Posted at 16 April 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.5%, 0.5% forecast, 0.4% previous
•UK Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) 3.4%, 3.4% forecast, 3.5% previous
•UK Core RPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.8%, 3.0% previous
•UK Core RPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.3%, 0.6% previous
•UK CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 0.4% previous
•UK CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.6%, 2.7% forecast, 2.8% previous
•UK CPI, n.s.a (Mar) 136.50, 136.00 previous
•UK RPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 0.6% previous
•UK RPI (YoY) (Mar) 3.2%, 3.2% forecast, 3.4% previous
•EU Core CPI (MoM) (Mar) 1.0%, 1.0% forecast, 0.5% previous
•EU Core CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.4%, 2.4% forecast, 2.6% previous
•EU CPI (MoM) (Mar) 0.6%, 0.6% forecast, 0.4% previous
•EU CPI (YoY) (Mar) 2.2%, 2.2% forecast, 2.3% previous
•EU CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) (Mar) 2.1%, 2.2% previous
•EU CPI ex Tobacco (MoM) (Mar) 0.6%, 0.4% previous
•EU CPI, n.s.a (Mar) 128.04, 127.26 previous
•EU HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Mar) 2.5%, 2.4% forecast, 2.6% previous
•EU HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Mar) 0.8%, 0.8% forecast, 0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.4% forecast, 0.3% previous
•12:30 US Retail Control (MoM) (Mar) 0.6% forecast, 1.0% previous
•12:30 US Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) 3.11% previous
•12:30 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 1.3% forecast, 0.2% previous
•12:30 US Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Mar) 0.5% previous
•12:30 US Capacity Utilization Rate (Mar) 78.0% forecast, 78.2% previous
•12:30 US Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) 1.44% previous
•12:30 US Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) -0.2% forecast, 0.7% previous
•12:30 US Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar) 0.3% forecast, 0.9% previous
•14:00 US Business Inventories (MoM) (Feb) 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•14:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index (Apr) 38 forecast, 39 previous
•14:00 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Feb) 0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 0.400M forecast, 2.553M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:45 Canada BoC Monetary Policy Report
•13:45 Canada BoC Rate Statement
•14:30 Canada BOC Press Conference
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Wednesday as dollar resumed its descent as a new bout of tariff-induced nerves gripped markets. The dollar has been significantly affected by waning confidence in the United States, as drastic tariff measures have been threatened, implemented, and partially delayed during a tumultuous period for global trade and markets. Although the dollar briefly regained ground earlier this week, posting minor gains on Tuesday, by Wednesday, European trading saw the U.S. currency retreating toward last week's lows. These latest concerns stem from the U.S. imposing restrictions on chip exports to China and President Donald Trump's initiation of a probe into potential tariffs on critical minerals. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1387(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1478(April 11th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1267(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1191(38.2%fib).
.GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as growing uncertainty around U.S. trade policy weighed on the dollar.Trump’s tariff moves have unsettled investors this month, raising fears that the blow to global growth could spark a recession.On the data front, UK inflation cooled in March to its lowest in three months but, rising household bills and employer costs may soon revive price pressures amid Trump’s ongoing trade war.UK inflation eased to 2.6% in March from 2.8% in February, coming in below the BoE’s 2.7% forecast.Traders expect the BoE to cut rates three times in 2024, lowering them to 3.60% by year-end, a level last seen in January 2023.At GMT 12:20, the British pound last up 0.3% on the day at $1.3270 , close it its highest in six months against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1387(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3322(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3211(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3089(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened on Wednesday, supported by positive economic data from China and a weaker U.S. dollar. Data released on Wednesday revealed that China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the January–March quarter, matching the growth rate of the fourth quarter and exceeding analysts' expectations of 5.1%. Retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, rose 5.9% year-on-year in March, up from 4.0% in January-February, while factory output accelerated to 7.7%, compared to 5.9% in the same period. Although the Reserve Bank of Australia opted not to cut rates this month, markets have priced in a 25 basis point reduction to 3.85% in May. Australia's upcoming consumer price report, due next week, is expected to show core inflation (trimmed mean) easing to 2.8% from 3.2%, bringing it back within the RBA’s target range of 2–3% for the first time since late 2021. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6386(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6412(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6320(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6250(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the Japanese yen on Wednesday as escalating trade tensions and concerns over global economic growth heightened demand for the safe-haven yen. President Trump’s sharp increase in tariffs on Chinese goods prompted retaliatory measures from Beijing, including duties on U.S. imports. In a further sign of rising tensions, China instructed its airlines to halt further deliveries of Boeing planes in response to the U.S. decision to impose a 145% tariff on Chinese goods. Looking ahead, market participants are awaiting U.S. retail sales data later today for clues on the health of the economy and the Federal Reserve's future policy direction. Additionally, traders are closely monitoring talks between Japan's economy minister, Ryosei Akazawa, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, with speculation growing that the two countries might agree on a stronger yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 143.13 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.46(38.2%fib) On the downside, immediate support is seen at 142.00(Psychological level)a break below could take the pair towards 140.63(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares declined on Wednesday, mirroring the drop in U.S. stock futures, as AI powerhouse Nvidia suffered from U.S. restrictions on chip sales to China, exacerbating tensions in the global trade war.
At GMT (12:20) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.20 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.17 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.42 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices surged past the $3,300 mark for the first time on Wednesday, as investors flocked to safe-haven assets following President Donald Trump's directive to launch a probe into potential new tariffs on critical mineral imports into the U.S.
Spot gold was up 2.2% to $3,299.85 an ounce as of 1107 GMT, after hitting a record high of $3,317.90 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures gained 2.3% to $3,315.80.
Oil gained 1% on Wednesday, recovering from initial declines after signs of a conciliatory tone from China on trade discussions with the U.S. lifted sentiment
Brent crude futures rose 63 cents, or 1%, to $65.30 a barrel by 1225 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 59 cents, also 1%, at $61.92.