Posted at 25 April 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Japan CPI (YoY) (Apr) 2.0%, 1.1% previous
•Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) 3.4%, 3.2%forecast,2.4% previous
•Japan Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Apr) 3.5% ,2.9% previous
•Japan CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (Apr) 0.7%, 0.4% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.5%, -0.4% forecast, 0.7% previous
•UK Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) 3.3%, 2.2% forecast, 1.8% previous
•UK Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.4%, -0.3% forecast,0.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•06:45 French Business Survey (Apr) 96 forecast, 96 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•10:00 IMF Meetings
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped on Friday as the dollar strengthened, boosted by signs of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump suggested a potential de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade war, claiming that direct talks were already underway to resolve the ongoing tariff standoff. However, Beijing quickly denied that any discussions had taken place. Earlier in the week, Trump had sent the dollar plunging as he threatened to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not implementing rate cuts aggressively enough. A spokesperson for China's commerce ministry said that if the U.S. truly wants to resolve the dispute, it should lift all unilateral tariff measures against China . The euro sank 0.5% to $1.1327. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1438(April 23rd high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1520(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1322(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1141(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound dipped on Friday as the U.S. dollar strengthened, supported by growing optimism over a potential easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The tit-for-tat tariffs that started with U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of heavy import levies on April 2 had escalated tensions between the world’s two largest economies, raising fears of a trade standoff that could slow global growth. However, this week, the U.S. shifted its tone, acknowledging that the current situation was unsustainable. In response, China signaled it is reportedly considering exemptions for certain U.S. goods from its 125% tariffs. This shift in rhetoric is seen as a potential step toward easing the trade dispute. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3395(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3521(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3222(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3066(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped on Friday as greenback firmed on signs of easing in Sino-US trade tensions. Trump rattled currency markets at the week's open, sending the dollar plunging against major peers after he threatened to oust Fed Chair Jerome Powell over perceived slow rate cuts. Reports emerged on Friday that China is considering tariff exemptions for certain U.S. goods, fueling optimism for a potential thaw in the escalating trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Financial markets responded positively to the news, with the U.S. dollar gaining strength and global stock indices showing optimism despite ongoing tensions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6451( 23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6500(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6380(38.2%fib) , a break below could take the pair towards 0.6318(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Friday buoyed by improving risk sentiment as traders digested signals of a possible shift in the White House’s tone toward China. The recent Chinese announcement about possible tariff exemptions on certain U.S. goods helped fuel optimism that the trade war may be easing reigniting global risk appetite. This comes even in the absence of formal diplomatic progress, as the U.S. maintains its tariff stance. On the data front, core inflation in Tokyo rose to a two-year high in April on soaring food prices, adding pressure on the BOJ ahead of its upcoming policy meeting, as it navigates between inflation risks and global trade tensions. At GMT 07: 20, The dollar was last trading up 0. 46% to 143.28. Immediate resistance can be seen at 143.72 (38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.54(April 11th high) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 140.61 (23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 140.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks extended gains for a second week on Friday as a perceived easing in U.S. rhetoric toward China boosted investor sentiment, despite no concrete breakthrough in trade tensions.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 0.95% , South Korea's KOSPI was up 0. 95 %,Hang Seng was up by 0. 33%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped on Friday as China’s consideration of tariff suspensions on select U.S. goods reduced demand for the metal’s safe-haven appeal.
Spot gold fell 0.8% to $3,322.36 an ounce as of 0421 GMT. U.S. gold futures shed 0.5% to $3,332.90.
Oil prices gained for a second consecutive session on Friday, supported by optimism over a potential de-escalation in the U.S.-China trade war, which helped boost market sentiment
Brent crude futures gained 31 cents to $66.85 a barrel by 0650 GMT, falling 1.7% so far for the week.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 35 cents to $63.12 a barrel, having declined 2.4% for the week.