Posted at 07 March 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• French Current Account (Jan) -2.20B, 2.60B previous
• French Exports (Jan) 49.8B, 52.2B previous
• French Imports (Jan) 56.4B, 55.7B previous
• French Reserve Assets Total (Feb) 295,984.0M,275,078.0M previous
• French Trade Balance (Jan) -6.5B,-4.1Bforecast,-3.5B previous
• Greek GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.90%, 0.40% previous
• Greek GDP (YoY) (Q4) 2.6% , 2.3% previous
• Greek Quarterly Unemployment Rate (Q4) 9.5%, 9.0% previous
•EU Employment Change (YoY) (Q4) 0.7%, 0.6% forecast, 1.0% previous
•EU Employment Change (QoQ) (Q4) 0.1%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
•EU Employment Overall (Q4) 169,435.3K, 169,345.0K forecast, 169,112.9K previous
•EU GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q4) 1.2%, 0.9% forecast, 0.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb) 0.3% forecast , 0.5% previous
•13:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Feb) 4.1% forecast, 4.1% previous
•13:30 US Average Weekly Hours (Feb) 34.2 forecast, 34.1 previous
•13:30 US Government Payrolls (Feb) 32.0K previous
•13:30 US Manufacturing Payrolls (Feb) 5K forecast, 3K previous
•13:30 US Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) 159K forecast, 143K previous
•13:30 US Participation Rate (Feb) , 62.6% previous
•13:30 US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) 142K, forecast, 111K previous
•13:30 US U6 Unemployment Rate (Feb) 7.5% previous
•13:30 US Unemployment Rate (Feb) 4.0%, forecast ,4.0% previous
•13:30 Canada Avg Hourly Wages Permanent Employee (Feb) 3.7% previous
•13:30 Canada Capacity Utilization Rate (Q4) 79.2% forecast, 79.3% previous
•13:30 Canada Employment Change (Feb) 19.7K forecast, 76.0K previous
•13:30 Canada Full Employment Change (Feb) 35.2K previous
•13:30 Canada Part-Time Employment Change (Feb) 40.9K previous
•13:30 Canada Participation Rate (Feb) 65.5% previous
•13:30 Canada Unemployment Rate (Feb) 6.7% forecast , 6.6% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•15:00 BoE MPC Member Mann
•15:15 US FOMC Member Bowmen Speaks
•15:45 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
•16:00 US Fed Monetary Policy Report
•17:20 US FOMC Member Kugler Speaks
•17:30 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro remained steady near a four-month high on Friday as the ECB's cautious approach to rate cuts and Germany's fiscal expansion plans boosted euro. The European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday cut interest rates again but warned of phenomenal uncertainty , including the risk that trade wars and more defence spending could fuel inflation, raising the prospect of a pause in its policy easing next month . The ECB on Thursday raised its inflation forecast to 2.3% this year for the euro zone, above the 2.1% seen three months ago. Measures of longer-term inflation in the euro zone have already surged from around 2.05% early this week to 2.24% by Thursday, an unusually large shift.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0878 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0902(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0772(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0657(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound remained steady on Friday as investors awaited the U.S. jobs report for insights into the US economy’s health. Following a week of mixed U.S. economic data, focus shifted to nonfarm payrolls, expected to show a 160,000 job increase after January’s 143,000 gain, with unemployment holding at 4.0%, according to a survey. Thursday’s data added to signs of a potential economic slowdown. On the data front, UK house prices unexpectedly declined 0.1% in February as buyer demand weakened ahead of the March 31 tax incentive deadline, Halifax reported Friday. This followed a revised 0.6% increase in January and fell short of all forecasts . January’s monthly and annual data were also revised slightly lower.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2920(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2949(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2777(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2672(50%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar retreated from a one-week high on Friday as investors awaited U.S. nonfarm payrolls data to assess signs of an economic slowdown. Financial markets were focused on a U.S. non-farm payrolls report and a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, due later in the day, which could provide more clarity on the outlook for interest rates in the world's biggest economy.Payrolls are expected to rise 160,000 in February, up from 143,000 in January, with the unemployment rate forecast to remain at 4.0%, a survey showed. At GMT 12:50, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.63% to $0.6292. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6358(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6418(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6290(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6222(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar weakened against the yen on Friday as Japanese yen continues to be underpinned by increasing bets for more BoJ rate hikes. The BOJ is widely expected to keep policy steady at the March 18-19 meeting, having just raised interest rates to 0.5% from 0.25% at their previous January meeting, with markets largely tipping the next hike in the third quarter. Focus for financial markets later in the day will be on the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, followed by a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which could provide more clarity on the outlook for rates in the world's biggest economy.The U.S. dollar index fell 0.21% to 103.97.Against the Japanese currency, the dollar was last down 0.26% at 147.59 yen . Immediate resistance can be seen at 148.08(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.77(38.2%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.40(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.08(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares dropped sharply on Friday as U.S. trade policy uncertainty fueled risk aversion, while investors awaited key U.S. jobs data..
At GMT (12:58) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.46 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 2.00 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 1.10 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Friday, set for their best week in six, as trade war concerns and a weaker dollar lifted demand, with focus turning to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.
Spot gold added 0.3% to $2,919.19 an ounce as of 1214 GMT. Safe-haven bullion has gained over 2% so far this week, its best since the week of January 20. U.S. gold futures were unchanged at $2,926.40.
Oil prices surged over $1 a barrel on Friday after Russia's Deputy PM Alexander Novak suggested OPEC+ could reverse its output hike after April if needed.
Brent crude futures rose $1.18, or 1.70%, to $70.64 a barrel by 1123 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose $1.11, or 1.67%, to $67.47 a barrel.