Posted at 04 March 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Japan Jobs/applications ratio (Jan) 1.26, 1.25 forecast, 1.25 previous
•Japan Unemployment Rate (Jan) 2.5%, 2.4%forecast, 2.4% previous
•Japan Capital Spending (YoY) (Q4) -0.2%, 4.9% forecast,8.1% previous
•Japan Monetary Base (YoY) (Feb) -1.9%,-1.8% forecast, -2.5% previous
•Australia Account (Q4) -12.5B, -11.8B forecast, -13.9B previous
•Australia Net Exports Contribution (Q4) 0.2%,-0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% ,0.3% forecast, -0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 09:00 Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate (Jan) 6.2% forecast, 6.2% previous
• 09:00 Greece S&P Global Greece Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 52.8 previous
• 09:30 French Car Registration (YoY) (Feb) -6.2% previous
•10:00 Greek Unemployment Rate (Jan) 9.4% previous
•10:00 EU Unemployment Rate (Jan) 6.3% forecast, 6.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro steadied on Tuesday as traders remained on tenterhooks in the hopes of a peace deal to end the Ukraine war, with European leaders floating proposals for a truce.The single currency didn't flinch after a White House official confirmed that the United States is pausing military aid to Ukraine days after Trump clashed with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the Oval Office that unnerved investors.Investors are also keeping an eye out for the European Central Bank policy meeting on Thursday, with traders pricing in another 25 basis point cut. The ECB has cut rates five times already since last June in a nod to quickly slowing inflation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0534(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0576(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0462(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0402(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound was little changed against dollar on Tuesday as investors exercise caution on Trump tariffs. U.S. President Donald Trump's new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada took effect on Tuesday, along with a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20%, launching new trade conflicts with the top three U.S. trading partners. China responded immediately, with additional tariffs of 10%-15% on certain U.S. imports from March 10 and a series of new export restrictions for designated U.S. entities. Investors are waiting for the ADP employment report due on Wednesday and the U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday for more hints on the Fed's rate trajectory. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2744(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2815(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2627(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2538(50%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as trade war concerns pressured trade-exposed currencies. Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports, along with a duty hike on Chinese goods to 20%, escalated tensions with the U.S.’s top trading partners. Trade fears overshadowed upbeat Australian data, including a January retail sales rebound and strong net export contributions to Q4 growth. Meanwhile, the RBA’s February meeting minutes signaled a hawkish stance, cautioning that further rate cuts were not assured.At GMT 07:23, The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.50% to $0.6195. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6252(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6308(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6183(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6172(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen on Tuesday as demand for safe-haven assets surged amid growing concerns over tariff risks. Trump said on Monday he told leaders of Japan and China they cannot continue to reduce the value of their currencies as doing so would be unfair to the United States. Trump’s criticism of a weak yen and uncertainty on how his tariff threats could affect global growth may complicate the Bank of Japan's decision on how soon to raise interest rates.Japan is the latest to emerge as a potential tariff target, with Trump saying on Monday that he lambasted unspecified Japanese leaders by phone for killing their currency . Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.19(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.33(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.68(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.07(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian shares dipped on Tuesday as investors sought safety amid the implementation of new U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, heightening global trade tensions.
Japan’s Nikkei was down 1.34% , South Korea's KOSPI was down 0.15%,Hang Seng was down by 0.36%, China A50 was down by 0.88%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed over 1% on Monday, rebounding from a three-week low, as a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand fueled gains amid concerns over Trump’s tariff policies.
Spot gold gained 1.1% to $2,890.57 an ounce as of 02.04 p.m. ET (1904 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 1.8% higher at $2,901.1.
Oil prices extended losses on Tuesday after reports confirmed OPEC+ will proceed with an April output hike, while markets braced for the impact of U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, along with Beijing’s retaliatory measures.
Brent futures fell 57 cents, or 0.8%, to $71.05 a barrel at 0650 GMT, as U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude eased 39 cents, or 0.6%, to $67.98.