Posted at 12 March 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Sweden Unemployment Rate (Feb) 7.2%, 7.2% previous
•Finnish Current Account (Jan) 0.20B,0.90B previous
•Spanish Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) 2.2%,4.0% previous
•UK 10-Year Treasury Gilt Auction 4.679%, 4.808% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) 3.2% forecast, 3.3% previous
•12:30 US Core CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
•12:30 US Core CPI Index (Feb) 324.74 previous
•12:30 US CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.3% forecast, 0.5% previous
•12:30 US CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.9% forecast, 3.0% previous
•12:30 US CPI Index, n.s.a. (Feb) 319.22 previous, 317.67 revised
•12:30 US CPI Index, s.a. (Feb) 319.09 previous
•12:30 US CPI, n.s.a. (MoM) (Feb) 0.65% previous
•12:30 US Real Earnings (MoM) (Feb) -0.3% previous
•13:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.100M forecast, 3.614M previous
•13:30 USD EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) -0.346M
•13:30 USD Crude Oil Imports -0.054M previous
•13:30 USD Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 1.124M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•13:45 Canada BoC Rate Statements
•13:45 Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision 2.75% forecast,3.00% previous
•13:45 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
•14:30 Canada BOC Press Conferences
•15:15 ECB's Lane Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased after hitting a five-month peak of $1.0947 on Tuesday as Ukraine said it was ready to support Washington's proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia. The United States agreed on Tuesday to resume military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine after Kyiv expressed support for Washington's proposal of a 30-day ceasefire with Russia, according to a joint statement from both nations.Following over eight hours of talks with Ukrainian officials in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the U.S. would now present the offer to Russia, putting the next move in Moscow's hands. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated on Wednesday that Moscow will avoid compromises that endanger lives in any potential Ukraine peace deal, according to Russian news agencies.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0946 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0990(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0835(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0803(March 10th low).
GBP/USD: Sterling held steady against the dollar on Wednesday, staying below four-month highs reached in the previous session, as Britain refrained from retaliating against U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, avoiding a tit-for-tat trade dispute. Britain's government expressed disappointment on Wednesday over President Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports but chose not to follow the European Union in retaliating.Britain had hoped to secure an exemption from the tariffs, as its steel sector though small produces specialized products for defense and other industries. Last month, Trump suggested that a bilateral trade deal between the two nations could help avoid the tariffs.Sterling eased at $1.2939, following Tuesday's rally of 0.53% to $1.2947. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2980(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3050(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2875(March 11th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2811(38.2%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Wednesday as global trade war concerns affected investor sentiment.Domestic data remains limited, leaving global economic events, geopolitics, and trade developments as the primary market drivers. Against the U.S. dollar the typically risk-sensitive Australian dollar has been trading sideways while markets are caught between risk aversion, as U.S. stocks sink, and a weakening U.S. dollar driven by fears of a U.S. slowdown. Investors await U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due later in the day to analyse the Fed's interest rate stance going forward this year.At GMT 12:27, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.21% to $0.6283. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6324(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6406(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6266(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6192(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar firmed against the yen on Wednesday as traders digested tit-for-tat U.S.-EU tariffs and a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. President Donald Trump's unpredictable announcements on trade policy have whipsawed markets and drawn tariff retaliation from trading partners, ramping up a global trade war. Japan's annual wholesale inflation hit 4.0% in February, data showed on Wednesday, underscoring pressure from rising raw material costs that will keep alive market expectations of a near-term interest rate hike by the central bank. The data adds to growing signs of inflationary pressure, including from major Japanese firms offering bumper pay increases in this year's wage talks with unions.But the rise in living costs and market volatility caused by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats could weigh on Japan's economy and discourage the Bank of Japan from raising rates too quickly, some analysts say . Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.06(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.94(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.71(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 147.00(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares surged on Wednesday after four consecutive declines, boosted by Ukraine's acceptance of a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire with Russia.
At GMT (12:26) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.58percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.68 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.28 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held steady on Wednesday as markets awaited a key U.S. inflation report, while President Donald Trump's tariff policies continued to support the safe-haven asset.
Spot gold was steady at $2,915.66 an ounce as of 1148 GMT, after rising 1% in the previous session. U.S. gold futures were flat at $2,921.20.
Oil prices inched higher on Wednesday, supported by a weaker dollar, but gains were limited by growing fears of a U.S. economic slowdown and the impact of tariffs on global growth.
Brent futures rose 37 cents, or 0.53%, to $69.93 a barrel at 0951 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 37 cents, or 0.53%, to $66.62 a barrel.