Posted at 06 March 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss Unemployment Rate s.a. (Feb): 2.7%, 2.7% forecast, 2.7% previous
•Sweden CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.6%, 0.4%forecast, 0.0% previous
•Sweden CPI (YoY) (Feb) 1.3% , 1.1% forecast, 0.9% previous
•Sweden CPIF (CPI at constant interest rates) (YoY) (Feb) 2.9%, 2.7% forecast, 2.2% previous
•Sweden CPIF (CPI at constant interest rates) (MoM) (Feb) 0.9%, 0.7% forecast, 0.4% previous
•HCOB Italy Construction PMI (MoM) (Feb) 48.2 50.9 previous
•HCOB Germany Construction PMI (Feb) 41.2 ,42.5 previous
•HCOB France Construction PMI (MoM) (Feb) 39.8 ,44.5 previous
•Eurozone Construction PMI (MoM) (Feb) 42.7, 45.4 forecast, 45.4 previous
•UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Feb) 44.6, 49.5 forecast, 48.1 previous
•Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction 3.507% ,2.743% previous
•Spanish 7-Year Obligacion Auction 3.067% ,2.705% previous
•German Car Registration (YoY) (Feb) -6.4% ,-2.8% previous
•EU Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) 1.5%, 1.9%forecast, 2.2% previous
•EU Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) -0.3%,0.1% forecast, 0.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:15 EU Deposit Facility Rate (Mar) 2.50% forecast,2.75% previous
•13:15 EU ECB Marginal Lending Facility 3.15% previous
•13:15 ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar) 2.65% forecast, 2.90 previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,880K forecast, 1,862K previous
•13:30 US Exports (Jan) 266.50B previous
•13:30 US Imports (Jan) 364.90B previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 234K forecast, 242K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 224.00K previous
•13:30 US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4) 1.2% forecast, 2.2% previous
•13:30 US Trade Balance (Jan) -128.30B forecast, -98.40B previous
•13:30 US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4) 3.0% forecast, 0.8% previous
•13:30 Canada Exports (Jan) 69.46B previous
•13:30 Canada Imports (Jan) 68.76B previous
•13:30 Canada Trade Balance (Jan) 1.40B forecast, 0.71B previous
•14:00 Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Feb) 46.2 previous
•14:00 Canada Ivey PMI (Feb) 50.6 47.1 previous
•14:00 Canada Leading Index (MoM) (Feb) 0.16% forecast, 0.20% previous
•15:00 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Jan) 0.7% forecast, 0.7% previous
•15:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) (Jan) 1.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:15 ECB Monetary Policy Statement
•15:15 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•20:15 UK BoE MPC Member Mann
•20:30 US Fed Waller Speaks
•21:30 US Fed's Balance Sheet
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro hovered near a four-month high against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, buoyed by optimism over Germany’s infrastructure fund and debt overhaul ahead of the ECB policy announcement. While a quarter-point rate cut is widely anticipated, markets are keenly watching for signals on the pace of future easing and ECB President Christine Lagarde’s remarks on the recent surge in government bond yields. The euro touched $1.0822, its highest since November 7, and remained steady on the day. Up 4.1% this week, the currency is on track for its biggest weekly gain since March 2009. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0820(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0902(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0772(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0657(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened on Thursday as the dollar weakened amid hopes of easing trade tensions after U.S. President Donald Trump granted a one-month exemption on 25% tariffs for Canadian and Mexican automakers, provided they comply with existing free trade rules. The risk-sensitive sterling and Australian dollar benefited, with the pound reaching a four-month high. Investors now turn their focus to the upcoming non-farm payrolls report, expected to show a 160,000 job increase in February. Sterling edged as high as $1.2906, a level last seen on November 11.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2920(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2949(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2777(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2672(50%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar hit a one-week high on Thursday, boosted by the U.S. decision to grant temporary tariff relief for automakers. The White House announced a one-month exemption from Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican automakers, provided they adhere to existing free trade rules. Meanwhile, Australia's trade surplus widened in January, fueled by a surge in gold exports, while home building approvals rose 6.3%, signaling growth in the construction sector. At GMT 12:27, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.03% to $0.6332. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6358(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6418(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6290(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6222(23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar weakened against the yen on Thursday after the U.S. granted a one-month exemption from 25% tariffs for Canadian and Mexican automakers, provided they comply with an existing free trade agreement. The White House also indicated that Trump is open to considering exemptions for other products. The new tariffs, which took effect on Tuesday, included additional duties on Chinese goods, heightening trade tensions and economic concerns. Investors now await U.S. non-farm payrolls data later this week for insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook amid escalating global trade uncertainties. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.34(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.18(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.31(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.67(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares gave up early gains and turned lower on Thursday as rising long-term bond yields pressured equities ahead of the European Central Bank’s highly anticipated rate decision.
At GMT (13:03) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 1.00 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.30 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.49 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold dropped 1% on Thursday as investors took profits after a three-day rally, while markets focused on U.S. jobs data for insights into the Federal Reserve's rate outlook amid escalating trade tensions.
Spot gold , which dipped 0.5% to $2,904.51 an ounce as of 1211 GMT, has gained over 10% year-to-date. It hit a record high of $2,956.15 on February 24.
Oil prices held steady on Thursday, rebounding slightly from a multi-year low, but Brent remained below $70 amid pressure from U.S. trade tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, along with OPEC+ plans to increase output.
Brent futures were up 28 cents, or 0.4%, at $69.58 a barrel by 0957 GMT on Thursday while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 32 cents, or 0.5%, to $66.63.