Posted at 28 April 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) 3.6%, 3.6% previous
• Spanish Unemployment Rate (Q1) 11.36%, 10.70% forecast, 10.61%previous
• Italian 12-Month BOT Auction 2.069%,2.120% previous
• Italian 6-Month BOT Auction 2.069%, 2.268% previous
•UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Apr) -8,-21forecast,-41 previous
• France Jobseekers Total (Mar) 3,189.0K, 3,229.0K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.3% previous
• 13: 00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 1.893% previous
• 13: 00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.121% previous
• 13: 00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.027% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Event Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped on Monday as investors cautiously awaited updates on U.S. trade policy and prepared for a week of economic data that could provide the first signs of whether President Donald Trump's trade war is taking a toll. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Sunday that he hasn’t discussed tariffs with Chinese officials and is unsure if President Trump spoke with Xi Jinping. China has denied Trump’s claims of ongoing tariff talks. However, on Friday, China exempted some U.S. goods from its 125% tariffs, signaling concerns over the trade war’s impact. Investors await inflation reports from the euro zone and the United States, scheduled for release later in the week. The monthly U.S. employment report is expected on Friday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1438(April 23rd high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1520(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1322(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1141(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound steadied on Monday as investors awaited updates on U.S. trade policy and key economic data this week.Key data releases include U.S. job openings on Tuesday, Personal Consumption Expenditures on Wednesday, and non-farm payrolls on Friday.On Friday, British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to discuss a potential trade deal, while emphasizing that improving ties with the EU is arguably more important.The British government, with a more trade-dependent economy than most G20 nations, is negotiating a new economic deal with Washington to avoid reciprocal U.S. tariffs.Markets are anticipating a 96% likelihood that the Bank of England will lower interest rates by 25 basis points during its May 8 meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3395(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3521(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3282(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3066(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian steadied on Monday as investors focus turned to Australian CPI data and election outcome. Australia is set to release quarterly inflation data on Wednesday, which could solidify the case for a rate cut in May. Analysts expect a 0.8% rise in CPI for the quarter, lowering annual inflation to 2.3%, while core inflation is seen up 0.7%, bringing the annual rate down to 2.9% back within the RBA’s target range for the first time since late 2021.Australia’s election campaign enters its final stretch ahead of the May 3 vote, with PM Anthony Albanese leading polls and ramping up cost-of-living relief. At GMT 06:07, the Australian dollar was trading lower 0. 10% at 0.6404 against US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6408 ( Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6438 (23. 6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6358 (38.2%fib) , a break below could take the pair towards 0.6297 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower on Monday as confusion over U.S. trade policy showed little sign of easing. The Bank of Japan meets this week, the central bank is expected to keep rates at 0.5% due to economic and trade uncertainty from U.S. tariffs. Despite growing overseas risks, the BOJ is likely to avoid sounding too dovish, as domestic inflationary pressures rise. In April, core inflation in Tokyo hit a two-year high, driven by rising food prices, signaling broader national trends. Trump’s fluctuating tariffs have disrupted financial markets, prompting policymakers, including those from Japan, to seek concessions from Washington. Immediate resistance can be seen at 143.72 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.54(April 11th high) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 140.61 (23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 140.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed on Monday, extending two weeks of gains, as investors focused on potential tariff developments and a week packed with earnings and economic data.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0. 20 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0. 57 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.84 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices remained steady on Monday as investors weighed uncertainty over U.S.-China trade talks, which clouded the outlook for global growth and fuel demand, along with the possibility of OPEC+ increasing supply.
Brent crude futures were down 15 cents, or 0.22%, at $66.72 a barrel, as of 1204 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude shed 16 cents, or 0.25%, to $62.86 a barrel.
Gold prices dropped over 1% on Monday as the dollar remained strong and hopes for de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions reduced demand for safe-haven assets.
Spot gold was down 0.9% at $3,289.97 an ounce as of 0843 GMT. U.S. gold futures eased 0.1% to $3,301.