Posted at 28 April 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Dollar steadies, set for heavy monthly fall
•US jobs data, GDP in focus; Eurozone CPI readings
•Traders confused by mixed signals on U.S.-China trade relations
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• Italian 12-Month BOT Auction 2.120% previous
• Italian 6-Month BOT Auction 2.268% previous
•UK CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Apr) -21forecast,-41 previous
• France Jobseekers Total (Mar) 3,229.0K previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Event Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped on Monday as the dollar strengthened as investors cautiously awaited updates on U.S. trade policy and prepared for a week of economic data that could provide the first signs of whether President Donald Trump's trade war is taking a toll. Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have suggested they may cut rates if risks to growth materialize. However, most are inclined to first assess the impact of Trump's tariffs on key economic indicators like inflation and employment before taking action. This week's consumer price data for Germany and the euro zone is anticipated to reveal a continued decline in headline inflation, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank will implement another rate cut at its June meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1438(April 23rd high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1520(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1322(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1141(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped on Monday as the U.S. dollar strengthened as confusion over U.S. trade policy showed little sign of easing in a week packed with major economic data. Key data releases this week include the U.S. job openings report on Tuesday, Personal Consumption Expenditures on Wednesday and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday. These may provide more insight into the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.Payrolls are seen rising 135,000 and inflation is expected to ease, but there is much more uncertainty about GDP given a surge in gold imports will bias the headline number lower. At the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings, several participants pointed out that the Trump administration was still uncertain in its demands from trading partners impacted by the wide-ranging tariffs. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3395(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3521(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3282(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3066(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian steadied on Monday as investors focus turned to Australian CPI data and election outcome. Australia is set to release quarterly inflation data on Wednesday, which could solidify the case for a rate cut in May. Analysts expect a 0.8% rise in CPI for the quarter, lowering annual inflation to 2.3%, while core inflation is seen up 0.7%, bringing the annual rate down to 2.9% back within the RBA’s target range for the first time since late 2021.Australia’s election campaign enters its final stretch ahead of the May 3 vote, with PM Anthony Albanese leading polls and ramping up cost-of-living relief. At GMT 06:07, the Australian dollar was trading higher 0. 08% at 0.6400 against US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6408 ( Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6438 (23. 6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6358 (38.2%fib) , a break below could take the pair towards 0.6297 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar steadied around 143.75 on Monday as confusion over U.S. trade policy showed little sign of easing. The Bank of Japan meets this week, the central bank is expected to keep rates at 0.5% due to economic and trade uncertainty from U.S. tariffs. Despite growing overseas risks, the BOJ is likely to avoid sounding too dovish, as domestic inflationary pressures rise. In April, core inflation in Tokyo hit a two-year high, driven by rising food prices, signaling broader national trends. Trump’s fluctuating tariffs have disrupted financial markets, prompting policymakers, including those from Japan, to seek concessions from Washington. Immediate resistance can be seen at 143.72 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.54(April 11th high) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 140.61 (23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 140.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian shares saw small gains on Monday as uncertainty over U.S. trade policy continued ahead of a week filled with key economic data and tech earnings.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 0. 35% , South Korea's KOSPI was up 0. 10 %,Hang Seng was down by 0. 01%
Commodities Recap
Gold eased on Monday as easing U.S.-China trade tensions increased investor risk appetite, reducing demand for the safe-haven metal, while a stronger dollar added further pressure.
Spot gold fell 0.8% to $3,292.11 an ounce as of 0625 GMT. Bullion hit a record high of $3,500.05 on April 22.
Oil prices ticked up on Monday, but uncertainty over U.S.-China trade talks kept the outlook for global growth and fuel demand unclear, with the possibility of OPEC+ boosting supply adding to the gloom.
Brent crude futures were up 21 cents, or 0.3%, at $67.08 a barrel, as of 0742 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 24 cents, or 0.4%, to $63.26 a barrel.