Posted at 27 February 2025 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• French PPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.7%, 0.9% previous
• Sweden Business Confidence (Feb) 101.60, 101.10 previous
• Sweden Consumer Confidence (Feb) 95.0, 98.3 previous
• Sweden Manufacturing Confidence (Feb) 95.6, 94.8 previous
•Swiss GDP (YoY) (Q4) 1.5%, 1.6% forecast, 1.9% previous
•Swiss GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•Italian Business Confidence (Feb) 87.0, 87.0 forecast, 86.8 previous
•Italian Consumer Confidence (Feb) 98.8, 98.4 forecast, 98.2 previous
•EU M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Jan) 3.6%, 3.8% forecast, 3.5% previous
•EU M3 Money Supply (Jan) 16,754.9B, 16,726.4B previous
•EU Loans to Non Financial Corporations (Jan) 2.0%, 1.5% previous
•EU Private Sector Loans (YoY) (Jan) 1.3%, 1.2% forecast, 1.1% previous
•EU Portuguese Business Confidence (Feb) 2.7, 2.8 previous
•Italian Industrial Sales (YoY) (Dec) -7.20%, -2.50% previous
•Italian Industrial Sales (MoM) (Dec) -2.70%, 1.40% previous
•EU Business and Consumer Survey (Feb) 96.3, 96.0 forecast, 95.3 previous
•EU Business Climate (Feb) -0.74, -0.92 previous
•EU Consumer Confidence (Feb) -13.6, -13.6 forecast, -14.2 previous
•EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Feb) 21.1, 20.2 previous
•EU Selling Price Expectations (Feb) 9.8, 8.8 previous
•EU Services Sentiment (Feb) 6.2, 6.8 forecast, 6.7 previous
•EU Industrial Sentiment (Feb) -11.4, -12.0 forecast, -12.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan) 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•13:30 US Core PCE Prices (Q4) 2.50% 2.20% previous
•13:30 US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan) 2.0% forecast -2.2% previous
•13:30 US Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Jan) -2.4% previous
•13:30 US Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% forecast ,0.3% previous
•13:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 2.3% forecast, 3.1% previous
•13:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) 2.2% forecast, 1.9% previous
•13:30 US GDP Sales (Q4) 3.2% forecast, 3.3% previous
•13:30 US Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% forecast, 0.5% previous
•13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 222K forecast, 219K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 215 forecast, 25K previous
•13:30 US PCE Prices (Q4) 2.3% forecast, 1.5% previous
•13:30 US Real Consumer Spending (Q4) 4.2% forecast, 3.7% previous
•13:30 Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Dec) 5.03% previous
•13:30 Canada Current Account (Q4) -3.2B forecast, -3.2B previous
•15:00 USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jan) -0.9% forecast, -5.5% previous
•15:00 USD Pending Home Sales Index (Jan) 74.2 previous
•15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -276B forecast, -196B previous
•16:00 USD KC Fed Composite Index (Feb) -5 previous
•16:00 USD KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) -9 previous
•16:30 USD 4-Week Bill Auction 4.245% previous
•16:30 USD 8-Week Bill Auction 4.235% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•16:45 US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks
•20:15 US FOMC Member Harker Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro slipped against the U.S. dollar as traders adopted a cautious stance following President Trump's announcement on Wednesday of a potential 25% reciprocal tariff on European cars and other goods. Trump also suggested that tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods could be implemented on April 2, pushing back the original March 4 deadline. Meanwhile, Germany's Social Democrats (SPD) agreed to start talks on a coalition with Friedrich Merz's conservatives, but emphasized that their support was not guaranteed, criticizing his negotiation style. The SPD also elected Lars Klingbeil as its new parliamentary leader after suffering its worst post-war defeat in Sunday's election. Investors are keen to see what demands the SPD will make for joining the government and whether parties will agree on a new defense fund and changes to borrowing limits, known as the debt brake. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0529(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0551(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0435(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0323(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound was little changed on Thursday as traders awaited developments after U.S. President Trump threatened 25% reciprocal tariffs on European goods. Attention also turned to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's upcoming meeting with Trump at the White House later in the day, where security and a potential ceasefire in Ukraine would be discussed. Earlier in the week, Starmer signaled the UK’s commitment to increasing defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, aiming to show Trump the UK's seriousness about bolstering its military expenditure. Sterling was last at $1.2674 against the dollar, little changed on the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2695(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2735(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2593(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2515(50%fib)
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dropped on Thursday as uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s fluctuating tariff policies strengthened the U.S. dollar. On Wednesday, Trump proposed a 25% reciprocal tariff on European cars and other goods, while also hinting at a potential one-month delay on the heavy tariffs for imports from Mexico and Canada. On the data front, Australian business investment unexpectedly declined in the December quarter, with a slowdown in mining and construction offsetting growth in data centers, pointing to a slight drag on economic growth. At GMT 13:06 the Australian dollar was last trading down 0.14% to $0.6296.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6331(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6355(Feb 26th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6255(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6212(Lower BB).
USD/JPY:The dollar rose slightly against the yen on Thursday but gains were capped ahead of a key inflation print that could offer clues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Investors are also looking for cues on U.S. monetary policy, with several officials due to speak later in the day and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index due on Friday. The consensus forecast was for a PCE monthly index of 0.3%, unchanged from December 2024, according to a poll. Markets expect the Fed to deliver at least two rate cuts this year, with about 55 basis points of easing priced in for 2025. Meanwhile, Japan's top currency official, Atsushi Mimura, stated on Wednesday that the recent yen appreciation aligned with positive economic data, reflecting Tokyo's belief that the yen's rebound is consistent with an improving economy, which could support potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.32(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.71(50%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.52(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 147.96(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares dropped on Thursday as a broader selloff was triggered by a sharp decline in automobile stocks.
At GMT (13:19) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.31 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.68 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.37 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices surged by more than 1% on Thursday as supply concerns resurfaced triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to revoke a license previously granted to U.S. oil major Chevron to operate in Venezuela.
Brent crude oil futures were up 86 cents, or 1.19%, at $73.39 a barrel by 1240 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 78 cents, or 1.14%, to $69.40.
Gold prices dropped more than 1% to their lowest in over a week on Thursday as the U.S. dollar strengthened, with investors awaiting a crucial inflation report that could provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy decisions.
Spot gold was down 1% at $2,889.13 an ounce by 1127 GMT, its lowest since February 17. Prices hit a record peak of $2,956.15 on Monday, driven by safe-haven flows.U.S. gold futures lost nearly 1% to $2,901.50.