after trading in a range of 1.3785 to 1.3862. In April, the currency climbed 4.3%, its biggest monthly advance in a decade. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3915 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4018 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3781(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3644(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against yen on Thursday as the Bank of Japan lowered growth forecasts in light of U.S. tariffs and left rates on hold. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, in line with market expectations, signaling a continued cautious stance amid ongoing economic uncertainties. The BOJ warned that higher tariffs would negatively impact Japan's economy by slowing global trade, dampening business confidence, and increasing uncertainty and market volatility. The central bank projected inflation would stay roughly on course to hit its 2% target in the coming years, a sign that risks from U.S. tariffs might only delay, not derail, its rate hike plans.The Bank of Japan projected real GDP growth of 0.5% for the 2025-26 fiscal year, down from 1.1%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 145.65 (50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 143. 15 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 138. 85(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
The FTSE 100 saw choppy trading on Thursday amid thin volumes, with most European markets shut for the May Day holiday.
U.S. stocks advanced on Thursday, with the Dow and S&P 500 posting their eighth straight session of gains after strong results from megacaps Microsoft and Meta eased concerns about artificial intelligence spending.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.21 %percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.63% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.52% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell to a two-week low on Thursday, weighed down by signs of easing trade tensions and a holiday in China, one of the world’s top consumers of the metal.
Spot gold was down 2.3% at $3,211.53 an ounce at 1:44 p.m. ET (1744 GMT), after hitting its lowest since April 14 earlier in the session. Prices hit a record $3,500.05/oz last week.
Oil prices settled nearly 2% higher on Thursday following U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of secondary sanctions on Iran after the postponement of a fourth round of U.S.-Iran talks. The move raised concerns over potential disruptions in global oil supply, providing a boost to crude prices.
Brent crude futures settled at $62.13 a barrel, up $1.07, 1.8%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed $1.03, or 1.8%, higher at $59.24 a barrel.