Posted at 01 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• UK BoE Consumer Credit (Mar) 0.875B,1.200B forecast, 1.358B previous
• UK M3 Money Supply (Mar) 3,129.5B, 3,119.0B previous
• UK M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Mar) 0.3% ,0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 45.4, 44.0 forecast, 44.9 previous
• UK Mortgage Approvals (Mar) 64.31K, 64.00K forecast, 65.48K previous
• UK Mortgage Lending (Mar) 12.96B ,3.80B forecast, 3.29B previous
• UK Net Lending to Individuals (Mar) 13.800B, 4.400B forecast, 4.600B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,860K forecast, 1,841K previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 224K forecast, 222K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 220.25K previous
•13:30 Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 46.3 previous
•13:45 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 50.7 forecast, 50.2 previous
•14:00 US Construction Spending (MoM) (Mar) 0.2% forecast, 0.7% previous
•14:00 US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Apr) 44.7, previous
•14:00 US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Apr) 45.2 previous
•14:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 48.0 forecast, 49.0 previous
• 14:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Apr) 72.9 forecast, 69.4 previous
• 14:00 USD Natural Gas Storage 111B forecast, 88B previous
• 15:30 US 4-Weeks Bill Auction 4.220% previous
• 15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction: 4.225% previous
• 17:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
• 20:30 US Fed's Balance Sheet 6,727B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped to hit two week low on Thursday as greenback firmed ahead of key U.S. economic data releases. With jobless claims, the ISM manufacturing survey, and Friday's closely watched non-farm payrolls report on the horizon, market participants favored the greenback, viewing it as a safer bet amid growing uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. The anticipation of solid U.S. data has bolstered expectations that interest rates could remain higher for longer, adding further support to the dollar . A surge in imports ahead of tariffs pushed U.S. GDP into contraction in the first quarter, data showed overnight, though some economists saw resilience in private demand as an encouraging sign. The euro down about 0.13% to a two-week low of $1.1314. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1405 (April 28th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1530 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1276 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1198 (April 11th low).
GBP/USD: The British pound slipped early Thursday but later regained some ground as traders adjusted positions ahead of upcoming U.S. economic releases. Jobless claims and the ISM manufacturing data are due later Thursday, all eyes are on Friday’s April non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to provide a clearer picture of the U.S. economy’s health. The US economy has shown resilience in recent months, any sharp slowdown in job creation or a rise in unemployment could shift sentiment and pressure the Federal Reserve to reconsider its current stance on interest rates.Meanwhile, UK manufacturing activity declined for a seventh consecutive month in April, as Trump’s tariffs and rising employer taxes in Britain weighed on the sector, a survey showed on Thursday.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3407(April 30th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3476(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3279 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3173 (SMA 21).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased slightly on Thursday as the greenback strengthened as investors focused on signs the trade war may be cooling down. Trump said Wednesday he sees potential trade deals with India, South Korea, and Japan, and a strong chance of a deal with China. The U.S. economy shrank in Q1 FY2025 for the first time in three years, as businesses rushed imports ahead of Trump’s expected tariffs. The dollar has struggled in the trade war due to Trump's shifting tariffs, which hurt growth outlook and investor confidence. Markets await Friday's non-farm payrolls report for clues on the Fed's policy direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6435 ( 38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6543 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6352 (50%fib) , a break below could take the pair towards 0.6295 (SMA 21).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against yen on Wednesday as the Bank of Japan lowered growth forecasts in light of U.S. tariffs and left rates on hold. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, in line with market expectations, signaling a continued cautious stance amid ongoing economic uncertainties. The BOJ warned that higher tariffs would negatively impact Japan's economy by slowing global trade, dampening business confidence, and increasing uncertainty and market volatility. The central bank projected inflation would stay roughly on course to hit its 2% target in the coming years, a sign that risks from U.S. tariffs might only delay, not derail, its rate hike plans.The Bank of Japan projected real GDP growth of 0.5% for the 2025-26 fiscal year, down from 1.1%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.55 (50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142. 67 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 141. 85(April 29th low).
Equities Recap
The FTSE 100 saw choppy trading on Thursday amid thin volumes, with most European markets shut for the May Day holiday.
Commodities Recap
Gold slid nearly 2% to a two-week low on Thursday, as improving trade sentiment reduced its safe-haven appeal and a firm U.S. dollar added to the downward pressure on prices.
Spot gold was down almost 2% to $3,222.66 an ounce at 1129 GMT, after hitting its lowest since April 15.U.S. gold futures were down 2.7% to $3,230.80.
Oil declined further on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session amid signs Saudi Arabia may boost output and data showing a contraction in the U.S. economy, the largest consumer of crude.
Brent crude futures fell $1.1, or 1.8%, to $59.96 a barrel as at 1207 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.14, or 2%, to $57.07.