Posted at 17 April 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia Employment Change (Mar) 32.2K, 39.8K forecast,-57.5Kprevious
• Australia Full Employment Change (Mar) 15.0K , -43.9Kprevious
• Australia NAB Quarterly Business Confidence -4, -5 previous
• Australia Participation Rate (Mar) 66.8% ,67.0% forecast,-66.7% previous
• Australia Reserve Assets Total (Mar) 104.5B , 103.7B previous
• Australia Unemployment Rate (Mar) 4.1%, 4.2% forecast, 4.0% previous
•Swiss Trade Balance (Mar) 6.350B, 5.220B forecast, 4.741B previous
•German PPI (YoY) (Mar) -0.2% ,0.4% forecast, 0.5% previous
•German PPI (MoM) (Mar) -0.7%, -0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•09:00 French 6-Year OAT Auction - 2.61% previous
•09:00 French 7-Year OAT Auction - 3.10% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro hovered near a three-year high on Thursday as markets remained cautious ahead of the ECB rate decision. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates for the seventh time this year on Thursday, aiming to support an already struggling economy, which faces additional challenges from U.S. tariffs. The ECB has been aggressively lowering borrowing costs as inflationary pressures ease, and recent global market turmoil may strengthen the bank's view that inflation in the eurozone is under control, further supporting the case for continued policy easing. Although the rate cut is fully anticipated, investors will closely analyze ECB President Lagarde's comments during the 12:45 GMT press conference for hints about future policy direction. Key points of interest will include whether the ECB continues to describe rates as restrictive, a signal that more easing could be on the way . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1387(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1478(April 11th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1267(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1191(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as markets awaited updates on U.S. tariff developments. . In a further escalation of his trade tensions with global partners, U.S. President Donald Trump initiated a probe on Tuesday to explore potential new tariffs on all critical mineral imports, adding to ongoing reviews of pharmaceutical and chip imports. Meanwhile, Beijing has instructed airlines to halt further deliveries of Boeing aircraft, marking another significant move in the trade standoff. Since Trump's April 2 tariff announcement, market has endured some of their most volatile trading since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic five years ago. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3265(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3366(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3168(April 15th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3107(38.2%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped lower on Thursday as the greenback strengthened on the back of strong U.S. retail sales data. Wednesday’s data showed that U.S. retail sales rose by 1.4% last month, marking the largest increase since January 2023.Australia's employment data for March showed no significant surprises. March employment increased by 32.2k jobs, slightly missing the estimate of 40.0k jobs.Trade war developments between the U.S. and its trading partners, particularly China, remain crucial in determining future market sentiment. The jobless rate ticked up to 4.1%, from 4.0%, but was still under forecasts of 4.2%, and similar to where it has been for the past year. At GMT 05:36, the Australian dollar was trading lower 0.53 % at $0.6337 against US dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6372(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards (Feb 21st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6324(April 16th low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6286(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar recovered from a seven-month low against the yen on Thursday as traders took stock of trade negotiations between the U.S. and Japan even as uncertainties around tariffs implemented by President Donald Trump kept sentiment fragile. The dollar has taken a beating this month as the U.S. has threatened, imposed and then postponed massive tariffs, undermining confidence in U.S. economic growth and stability. The dollar touched a seven-month low of 141.62 yen early in Asia trade before bouncing back to 142.61 after Japan's economy minister Ryosei Akazawa said foreign exchange had not been discussed at the trade talks in Washington. The yen had gained into the meetings in anticipation the countries could agree to strengthen the yen against the dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 142.85 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 144.00(Psychological level) On the downside, immediate support is seen at 141.76(23.6%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 140.63(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks edged up on Thursday, led by South Korea stocks, despite lingering U.S. tariff worries and slowdown fears.
Japan's Nikkei 225 was up 1.35% , South Korea's KOSPI was up 0.94 %,Hang Seng was up by 1.51%
Commodities Recap
Gold edged lower on Thursday as investors took profits following a surge to an all-time high earlier in the session.
Spot gold shed 0.1% to $3,338.81 an ounce, as of 0436 GMT, after touching a record high of $3,357.40 earlier in the session. Bullion has gained more than 3% so far this week.
Oil prices climbed on Thursday as U.S. sanctions on Iran and extra output cuts by some OPEC members fueled supply concerns.
Brent crude futures rose 56 cents, or 0.85%, to $66.41 a barrel by 0625 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $63.12 a barrel, up 65 cents, or 1.04%.