Posted at 05 March 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Australia AIG Construction Index (Feb) -3.7, -20.0 previous
• Australia AIG Manufacturing Index (Feb) -8.2, -22.7 previous
•Australia Judo Bank Services PMI (Feb) 50.8, 51.4 forecast, 51.2 previous
•New Zealand ANZ Commodity Price Index (MoM) 3.0% ,1.8% previous
• Australia GDP (YoY) (Q4) 1.3%, 1.2% forecast, 0.8% previous
• Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.6% ,0.6% forecast,0.3% previous
• Australia GDP Capital Expenditure (Q4) 0.7%, 1.8% previous
• Australia GDP Chain Price Index (Q4) 1.4%,-0.2% previous
• Australia GDP Final Consumption (Q4) 0.5%,-0.1% previous
•Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Feb) 53.7, 53.1 forecast, 53.0 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 08:45 EUHCOB Italy Composite PMI (Feb) 49.7 previous
• 08:45 EU HCOB Italy Services PMI (Feb) 50.9 forecast, 50.4 previous
• 08:50 EU HCOB France Composite PMI (Feb) 44.5 forecast, 47.6 previous
• 08:50 EU HCOB France Services PMI (Feb) 44.5 forecast, 48.2 previous
• 08:55 EU HCOB Germany Composite PMI (Feb) 51.0 forecast, 50.5 previous
• 08:55 EU HCOB Germany Services PMI (Feb) 52.2 forecast, 52.5 previous
• 09:00 UK Car Registration (YoY) (Feb) -2.5% previous
• 09:00 Italian GDP (YoY) (Q4) 0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
• 09:00 Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous
• 09:00 EUR HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Feb) 50.2 forecast, 50.2 previous
• 09:00 EU HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Feb) 50.7 forecast, 51.3 previous
• 09:30 UK S&P Global Composite PMI (Feb) 50.5 forecast, 50.6 previous
• 09:30 UK S&P Global Services PMI (Feb) 51.1 forecast, 50.8 previous
• 10:00 Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) 0.6% previous
• 10:00 Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% forecast 0.6% previous
•10:00 EU PPI (YoY) (Jan) 1.4% forecast, 0.0% previous
• 10:00 EU PPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.3%forecast, 0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro surged to a nearly four-month high on Wednesday after Germany’s conservatives and the Social Democrats reached a landmark agreement on debt reform. Germany’s prospective coalition parties agreed on a groundbreaking €500 billion ($530.95 billion) infrastructure fund and a major overhaul of borrowing rules. This dramatic shift in fiscal policy aims to strengthen the military and stimulate growth in Europe’s largest economy. The rise in the euro kept the U.S. dollar subdued, as it struggled to recoup its losses from the previous session. Against a basket of currencies, the greenback languished near a three-month low at 105.61. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0668(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0697(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0623(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0563(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound gained on Wednesday as dollar weakened amid heightened market volatility driven by escalating global trade tensions. In his first speech to Congress since taking office, U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed his commitment to reciprocal tariffs, deepening fears of a full-blown trade war. Trump announced that additional tariffs and non-tariff measures would take effect on April 2 to counter long-standing trade imbalances. This followed the implementation of a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports on Tuesday, along with a sharp increase in duties on Chinese goods to 20%, further unsettling global markets .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2828(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2880(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2771(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2719(38.2%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday as concerns over U.S. tariffs overshadowed stronger-than-expected GDP data. The currency came under pressure after President Trump’s new tariffs took effect on Tuesday, adding to trade uncertainty. Despite this, Australia’s economy showed signs of resilience in Q4, with consumer spending boosted by tax cuts. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed GDP growth of 0.6% for the quarter, exceeding forecasts of 0.5% and marking the strongest expansion in two years. Annual growth improved to 1.3%, up from 0.8% in the previous quarter. At GMT 07:31, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.01% to $0.6274. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6281(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6358(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6237(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6192(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar weakened against the yen on Wednesday after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida signaled a possible rate hike, boosting demand for the Japanese currency. Uchida indicated that rate hikes could proceed in line with market expectations, reinforcing speculation of a near-term increase in borrowing costs. His comments signaled the BOJ’s commitment to tightening policy despite mounting global trade tensions, including Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and higher duties on Chinese imports. Markets are now anticipating a BOJ rate hike to 0.75% by July, with a further increase to 1% expected early next year.At GMT 08.54,the dollar was down 0.22% at 149.16 against Japanese yen . Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.44(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.42(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 149.41(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.17(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks advanced on Wednesday as investors balanced optimism over China’s ambitious growth targets against concerns about its sluggish economy and the escalating risk of a global trade war.
Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.16% , South Korea's KOSPI was up 1.15%,Hang Seng was up by 2.90%, China A50 was up by 0.62%
Commodities Recap
Gold recovered from earlier losses and steadied on Wednesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and increased safe-haven demand as investors assessed the potential fallout from President Trump’s new tariffs.
Spot gold was little changed at $2,915.48 an ounce as of 0730 GMT after rising nearly 1% on Tuesday, while U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $2,926.20.
Oil prices stabilized on Wednesday after plunging to multi-month lows in the previous session but remained under pressure amid plans by major producers to increase output in April and the impact of U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.
Brent futures inched 6 cents up, or 0.1%, to $71.10 a barrel at 0730 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dipped 24 cents, or 0.4%, to $68.02 a barrel.