Posted at 06 March 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb) 77K ,141K forecast, 186K previous
•Canada Reserve Assets Total (Feb) 119.6B ,117.9B previous
•Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q4) 0.6%, 0.6% forecast, 0.1% previous
•US S&P Global Composite PMI (Feb) 51.6 ,50.4 forecast, 52.7 previous
•US S&P Global Services PMI (Feb) 51.0 ,49.7 forecast, 52.9 previous
•US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Jan) 3.5% ,3.5% previous
•US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Jan) 0.0% ,0.0% previous
•US Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan) 1.7% ,1.7% forecast, -0.6% previous
•US Factory Orders ex Transportation (MoM) (Jan) 0.2%, 0.3% previous
•US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Feb) 54.4 ,54.5 previous
•US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Feb) 53.9 ,52.3 previous
•US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Feb) 52.2 51.3 previous
•US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 53.5, 52.5 forecast, 52.8 previous
•US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Feb) 62.6, 60.0 forecast, 60.4 previous
•US Crude Oil Inventories 3.614M, 0.600M forecast, -2.332M previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro ascended to four-month highs on Wednesday against the U.S. dollar, as Europe's growth prospects improved after Germany's proposed infrastructure fund. The parties hoping to form Germany's next government on Tuesday agreed to create a 500 billion euro infrastructure fund and overhaul borrowing rules in a tectonic spending shift to revamp the military and revive growth in Europe's largest economy. Looking ahead, investors are also keeping an eye out for the European Central Bank policy meeting on Thursday, with traders pricing in another 25 basis point cut. The ECB has cut rates five times already since last June in a nod to quickly slowing inflation. The euro climbed 4% this week, on track for its best week since November 2022 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0558(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0598(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0483(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0421(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher on Tuesday as dollar weakened on uncertain growth outlook driven by fears about the impact of tariffs on inflation and the economy. Investors are now starting to price in the potential for outright U.S. contraction, with traders on the prediction market Kalshi currently implying a 42% chance of a U.S. recession this year. On the data front,British services firms in February cut staff at the fastest pace since 2020 ahead of tax and minimum-wage hikes that come into effect next month, an industry survey showed on Wednesday.The preliminary reading of the UK S&P Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for this month rose marginally to 51.0 in February from 50.8 in January. That was fractionally lower than an initial estimate of 51.1 and just above the 50 level that separates growth and contraction. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2764(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2825(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2681(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2630(38.2%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, extending its rebound from a one-month low, as investors weighed prospects of Canada's receiving some relief from U.S. tariffs.U.S. President Donald Trump told Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that he had not done enough to curb fentanyl smuggling in a phone call that did not appear to convince Trump to lift the punishing 25% duties on all imports from Canada and Mexico.But later in the day, The White House said that Trump will exempt automakers from the tariffs for one month as long as they comply with terms of an existing free-trade agreement between the three North American countries. The loonie was trading 0.3% higher at 1.4350 to the U.S. dollar , after trading in a range of 1.4341 to 1.4449.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4463 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4537 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4326(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4246 (Feb 25th low)
USD/JPY: The dollar remained defensive for most of the US session but lacked downward momentum. Investors took comfort in Trump's commitment to cutting taxes in a major address to Congress late on Tuesday, but voiced concerns about his continued focus on tariffs and other plans. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump vowed again to impose reciprocal tariffs from April in his first speech to Congress since taking office.However, on Wednesday, the White House walked back some of Trump's tariff announcements. The Trump administration, according to the White House, will exempt automakers from the steep 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for one month as long as they comply with the terms of an existing free-trade agreement. Immediate resistance can be seen at 149.60(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.11(38.2%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.17(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.25(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares rebounded Wednesday, led by German stocks, after the government agreed to overhaul borrowing rules to boost defense spending and support growth.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.04 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 3.38 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.56 percent.
Wall Street's main indexes closed higher Wednesday amid volatile trading, as investors welcomed signs of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and key trading partners.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.14 %percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.12% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.46% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold edged lower on Wednesday despite a weaker dollar, as investors stayed cautious ahead of U.S. payroll data, while trade war concerns kept prices above $2,900 per ounce.
Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,913.99 an ounce as of 01:41 p.m. EST (1841 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 0.2% higher at $2,926.
Oil prices fell for the fourth straight session on Wednesday as U.S. crude stockpiles rose more than expected, while concerns grew over OPEC+ output hikes in April and U.S. tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico.
Brent futures settled down $1.74, or 2.45% to $69.30 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled down $1.95, or 2.86%, to $66.31 a barrel.