Posted at 28 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• German Import Price Index (MoM) (Jan) 1.1%, 0.7% forecast, 0.4% previous
•German Import Price Index (YoY) (Jan) 3.1% ,2.7%forecast 2.0% previous
• German Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) 2.9% ,- 2.0%previous
•French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Jan) -0.5% ,-0.6% forecast, 0.7% previous
•French CPI (YoY) (Feb) 0.8%, 1.0% forecast, 1.7% previous
•French CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.2% ,0.5% forecast,0.2% previous
•French GDP (YoY) (Q4) 0.6%, 0.7% forecast, 1.2% previous
•French GDP (QoQ) (Q4) -0.1% ,-0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous
•French HICP (YoY) (Feb) 0.9%, 1.2% forecast, 1.8% previous
•French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q4) -0.3%, -0.2% forecast 0.1% previous
•German Unemployment Change (Feb) 5K ,14K forecast, 11K forecast,
•German Unemployment Rate (Feb) 6.2%, 6.2% forecast, 6.2% previous
•German Unemployment (Feb) 2.886M, 2.880M previous
•German Unemployment n.s.a. (Feb) 2.989M ,2.993M previous
•Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Jan) 0.25B ,7.84B previous
•German CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.5%, 2.3% previous
•German CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.5%, -0.2% previous
•German CPI (MoM) (Feb) 0.4% ,-0.3% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% forecast ,0.2% previous
•13:30 US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jan) 2.6% forecast , 2.8% previous
•13:30 US Goods Trade Balance (Jan) -116.90B forecast ,-122.01B previous
•13:30 US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jan) 2.5% forecast ,2.6% previous
•13:30 US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% forecast , 0.3% previous
•13:30 US Personal Income (MoM) (Jan) 0.4% forecast , 0.4% previous
•13:30 US Personal Spending (MoM) (Jan) 0.2% forecast ,0.7% previous
•13:30 US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Jan) 0.4% previous
•13:30 US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jan) -0.1% previous
•13:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Jan) 0.1% forecast , -0.5% previous
•13:30 Canada GDP Implicit Price (QoQ) (Q4) 0.60% previous
•13:30 Canada GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.3% previous
•13:30 Canada GDP (YoY) (Q4) 1.49% previous
•13:30 Canada GDP (MoM) (Dec) 0.2% forecast ,-0.2% previous
•13:30 Canada GDP Annualized (QoQ) (Q4) 1.9% forecast , 1.0% previous
•14:00 USD Dallas Fed PCE (Jan) 2.80% previous
•14:45 US Chicago PMI (Feb) 40.5 forecast , 39.5 previous
•15:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) 2.3% forecast , 2.3% previous
•16:00 Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (Dec) -22.72B previous
•16:00 Canada Budget Balance (Dec) -8.21B previous
•18:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 488 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against the U.S. dollar as market sentiment was dampened after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that his proposed tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods would take effect next week.Trump stated that his administration would soon introduce a 25% reciprocal tariff on EU goods, including cars. In response, the European Commission declared on Wednesday that the EU would react firmly and immediately to any unjustified barriers to free and fair trade, including tariffs that challenge legal and non-discriminatory policies. The euro struggled to hold above a two-week low of $1.0380.The greenback struck a two-week top of 107.37 against a basket of currencies, extending its 0.8% jump on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0529(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0551(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0435(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0323(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound fell on Friday as the dollar strengthened following U.S. President Donald Trump's recent comments on tariffs. On Thursday, Trump revealed that his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods would take effect on March 4, along with an additional 10% duty on Chinese imports, surprising markets that had anticipated a further delay. Investors are now closely monitoring U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data, due later in the day, for clues on the potential direction of U.S. monetary policy. Meanwhile, Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden expressed concerns that rising wage pressures in Britain could keep inflation above the central bank's target, although he suggested that interest rate cuts may not need to be gradual. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2695(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2735(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2593(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2515(50%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar weakened against the U.S. dollar on Friday as concerns over U.S. President Trump's upcoming tariffs triggered a sell-off in risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar. On Thursday, Trump announced that his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with an additional 10% duty on Chinese imports, would take effect on March 4. Investors are now closely monitoring the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, which is set for release later today. At GMT 12:24 The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.29% to $0.6212. For the week, the Aussie was set to lose nearly 2%, though it fared better on a monthly basis with a slight 0.3% gain. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6331(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6355(Feb 26th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6255(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6212(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged up against the yen on Friday as the greenback gained strength due to its safe-haven appeal amid ongoing trade tensions. On Thursday, President Trump announced plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports, citing China's role in the fentanyl trade, and to proceed with 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico. The new China tariffs, set to take effect on March 4, will double the previous 10% tariff Trump imposed on Chinese products earlier this month. On the data front, core consumer prices in Japan's capital increased by 2.2% in February compared to a year earlier. This marked the first slowdown in four months, attributed to revived energy subsidies, but the inflation rate still remained well above the central bank's 2% target. The dollar was up 0.20% to 150.07 against the yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.32(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.71(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.52(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.96(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares extended their losses on Friday, as market sentiment was weighed down by U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement that his proposed tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods would be implemented next week.
At GMT (12:11) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.27 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.32percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.35 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell on Friday, putting it on course for its first weekly loss in nine as the U.S. dollar strengthened and the market awaited an inflation print later in the day that could provide clarity on the Federal Reserve's policy path.
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,862.19 an ounce by 0935 GMT. Bullion lost 2.5% for the week, its steepest weekly fall since November.U.S. gold futures lost 0.8% to $2,873.90.
Oil prices fell 1% on Friday and were on track for their first monthly decline since November, as markets reacted to potential tariff threats from Washington and Iraq's decision to resume oil exports from the Kurdistan region.
Brent crude futures slipped 72 cents, or 0.98%, to $72.85 a barrel by 1013 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $69.59 a barrel, down 76 cents, or 1.08%.