Posted at 17 April 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss Trade Balance (Mar) 6.350B, 5.220B forecast,4.741B previous
•German PPI (MoM) (Mar) -0.7%, -0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
•German PPI (YoY) (Mar) -0.2% , 0.4% forecast,0.5% previous
• French 6-Year OAT Auction 2.73%, 2.61% previous
• French 7-Year OAT Auction 2.98%, 3.10% previous
• Greek Current Account (YoY) (Feb) -2.490B ,1.017B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 12:15 Deposit Facility Rate (Apr) 2.25% forecast,2.50% previous
• 12:15 ECB Marginal Lending Facility 2.90% previous
• 12:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr) 2.40% forecast,2.65% previous
• 12:30 US Building Permits (MoM) (Mar) -1.0% previous
• 12:30 US Building Permits (Mar) 1.450M forecast, 1.459M previous
• 12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,870K forecast, 1,850K previous
• 12:30 US Housing Starts (Mar) 1.420M forecast, 1.501M previous
• 12:30 US Housing Starts (MoM) (Mar) 11.2% previous
• 12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 225K forecast, 223K previous
• 12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 223.00K previous
• 12:30 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr) 2.2 forecast, 12.5 previous
• 12:30 US Philly Fed Business Conditions (Apr) 5.6 previous
• 12:30 US Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Apr) 13.40 previous
• 12:30 US Philly Fed Employment (Apr) 19.7 previous
• 12:30 US Philly Fed New Orders (Apr) 8.7 previous
• 12:30 US Philly Fed Prices Paid (Apr) 48.30 previous
• 12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases (Feb) 12.89B forecast, 7.91B previous
• 12:30 Canada Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians (Feb) -3.150B previous
•14:30 USD Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) -2.2% forecast, -2.2% previous
•14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 24B forecast, 57B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:15 ECB Press Conference
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro weakened against the dollar on Thursday as investors awaited the ECB meeting. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates for the seventh time this year, aiming to support a struggling economy already impacted by U.S. tariffs. The ECB has been actively lowering borrowing costs as inflationary pressures subside, and recent global market volatility may reinforce the bank's view that inflation in the eurozone is under control, further supporting the case for continued easing. Although the rate cut is widely anticipated, investors will closely watch ECB President Lagarde's 12:45 GMT press conference for clues on future policy direction. Key points of focus will include whether the ECB maintains its stance on rates being restrictive, signaling more potential easing ahead. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1387(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1478(April 11th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1267(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1191(38.2%fib).
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GBP/USD: The British pound dipped against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as investors took profits after gains fueled by tariff concerns. The recent rally in the pound was supported by expectations of a U.S.-UK trade deal, a weaker dollar, and steady UK economic performance. With no major UK economic data or Bank of England events scheduled ahead of the Easter long weekend, Sterling is expected to be influenced by external factors. UK economic data has shown consistent growth, a slowdown in inflation, and strong wage growth, despite a decline in job vacancies ahead of a planned employer tax increase. Trading volumes and volatility were muted ahead of the extended Easter break, with UK markets closed on Friday and Monday. At GMT 11:15, the British pound was trading lower 0.10% at 1.3229 against US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3265(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3366(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3168(April 15th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3107(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Thursday as the U.S. dollar gained strength following strong retail sales data. U.S. retail sales rose by 1.4% in March, marking the largest increase since January 2023. Meanwhile, Australia's employment data for March showed an increase of 32.2k jobs, falling slightly short of the 40k forecast. The jobless rate ticked up to 4.1% from 4.0%, but remained better than the anticipated 4.2%, consistent with the range it has been at for the past year. Trade developments, especially between the U.S. and China, continue to be a key factor in shaping market sentiment going forward. At GMT 11:49, the Australian dollar was trading lower 0.15 % at $0.6362 against US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6372(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards (Feb 21st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6324(April 16th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6286(50%fib).
USD/JPY:The dollar rebounded from a seven-month low against the yen on Thursday as traders assessed the ongoing trade talks between the U.S. and Japan, although concerns over President Trump's tariff policies kept market sentiment fragile. The U.S. dollar has faced pressure this month due to threats, impositions, and delays of major tariffs, which have cast doubt on U.S. economic growth and stability. The dollar had dropped to a low of 141.62 yen earlier in Asia trading but recovered to 142.61 after Japan's economy minister Ryosei Akazawa clarified that foreign exchange issues were not discussed during the Washington trade talks. The yen had strengthened ahead of the meetings, as investors speculated that the two countries might reach an agreement to bolster the yen against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 142.85 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.00(Psychological level) On the downside, immediate support is seen at 141.76(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 140.63(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares dropped on Thursday as investors analyzed corporate earnings to assess the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policies, while also awaiting the European Central Bank's policy decision later in the day.
At GMT (12:16) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.72 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.72 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.93 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices retreated from a record high on Thursday as investors took profits after a rally fueled by concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariff policies.
Spot gold was down 0.3% at $3,331.73 an ounce, as of 1120 GMT, after touching a record $3,357.40 earlier in the session. Bullion has gained nearly 3% this week.
Oil prices climbed to a two-week high on Thursday after the U.S. imposed new sanctions to limit Iranian oil exports, heightening concerns over supply.
Brent crude futures rose 47 cents, or 0.71%, to $66.32 a barrel by 1116 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $63.02 a barrel, up 55 cents, or 0.9%.