Posted at 12 March 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• US Redbook (YoY) 5.7%, 6.6% previous
• US JOLTS Job Openings (Jan) 7.740M, 7.650M forecast,7.508M previous
• US 3-Year Note Auction 3.908%, 4.300% previous
• US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock 4.247M,2.100M forecast, -1.455M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro hit a five-month high on Tuesday after Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire proposal. Ukraine agreed to accept an immediate 30-day ceasefire in the conflict with Russia during talks with U.S. officials in Saudi Arabia. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he would now take the offer to the Russians, and that the ball is in Moscow's court.The European single currency had been trading at a months-long high since last week on expectations of increased defense spending in Germany, the continent's largest economy. The euro rose as high as $1.0947, a level last seen in October. It was last up 0.86% and has gained more than 5% this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0923 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0972(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0791(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0686(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as concerns over a potential U.S. recession prompted traders to shift away from the greenback. However, market sentiment remained cautious amid ongoing uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies and the broader outlook for global economic growth.From the UK perspective, investors are focusing on Friday’s monthly GDP report, which could provide insights into the country’s economic trajectory. Until then, analysts expect Sterling’s movement to be largely driven by external factors, particularly shifts in global risk sentiment and developments in U.S. economic policy. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and euro, was on track for its seventh straight loss. It fell 0.57% to 103.27. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2936(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3020(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2862(March 10th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2784(38.2%fib)
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar recovered from an earlier one-week low against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as American and Canadian officials agreed to meet to discuss a trade war that showed signs of heating up, and ahead of an expected interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada.U.S. President Donald Trump ramped up a burgeoning trade war with Canada, vowing to double tariffs set to take effect within hours on all imported steel and aluminum products from America's northern neighbor to 50%. Trump later said he would likely lower them after Ontario Premier Doug Ford agreed to suspend a surcharge on electricity the province supplies to U.S. homes and meet with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Thursday.Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States, and economists have said a trade war could push its economy into recession.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3624 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4714(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4352(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4130(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar regained some ground after an early drop on Tuesday as investors worried about a lack of clarity on tariffs.Despite the short- bounce, the broader market sentiment remains bearish. The tariff policies implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump against key trading partners have caused significant volatility in global markets and heightened concerns about economic growth. Tuesday's data showed U.S. small-business confidence dropped for a third straight month in February, wiping away much of the gains notched after Trump's November election victory. Investors were also anxiously awaiting the latest information on inflation conditions from the U.S. consumer price index reading for February, due on Wednesday. A high reading would add to last month's hotter-than-expected data, which included the biggest monthly price gain since August 2023. Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.32(38.2%fib)an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.61(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 146.48(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 145.60(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares fell to their lowest levels in over a month on Tuesday as concerns grew that U.S. trade policies could hurt economic growth.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 1.21 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 1.29 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.31 percent.
U.S. stocks declined on Tuesday, deepening the biggest selloff in months as investors grew increasingly concerned about the impact of new tariff threats on the global economy.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.14% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.756% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.18% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed 1% on Tuesday, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and concerns over a potential economic slowdown amid escalating tariff wars.
Spot gold was 1% firmer at $2,917.79 an ounce as of 01:16 p.m. ET (1716 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.7% higher at $2,920.90.
Oil prices closed slightly higher on Tuesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar that made crude more attractive to foreign buyers.
Brent crude futures settled 28 cents, or 0.4%, higher at $69.56 a barrel after falling as low as $68.63 in early trade. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $66.25 a barrel after previous declines as well.