Posted at 28 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.2%, 2.3% forecast, 2.5% previous
•Japan Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.9%, 3.4% previous
•Japan CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (Feb) 0.2%, -0.2% previous
•Japan Foreign Bonds Buying -200.8B, 239.6B previous
•Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks -1,038.0B, -351.9B previous
•Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) -1.1%, -1.0% forecast, -0.2% previous
•Japan Industrial Production forecast 1m ahead (MoM) (Feb) 5.0%, 1.0% forecast
•Japan Industrial Production forecast 2m ahead (MoM) (Mar) -2.0%, 1.2% forecast
•Japan Large Retailers' Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.5%, -0.8% previous
•Japan Large Scale Retail Sales YoY (YoY) (Jan) 4.0%, 3.0% previous
•Japan Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) 3.9%, 3.9% forecast, 3.5% previous
• Japan Construction Orders 12.2% 8.1% previous
• Japan Housing Starts (YoY) (Jan) -4.6% ,-2.6% forecast, -2.5% previous
• German Import Price Index (MoM) (Jan) 1.1%, 0.7% forecast, 0.4% previous
• German Import Price Index (YoY) (Jan) 3.1%, 2.7% forecast 2.0% previous
• German Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan) 2.9% ,- 2.0%previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 08:00 Swiss Official Reserves Assets (Jan) 822.6B previous
• 08:55 German Unemployment Change (Feb) 14K forecast, 11K previous
• 08:55 German Unemployment Rate (Feb) 6.2% 6.2% previous
• 08:55 German Unemployment (Feb) 2.880M previous
• 08:55 German Unemployment n.s.a. (Feb) 2.993M previous
• 09:00 Italian Trade Balance Non-EU (Jan) 7.79B previous
•09:00 EU CPI (MoM) (Feb) -0.2% previous
• 09:00 EU CPI (YoY) (Feb) 2.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against the U.S. dollar after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose 25% tariffs on imports from the European Union. Trump stated that his administration would soon introduce a 25% reciprocal tariff on EU goods, including cars. In response, the European Commission announced on Wednesday that the EU would react "firmly and immediately" to any unjustified barriers to free and fair trade, including tariffs that challenge legal and non-discriminatory policies.. The euro struggled at a two-week low of $1.0380 .The greenback struck a two-week top of 107.42 against a basket of currencies, extending its 0.8% jump on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0529(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0551(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0435(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0323(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound declined on Friday as the dollar surged following U.S. President Donald Trump's latest comments on tariffs. On Thursday, Trump announced that his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods would take effect on March 4, alongside an additional 10% duty on Chinese imports, defying market expectations of a further delay. While the escalating tariff threats have boosted the dollar, they have also raised concerns about their potential impact on the U.S. economy. Investors are closely watching the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, set to be released later in the day. Monthly non-farm payroll data is also due next week. The pound dropped 0.12% to $1.2583 but was on track to finish the month with a 1.7% gain, its best performance in five months. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2695(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2735(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2593(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2515(50%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar declined sharply against dollar on Friday as concerns over U.S. President Trump's upcoming tariffs led to a sell-off in risk-sensitive currencies like the Aussie.On Thursday, Trump announced that his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, along with an additional 10% duty on Chinese imports, would take effect on March 4. Investors will closely monitor the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, set for release later today. At GMT 07:42 The Australian dollar was last trading down 0.37% to $0.6212. For the week, the Aussie was set to lose nearly 2%, though it fared better on a monthly basis with a slight 0.3% gain. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6331(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6355(Feb 26th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6255(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6212(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged up against the yen on Friday as the greenback gained strength due to its safe-haven appeal amid ongoing trade tensions. On Thursday, President Trump announced plans to impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports, citing China's role in the fentanyl trade, and to proceed with 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico. The new China tariffs, set to take effect on March 4, will double the previous 10% tariff Trump imposed on Chinese products earlier this month. On the data front, core consumer prices in Japan's capital increased by 2.2% in February compared to a year earlier. This marked the first slowdown in four months, attributed to revived energy subsidies, but the inflation rate still remained well above the central bank's 2% target. The dollar was up 0.20% to 150.07 against the yen. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.32(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.71(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.52(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.96(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Equities slumped across Asia on Friday as concerns about an escalating global trade war soured market sentiment.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 2.90 % , China A50 was down by 1.32 % , South Korea's KOSPI was down by 3.39%,Hang Seng was down by 3.47%
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Friday, heading for their largest weekly drop since November 2024, as the dollar strengthened while investors awaited key U.S. inflation data that could provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy direction.
Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,862.05 an ounce as of 0719 GMT.U.S. gold futures eased 0.8% to $2,873.80.
Oil prices edged lower on Friday as concerns over global economic growth and fuel demand, sparked by U.S. tariff threats and signs of a U.S. economic slowdown, outweighed supply worries.
The more active May Brent crude futures slipped 31 cents, or 0.4%, to $73.26 a barrel by 0348 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $70.04 a barrel