Posted at 16 April 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• China House Prices (YoY) (Mar) -4.5%, -4.8% previous
• China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Mar) 4.2%, 4.1% forecast, 4.1% previous
• China GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 1.2%, 1.4% forecast, 1.6% previous
• China GDP (YoY) (Q1) 5.4%, 5.2% forecast, 5.4% previous
• China Chinese GDP YTD (YoY) (Q1) 5.4%, 5.0% previous
• China Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) 7.7%, 5.9% forecast, 5.9% previous
• China Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Mar) 6.5%, 5.9% previous
• China Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) 5.9%, 4.2% forecast, 4.0% previous
• China Chinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (Mar) 3.61%, 2.98% previous
• China Chinese Unemployment Rate (Mar) 5.2%, 5.3% forecast, 5.4% previous
•UK Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.4% previous
•UK Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) 3.4%, 3.4% forecast, 3.5% previous
•UK Core RPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.8%, 3.0% previous
•UK Core RPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.3%, 0.6% previous
•UK CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
•UK CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.6%, 2.7% forecast, 2.8% previous
•UK CPI, n.s.a (Mar) 136.50, 136.00 previous
•UK RPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
•UK RPI (YoY) (Mar) 3.2%, 3.2% forecast, 3.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:00 Italian CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.4% forecast, 0.2% previous
•08:00 Italian CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.0% forecast, 1.6% previous
•08:00 Italian CPI Ex Tobacco (YoY) (Mar) 1.5% previous
•08:00 Italian HICP (MoM) (Mar) 1.6% forecast, 0.1% previous
•08:00 Italian HICP (YoY) (Mar) 2.1% forecast, 1.7% previous
•08:00 EU Current Account (Feb) 37.3B forecast, 35.4B previous
•08:00 EU Current Account n.s.a. (Feb) 13.2B previous
•08:30 UK House Price Index (YoY) 5.1% forecast, 4.9% previous
•09:00 EU Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) 1.0% forecast, 0.5% previous
•09:00 EU Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.4% forecast, 2.6% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.2% forecast, 2.3% previous
•09:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.6% forecast, 0.4% previous
•09:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Mar) 2.2% previous
•09:00 EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Mar) 0.4% previous
•09:00 EU CPI, n.s.a (Mar) 128.04 forecast, 127.26 previous
•09:00 EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Mar) 2.4% forecast, 2.6% previous
•09:00 EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Mar) 0.8% forecast, 0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro hovered near a three-year higher on Tuesday as markets stabilized to wait for progress on U.S. trade talks.. President Donald Trump ordered a probe into potential new tariffs on all U.S. critical minerals imports, on top of reviews into pharmaceutical and chip imports. Beijing is continuing to play hardball, having reportedly ordered airlines to suspend deliveries of Boeing aircraft. Trump has ratcheted up tariffs on Chinese goods to eye-watering levels, prompting Beijing to slap retaliatory duties on U.S. imports. The White House said Trump is open to making a trade deal with China but Beijing should make the first move. The euro was last trading at $1.1361. It is up more than 4.5% this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1387(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1478(April 11th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1267(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1191(38.2%fib).
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GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as optimism of trade deal between UK and US boosted Sterling. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said a strong trade deal between the U.S. and U.K. is likely, driven by former President Trump’s fondness for Britain and its royal family. Though the U.K. escaped the toughest tariffs, its exports still face a 10% duty, with steel and car imports hit with 25%. Officials from both nations have been in talks for weeks, initially centered on enhancing cooperation in artificial intelligence and technology, with the potential to expand to include food and other goods. On the data front, British inflation eased to its lowest in three months in March. The annual inflation rate dropped to 2.6% from 2.8% in February, falling below the expected 2.7%, according to official data from the Office for National Statistics. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1387(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3322(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3211(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3089(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar strengthened on Wednesday as upbeat economic data from China provided support to Australian dollar. Data released on Wednesday showed that China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the January–March quarter, the same pace as the fourth quarter, but surpassing analysts' forecast of 5.1%.Retail sales, a key indicator of consumption, rose 5.9% year-on-year in March, up from 4.0% in January-February, while factory output accelerated to 7.7% from 5.9% in the same period. The Reserve Bank of Australia skipped a rate cut this month, but markets have fully priced in a 25 basis point reduction to 3.85% in May. Australia’s consumer price report, due next week, is expected to show core inflation (trimmed mean) easing to 2.8% from 3.2%, bringing it back within the RBA’s target range of 2–3% for the first time since late 2021. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6386(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6412(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6320(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6250(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against Japanese yen on Wednesday as rising trade tensions and fears about global economic growth boosted demand for the safe-haven yen. Trump has sharply raised tariffs on Chinese goods, prompting Beijing to impose retaliatory duties on U.S. imports. In a further sign of rising tensions, China ordered its airlines not to take further deliveries of Boeing planes in response to the U.S. decision to impose 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. Investors have shifted toward safe-haven assets since the U.S. announced reciprocal tariffs, putting pressure on the dollar and lifting demand for currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. Looking ahead, investors are awaiting U.S. retail sales data later today for insights into the economy and the Federal Reserve's future policy direction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 143.13 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.46(38.2%fib) On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.00(Psychological level)a break below could take the pair towards 140.63(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian shares dipped on Wednesday as Nvidia faced pressure from new U.S. restrictions on chip sales to China, signaling potential fallout from an escalating global trade war.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 1.03% , South Korea's KOSPI was up 1.21 %,Hang Seng was up by 1.83%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices slipped around 1% on Wednesday as changing U.S. tariff policies heightened uncertainty, leading traders to assess the potential impact of the U.S.-China trade war on global growth and energy demand.
Brent crude futures fell 66 cents, or 1.0%, to $64.01 per barrel by 0630 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 69 cents, or 1.1%, to $60.64. Both benchmarks fell 0.3% on Tuesday.
Gold hit a record high on Wednesday as safe-haven demand surged, driven by a weaker dollar, rising trade tensions, and worries over global economic growth.
Spot gold rose 1.9% to $3,287.79 an ounce, as of 0648 GMT. It hit an all-time high of $3,294.99 per ounce earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures gained nearly 2% to $3,304.20.