Posted at 18 April 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•EU Deposit Facility Rate (Apr) 2.25%, 2.25% forecast, 2.50% previous
•ECB Marginal Lending Facility 2.65%, 2.90% previous
• US Building Permits (MoM) (Mar) 1.6%, -1.0% previous
• US Building Permits (Mar) 1.482M, 1.450M forecast, 1.459M previous
• US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,885K, 1,870K forecast, 1,844K previous
• US Housing Starts (Mar) 1.324M, 1.420M forecast, 1.494M previous
• US Housing Starts (MoM) (Mar) -11.4%, 9.8% previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 215K, 225K forecast, 224K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 220.75K, 223.25K previous
• US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) -26.4, 2.2 forecast, 12.5 previous
• US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Apr) 6.9, 5.6 previous
• US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Apr) 2.00, 13.40 previous
• US Philly Fed Employment (Apr) 0.2, 19.7 previous
• US Philly Fed New Orders (Apr) -34.2, 8.7 previous
• US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Apr) 51.00, 48.30 previous
•Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (Feb) -6.46B, 12.89B forecast, 7.91B previous
•Canada Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Feb) 27.150B, -3.000B previous
•US 4-Week Bill Auction 4.240%, 4.245% previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction 4.235%, 4.235% previous
•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) -2.2% ,-2.2% forecast, -2.2% previous
•US Natural Gas Storage 16B ,24B forecast,57B previous
•US 5-Year TIPS Auction 1.702%, 2.121% previous
•US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 481, 480 previous
•US U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 585, 583 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•07:00 China FDI (Mar) -20.40% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower against the dollar on Thursday after European Central Bank cut interest rates as expected. The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%, marking its seventh reduction in the past year. The move aims to counter the negative impact of U.S. tariffs and weak business confidence on economic growth. While markets expect at least two more rate cuts this year, the ECB gave little indication of future moves, maintaining its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach. Lagarde remained tight-lipped about future ECB moves, stressing a meeting-by-meeting approach, though some colleagues noted that the bar for further cuts is low. Markets interpreted her comments on growth risks as a signal for more easing, pricing in two or three more rate cuts. However, Lagarde emphasized that the Governing Council would keep an open mind, with no clear dominance from either policy hawks or doves during Thursday's meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1387(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1478(April 11th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1267(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1191(38.2%fib).
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GBP/USD: The British pound held steady against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, supported by positive economic data over the past week that alleviated concerns about the UK economy amid U.S. tariff worries. Investors, wary of the impact of U.S. tariffs on growth and inflation, have shifted away from U.S. assets, including the dollar. Meanwhile, UK economic data indicated resilience, with growth holding up, inflation slowing, and strong wage growth despite a decline in job vacancies ahead of an employer tax increase this month. Alongside expectations of a potential U.S.-UK trade deal and a weaker dollar, the pound has gained. However, trading volumes and volatility were muted ahead of the Easter break, with UK markets closed on Friday and Monday. Sterling gained 0.2% to$1.3278 after hitting $1.3292 on Wednesday, the highest since October 2. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3280(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3366(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3211(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3106(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar reached a five-month high against the U.S. dollar as investors closely monitored trade negotiations in Washington. Markets were also monitoring negotiations between Japan and the United States that Trump lauded as productive, while Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was also headed to the White House for a meeting. The Bank of Canada held its benchmark rate at 2.75%, marking its first pause after seven consecutive cuts, citing uncertainty around U.S. tariffs. Meanwhile, oil prices rose by 3.5% to $64.63 per barrel, following new U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports, which raised supply concerns. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3847 per U.S. dollar after touching on Monday its strongest level since November 6 at 1.3827. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3908(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3975 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3832(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3743 (Lower BB)
USD/JPY:The dollar recovered from a seven-month low against the yen on Thursday as traders assessed the ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and Japan, although concerns over President Trump's tariff policies kept market sentiment fragile. Japan's economy minister Ryosei Akazawa clarified that foreign exchange issues were not discussed during the Washington trade talks. The U.S. dollar has faced pressure this month due to threats, impositions, and delays of major tariffs, which have cast doubt on U.S. economic growth and stability . Trading volumes have dwindled ahead of Good Friday, when most U.S. markets will close though foreign exchange will remain open. Data on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting labor market conditions remained stable in April. Immediate resistance can be seen at 142.85 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.00(Psychological level) On the downside, immediate support is seen at 141.76(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 140.63(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares ended slightly lower on Thursday after the ECB cut rates as expected, while mixed corporate earnings and U.S. trade policy concerns kept investors cautious.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.00 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.49 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.60 percent.
Wall Street ended mixed on Thursday, supported by gains in Eli Lilly and Apple, as investors balanced optimism over U.S.-Japan trade talks with uncertainty about future interest rates.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.33 %percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.13% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.13% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold slipped 0.8% to $3,315 per ounce, easing from record highs as safe-haven demand and dollar outflows temporarily slowed.
Oil prices jumped over 3% on Thursday, buoyed by hopes of a U.S.-EU trade deal and fresh U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, fueling supply concerns.
Brent crude futures settled $2.11, or 3.2%, higher to $67.96 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $2.21, or 3.54%, at $64.68 a barrel.