Posted at 30 April 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr): 62K, 114K forecast, 147K previous
• US Core PCE Prices (Q1): 3.50%, 3.10% forecast, 2.60% previous
• US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q1): 1.20%, 0.80% previous
• US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q1): 0.9%, 0.9% previous
• US Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q1): 0.80%, 1.00% previous
• US GDP (QoQ) (Q1): -0.3%, 0.2% forecast, 2.4% previous
• US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1): 3.7%, 3.1% forecast, 2.3% previous
• US GDP Sales (Q1): -2.5%, 3.3% previous
• US PCE Prices (Q1): 3.6%, 2.4% previous
• US Real Consumer Spending (Q1): 1.8%, 1.2% forecast, 4.0% previous
•Canada GDP (MoM) (Feb): -0.2%, 0.0% forecast, 0.4% previous
•Canada GDP (MoM) (Mar): 0.1%, -0.2% previous
• US Chicago PMI (Apr): 44.6, 45.9 forecast, 47.6 previous
• US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar): 0.0%, 0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
• US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Mar): 2.6%, 2.6% forecast, 3.0% previous
• US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Mar): 2.3%, 2.2% forecast, 2.7% previous
• US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar): 0.0%, 0.0% forecast, 0.4% previous
• US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar): 6.1%, 0.9% forecast, 2.1% previous
• US Pending Home Sales Index (Mar): 76.5, 72.1 previous
• US Personal Income (MoM) (Mar): 0.5%, 0.4% forecast, 0.7% previous
• US Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar): 0.7%, 0.6% forecast, 0.5% previous
• US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Mar): 0.7%, 0.1% previous
• US Crude Oil Inventories: -2.696M, 0.390M forecast, 0.244M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 01:30 Australia Export Price Index (QoQ) (Q1): 3.6% previous
• 01:30 Australia Exports (MoM) (Mar): -3.6% previous
• 01:30 Australia Import Price Index (QoQ) (Q1): 0.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 01:30 Australia Imports (MoM) (Mar): 1.6% previous
• 01:30 Australia Trade Balance (Mar): 3.230B forecast, 2.968B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 02:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
• 03:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.50% forecast, 0.50% previous
• 05:00 Japan Household Confidence (Apr) 33.9 forecast, 34.1 previous
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro fell on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar gained strength, buoyed by month-end rebalancing flows and investor anticipation of upcoming tariffs, which overshadowed weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data. The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter, primarily due to a surge in imports ahead of expected tariff hikes. President Donald Trump attributed the downturn to policies under his predecessor, Joe Biden, while defending his tariff strategy as a path to economic resurgence. Meanwhile, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index was flat month-over-month, but consumer spending came in stronger than forecast. Market attention now turns to Friday’s U.S. jobs report, a key release that could influence the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of rose 0.51% to 99.68, with the euro down 0.58% at $1.132. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1425 (April 28th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1546 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1320 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1148 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling dipped on Wednesday as traders engaged in month-end profit-taking, while slightly lower gilt yields added pressure following a drop in U.K. house prices for April. U.K. house prices fell by 0.6% in April, marking the largest monthly drop in over 18 months and surprising markets with a sharper-than-expected decline, according to data from Nationwide. The fall, which followed a flat reading in March, was the first monthly drop since August 2024 and matched the steepest drop since August 2023. The decline came as a temporary stamp duty discount ended, weighing on property demand. On an annual basis, prices were up 3.4%, down from March’s 3.9% increase and below the 4.1% rise forecast by economists .The combination of soft housing data and easing yields weighed on the pound. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3461(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3572(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3374 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3256 (38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar climbed to a six-month high against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, marking its strongest monthly gain in a decade, supported by easing global trade tensions and a resolution to domestic political uncertainty. U.S. President Donald Trump said Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is seeking a trade deal and will visit the White House within the next week. Carney’s election victory, which removed political uncertainty, was welcomed by markets as he is seen as a known figure in global commerce. Earlier this month, Trump paused part of his tariff campaign against global partners while raising duties on Chinese imports. Meanwhile, Canadian GDP declined by 0.2% in February, driven by a contraction in goods-producing sectors. However, a preliminary 0.1% gain was reported for March, with Q1 growth estimated at an annualized 1.5%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3856 (April 30th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3934 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3778(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3627(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied against yen on Wednesday as traders keenly await BoJ policy decision. The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain interest rates on Thursday, citing growing risks to the fragile economy, with U.S. tariffs continuing to affect confidence. Trump’s fluctuating tariffs have shaken financial markets, prompting policymakers, including those from Japan, to seek concessions from Washington. At its two-day meeting ending Thursday, the BOJ is widely expected to keep short-term interest rates steady at 0.5%. Markets are also closely watching Ueda's post-meeting news conference for clues on how U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs would affect the BOJ's rate-hike path. The BOJ may also prefer not to sound too pessimistic on the outlook as doing so may dampen already waning market expectations of near-term rate hikes, thereby triggering renewed and unwelcome yen declines Immediate resistance can be seen at 143.11 (50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 141. 76 (38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 140. 13 (23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks reversed earlier losses to close higher on Wednesday, as investors weighed weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.32 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.32 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.50 percent.
U.S. stocks staged a late-session rebound on Wednesday, while oil prices posted their steepest monthly drop in 3.5 years, as investors reacted to news of the first U.S. economic contraction since 2022.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.35 % percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.15% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.09% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices pared some losses on Wednesday as bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates rose after weaker-than-expected first quarter U.S. growth.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $3,308.32 an ounce at 1:58 a.m. ET (1758 GMT), but was on track to log its fourth consecutive monthly gain, up almost 6% so far in April.
Oil prices fell on Wednesday, marking their biggest monthly decline in nearly three and a half years, as Saudi Arabia signaled plans to boost production and expand market share, while escalating global trade tensions dampened the outlook for fuel demand.
Brent crude futures settled $1.13, or 1.76%, lower at $63.12 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped $2.21, or 3.66%, to close at $58.21, the lowest settlement since March 2021.