Posted at 01 May 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Japan au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 48.7, 48.5 forecast, 48.4 previous
• Australia Export Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 2.1%,3.6% previous
• Australia Exports (MoM) (Mar) 7.6%,-4.2% previous
• Australia Import Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 3.3%, 0.3% forecast 0.2% previous
• Australia Imports (MoM) (Mar) -2.2%, 1.8% previous
• Australia Trade Balance (Mar) 6.900B, 3.230B forecast, 2.852B previous
•Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.50%, 0.50% forecast, 0.50% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 08:30 UK BoE Consumer Credit (Mar) 1.200B forecast, 1.358B previous
• 08:30 UK M3 Money Supply (Mar) 3,119.0B previous
• 08:30 UK M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Mar) 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 08:30 UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 44.0 forecast, 44.9 previous
• 08:30 UK Mortgage Approvals (Mar) 64.00K forecast, 65.48K previous
• 08:30 UK Mortgage Lending (Mar) 3.80B forecast, 3.29B previous
• 08:30 UK Net Lending to Individuals (Mar) 4.400B forecast, 4.600B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped to hit two week low on Thursday as greenback firmed ahead of key U.S. economic data releases. With jobless claims, the ISM manufacturing survey, and Friday's closely watched non-farm payrolls report on the horizon, market participants favored the greenback, viewing it as a safer bet amid growing uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. The anticipation of solid U.S. data has bolstered expectations that interest rates could remain higher for longer, adding further support to the dollar . A surge in imports ahead of tariffs pushed U.S. GDP into contraction in the first quarter, data showed overnight, though some economists saw resilience in private demand as an encouraging sign. The euro down about 0.2% to a two-week low of $1.13. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1405 (April 28th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1530 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1276 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1198 (April 11th low).
GBP/USD: The British pound slipped lower on Thursday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar as investors turned cautious ahead of crucial U.S. economic releases. Investors are focusing on upcoming U.S. economic data, including Jobless claims, the ISM manufacturing survey later on Thursday and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which could provide further insight into the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. The dollar has been one of the biggest casualties of the trade war, with Trump’s fluctuating tariffs hurting growth expectations and shaking confidence. However, the dollar has rebounded from its lows as Trump suspended many of the tariff hikes and hinted at potential deals, including with China, which faces the highest levies.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3407(April 30th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3476(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3279 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3173 (SMA 21).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased slightly on Thursday as the greenback strengthened as investors focused on signs the trade war may be cooling down. Trump said Wednesday he sees potential trade deals with India, South Korea, and Japan, and a strong chance of a deal with China. The U.S. economy shrank in Q1 FY2025 for the first time in three years, as businesses rushed imports ahead of Trump’s expected tariffs. The dollar has struggled in the trade war due to Trump's shifting tariffs, which hurt growth outlook and investor confidence. Markets await Friday's non-farm payrolls report for clues on the Fed's policy direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6435 ( 38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6543 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6352 (50%fib) , a break below could take the pair towards 0.6295 (SMA 21).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against yen on Thursday as the Bank of Japan lowered growth forecasts in light of U.S. tariffs and left rates on hold. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, in line with market expectations, signaling a continued cautious stance amid ongoing economic uncertainties. The BOJ warned that higher tariffs would negatively impact Japan's economy by slowing global trade, dampening business confidence, and increasing uncertainty and market volatility. The central bank projected inflation would stay roughly on course to hit its 2% target in the coming years, a sign that risks from U.S. tariffs might only delay, not derail, its rate hike plans.The Bank of Japan projected real GDP growth of 0.5% for the 2025-26 fiscal year, down from 1.1%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 144.55 (50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142. 67 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 141. 85(April 29th low).
Equities Recap
Most Asian markets were shut on Thursday for holidays, but Japan's stock market advanced as the Bank of Japan's widely expected decision to keep interest rates steady boosted investor sentiment.
Commodities Recap
Gold slipped to a two-week low on Thursday as a stronger dollar and fading trade tensions reduced its safe-haven appeal, with investors turning their focus to the upcoming U.S. non-farm payrolls report.
Spot gold was down 1.6% at $3,235.55 an ounce as of 0629 GMT, after hitting its lowest level since mid-April.
Oil prices held steady on Thursday, stabilizing after a sharp drop sparked by signs Saudi Arabia could boost production and data showing a U.S. economic contraction, raising concerns about future demand.
Brent crude futures fell 6 cents, or 0.1%, to $61 a barrel as at 0730 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 12 cents or 0.2%, to $58.09. WTI closed at its lowest since March 2021 on Wednesday.