Posted at 05 March 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• French Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) -0.6%, 0.5% forecast, -0.5% previous
•HCOB Spain Services PMI (Feb) 56.2, 55.4 forecast, 54.9 previous
•HCOB Italy Composite PMI (Feb) 51.9, 49.7 previous
•HCOB Italy Services PMI (Feb) 53.0, 50.9 forecast, 50.4 previous
•HCOB France Composite PMI (Feb) 45.1, 44.5 forecast, 47.6 previous
•HCOB France Services PMI (Feb) 45.3, 44.5 forecast, 48.2 previous
•HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Feb) 50.4, 51.0 forecast, 50.5 previous
•HCOB Germany Services PMI (Feb) 51.1, 52.2 forecast, 52.5 previous
•Italian GDP (YoY) (Q4) 0.6%, 0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
•Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous
•HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Feb) 50.2, 50.2 forecast, 50.2 previous
•HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Feb) 50.6, 50.7 forecast, 51.3 previous
•UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Feb) 50.5, 50.5 forecast, 50.6 previous
•UK S&P Global Services PMI (Feb) 51.0, 51.1 forecast, 50.8 previous
•Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) 0.9% , 0.6% previous
•Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) -0.4%, 0.3% forecast, 0.6% previous
•EU PPI (YoY) (Jan) 1.8%, 1.4% forecast, 0.1% previous
•EU PPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.8%, 0.3% forecast, 0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Reserve Assets Total (Feb) 117.9B previous
•13:30 Canada Labor Productivity (QoQ) (Q4) 0.6% forecast, -0.4% previous
•14:45 US S&P Global Composite PMI (Feb) 50.4 forecast, 52.7 previous
•14:45 US S&P Global Services PMI (Feb) 49.7 forecast, 52.9 previous
•15:00 US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Jan) 3.5% previous
•15:00 US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Jan) 0.0% previous
•15:00 US Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan) 1.7% forecast, -0.9% previous
•15:00 US Factory Orders Ex Transportation (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (Feb) 54.5 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (Feb) 52.3 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (Feb) 51.3 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 52.5 forecast, 52.8 previous
•15:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Feb) 60.0 forecast, 60.4 previous
•15:00 US Total Vehicle Sales (Feb) 15.60M previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 0.600M, -2.332M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•14:30 GBP BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
•14:30 GBP BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro hovered near four-month on Wednesday after Germany’s conservatives and the Social Democrats reached a landmark agreement on debt reform. Germany’s prospective coalition parties agreed on a groundbreaking €500 billion ($530.95 billion) infrastructure fund and a major overhaul of borrowing rules. This dramatic shift in fiscal policy aims to strengthen the military and stimulate growth in Europe’s largest economy. The single currency is up nearly 3% this week, already on track for its best week since November 2022, taking another leg higher after a late Tuesday announcement from the parties hoping to form Germany's next government of the planned new fund and an overhaul of borrowing rules. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0702(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0724(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0623(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0569(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened on Wednesday as dollar weakened on worries about the U.S. economy amid escalating trade tensions with Canada, China and Mexico. In his first speech to Congress since taking office, U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed his commitment to reciprocal tariffs, deepening fears of a full-blown trade war. Trump announced that additional tariffs and non-tariff measures would take effect on April 2 to counter long-standing trade imbalances. This followed the implementation of a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports on Tuesday, along with a sharp increase in duties on Chinese goods to 20%, further unsettling global markets .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2828(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2880(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2771(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2719(38.2%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as markets reacted to escalating trade tensions sparked by President Trump, who reiterated his pledge for reciprocal tariffs in his first speech to Congress.Currency markets were volatile as investors assessed the economic impact of rising global trade conflicts. Trump announced that additional tariffs, including non-tariff measures, would take effect on April 2 to address trade imbalances.The U.S. dollar initially edged higher during Trump's speech but later erased gains, dropping to 105.46, its weakest level since December 6. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6287(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6358(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6237(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6192(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar weakened against the yen on Wednesday as yen firmed after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida signaled a possible rate hike. Uchida indicated that rate hikes could proceed in line with market expectations, reinforcing speculation of a near-term increase in borrowing costs. His comments signaled the BOJ’s commitment to tightening policy despite mounting global trade tensions, including Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and higher duties on Chinese imports. Markets are now anticipating a BOJ rate hike to 0.75% by July, with a further increase to 1% expected early next year.At GMT 12.54,the dollar was down 0.23% at 149.44 against Japanese yen . Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.44(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.42(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.41(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.17(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
German indexes led strong gains in Europe on Wednesday, rebounding from sharp losses in the previous session after the government agreed to overhaul borrowing rules to boost defense spending and support economic growth.
At GMT (13:03) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.50 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 3.30 percent, France’s CAC was up by 2.03 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices inched higher on Wednesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and rising political uncertainty after Trump announced new import tariffs.
Spot gold firmed 0.1% $2,918.83 an ounce as of 0955 GMT after rising nearly 1% on Tuesday. Prices hit a record high of $2,956.15 on February 24 and have gained 11% so far this year.U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,929.70.
Oil prices fell for a third straight day on Wednesday as investors worried about OPEC+ plans to increase output in April and escalating trade tensions from Trump’s tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico.
Brent futures fell $1.02, or 1.44%, to $70.02 a barrel by 1149 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined $1.33, or 1.95%, to $66.93 a barrel.