Posted at 03 March 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• New Zealand Terms of Trade - Exports Prices (Q4) 3.2%, 2.3%forecast, 0.7% previous
• New Zealand Terms of Trade - Exports Volume (QoQ) (Q4) 1.3%, -4.5% previous
• New Zealand Terms of Trade - Imports Prices (Q4) 0.1%,0.7%forecast, -1.7% previous
• New Zealand Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (Q4) 3.1%, 1.5% forecast, 2.5% previous
• Australia Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 50.4, 50.2 previous
• Australia MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) (Feb) -0.2%, 0.1% previous
• Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (Feb) -1.4%,1.3% previous
• Australia Business inventories (MoM) (Q4) 0.1%, 0.0% forecast, -0.7% previous
• Australia Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) (Q4) 5.9%, 1.7% forecast, -4.9% previous
• Australia Company Profits Pre-Tax (QoQ) (Q4) 4.8%,1.6% previous
• Japan au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 49.0, 48.9 forecast, 48.7 previous
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 50.8, 50.4 forecast, 50.1 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•08:15 EU HCOB Spain Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 51.3 forecast, 50.9 previous
•08:45 EU HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 46.6 forecast, 46.3 previous
•08:50 EU HCOB France Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 45.5 forecast,45.0 previous
•08:55 EU HCOB Germany Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 46.1 forecast ,45.0 previous
•09:00 EU HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 47.3 forecast , 46.6 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Monday on hopes for progress in a Russian-Ukrainian peace deal. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced on Sunday that European leaders had agreed to develop a Ukraine peace plan to present to the United States, a crucial step for Washington to provide the security guarantees Kyiv says are necessary to deter Russia. This decision came just two days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s tense meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, during which Zelenskyy cut his Washington visit short. At a summit in London, European leaders reaffirmed their strong support for Zelenskyy, promising to do more to assist Ukraine in its ongoing conflict. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0438(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0504(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0361(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0268(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound gained strength against dollar on Monday as European nations ramped up diplomatic efforts to bring peace to Ukraine. At a summit in London, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, along with leaders from France and Ukraine, revealed plans to draft a peace proposal for submission to the United States. This initiative seeks to gain U.S. backing for security guarantees that Ukraine considers crucial to counter Russian aggression. Leaders did not reveal specific details of their plan. However, before the summit, French President Emmanuel Macron informed Le Figaro that the plan would include a one-month ceasefire, covering air and sea attacks, but excluding ground combat.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2620(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2691(Feb 26th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2500(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2436(Feb 13th low)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar strengthened against dollar on Monday as risk sentiment improved largely driven by a widespread rebound in equities. The Australian dollar, often considered a liquid proxy for the Chinese yuan due to Australia’s strong trade ties with China, also saw gains following the release of stronger-than-expected Chinese PMI data. The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 50.2 in February from 49.1 a month prior, the highest since November and beating analysts' forecasts. Looking ahead, investors shifted their focus to Australia's upcoming economic growth data for the fourth quarter, set to be released on Wednesday. At GMT 06:01, The Australian dollar was last trading up 0.21% to $0.6216. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6252(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6308(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.683(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6172(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen on Monday as the greenback dipped following the Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data.U.S. consumer spending fell for the first time in nearly two years in January and the goods trade deficit widened to a record high as businesses front-loaded imports to avoid tariffs, setting up the economy for weak growth or even a contraction this quarter. Japan’s PMI is set to be released on Tuesday, while Bank of Japan Governor Ueda is scheduled to speak midweek. Investors will closely monitor both events for insights into Japan’s economic outlook and potential shifts in monetary policy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 151.21(50%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 150.07(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.81(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian share gained on Monday as investors waited anxiously to see if imminent tariffs would go ahead, while bitcoin surged on news it would be included in a new U.S. strategic reserve of crypto currencies.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 1.81 % , China SZSE Component was up by 0.36 % , Hang Seng was up by 0.33%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar, as a delay in reaching peace in Ukraine and concerns over U.S. tariff policies boosted demand for the metal as a safe haven.
Spot gold climbed 0.3% to $2,866.76 an ounce by 0303 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 1.1% to $2,880.50.
Oil prices edged higher on Monday, buoyed by positive manufacturing data from China, the world’s largest crude importer, which rekindled optimism for fuel demand.
Brent crude climbed 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $73.17 a barrel by 0439 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $70.10 a barrel, up 34 cents, or 0.5%.