Posted at 25 April 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.5%, -0.4% forecast, 0.7% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) 3.3%, 2.2% forecast, 1.8% previous
•UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.4%, -0.3% forecast,0.7% previous
• French Business Survey (Apr) 99, 96 forecast, 96 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:30 Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) -0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 12:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.0% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 12:30 Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) -0.4% forecast, -0.6% previous
• 14:00 US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Apr) 6.7% forecast, 5.0% previous
• 14:00 US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Apr) 4.4% forecast, 4.1% previous
• 14:00 US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Apr) 47.2 forecast, 52.6 previous
• 14:00 US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr) 50.8 forecast, 57.0 previous
• 14:00 US Michigan Current Conditions (Apr) 56.5 forecast, 63.8 previous
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (Feb) -5.13B previous
•15:00 Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (Feb) -26.85B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped on Friday as the dollar strengthened, boosted by signs of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump suggested a potential de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade war, claiming that direct talks were already underway to resolve the ongoing tariff standoff. However, Beijing quickly denied that any discussions had taken place. Earlier in the week, Trump had sent the dollar plunging as he threatened to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not implementing rate cuts aggressively enough. A spokesperson for China's commerce ministry said that if the U.S. truly wants to resolve the dispute, it should lift all unilateral tariff measures against China . The euro sank 0. 32% to $1.1351. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1438(April 23rd high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1520(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1322(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1141(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound weakened on Friday despite positive UK retail sales data, as the dollar strengthened on optimism over a potential U.S.-China trade truce. President Trump shared that his administration is actively engaged in talks with China to negotiate a potential tariff deal. He also mentioned that Chinese President Xi Jinping had personally reached out to him.The dollar marked its first weekly rise in over a month, fueled by growing confidence that the U.S. and China were poised to ease trade tensions. On the economic front, UK retail sales rose by 0.4% in March, following a revised 0.7% increase in February, according to the Office for National Statistics. Consumer spending showed resilience in March, with warmer weather boosting demand for clothing and non-food items, despite ongoing economic challenges. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3395(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3521(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3222(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3066(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped on Friday as greenback firmed on signs of easing in Sino-US trade tensions. Trump rattled currency markets at the week's open, sending the dollar plunging against major peers after he threatened to oust Fed Chair Jerome Powell over perceived slow rate cuts. Reports emerged on Friday that China is considering tariff exemptions for certain U.S. goods, fueling optimism for a potential thaw in the escalating trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Financial markets responded positively to the news, with the U.S. dollar gaining strength and global stock indices showing optimism despite ongoing tensions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6451( 23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6500(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6380(38.2%fib) , a break below could take the pair towards 0.6318(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar gained ground against the yen on Friday, supported by improving risk sentiment as traders reacted to potential shifts in the U.S. administration's stance toward China. Optimism grew following China's announcement of possible tariff exemptions on certain U.S. goods, raising hopes that the trade war could de-escalate and reignite global risk appetite. Despite no formal diplomatic progress, as the U.S. maintains its tariff policies, the mood in markets was lifted. On the economic front, Tokyo's core inflation hit a two-year high in April, driven by rising food prices. This added pressure on the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which faces the challenge of managing inflation risks while navigating ongoing global trade tensions ahead of its upcoming policy meeting. At GMT 11: 20, The dollar was last trading up 0. 46% to 143.36. Immediate resistance can be seen at 143.60 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.54(April 11th high) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 140. 53 (23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 140.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares headed for a second straight week of gains on Friday as investors took comfort from signs the U.S. and China were prepared to pull back from their trade war.
At GMT (12:22) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.11 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0. 60 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0. 40 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell over 1% on Friday and was on track for a weekly loss, as China's exemption of some U.S. goods from tariffs raised hopes of easing trade tensions.
Spot gold was down 1.5% at $3,296.19 an ounce as of 1136 GMT. It hit a record high earlier this week.
Oil prices fell on Friday, heading for a weekly decline of more than 2% due to concerns over oversupply and uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China tariff negotiations.
Brent crude futures fell 41 cents to $66.14 a barrel by 0953 GMT, falling 2.6% on the week.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 36 cents to $62.43 a barrel, having declined 3.5% for the week.